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jwither

What was this person thinking?

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jwither

This is a current auction lot at Heritage, 82 "details" ZAR shillings in NCS holders graded VF to AU.  All dates except 1893.

https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/republic-82-piece-lot-of-certified-shillings-ngc-/p/3088-58411.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

Probably submitted close to 10 years ago before the YE 2011 market peak but even though the price level was a lot higher, hard to believe the cost would have been worth it.  

What a waste of money.

Here is a second, somewhat better but really not worth grading either.  Most are in the old holders, indicating submission years ago also when the price level was higher.  This lot is also destined to be bought by a dealer for "wholesale".

https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/world-coins/114-piece-lot-of-certified-assorted-proof-and-circulation-issues-1943-1964-ngc-total-114-/p/3088-58412.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

There are also multiple other multiple coin lots including six 1923 MS-66 farthings and two 1938 6D proofs in PR-62.  The second one is very unusual considering the mintage is only 44.

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Pierre_Henri
On 9/30/2020 at 4:05 PM, jwither said:

This is a current auction lot at Heritage, 82 "details" ZAR shillings in NCS holders graded VF to AU.  All dates except 1893.

https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/republic-82-piece-lot-of-certified-shillings-ngc-/p/3088-58411.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116

Probably submitted close to 10 years ago before the YE 2011 market peak but even though the price level was a lot higher, hard to believe the cost would have been worth it.  

What a waste of money.

Here is a second, somewhat better but really not worth grading either.  Most are in the old holders, indicating submission years ago also when the price level was higher.  This lot is also destined to be bought by a dealer for "wholesale".

https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/world-coins/114-piece-lot-of-certified-assorted-proof-and-circulation-issues-1943-1964-ngc-total-114-/p/3088-58412.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

There are also multiple other multiple coin lots including six 1923 MS-66 farthings and two 1938 6D proofs in PR-62.  The second one is very unusual considering the mintage is only 44.

I see there is also an upcoming 1931 proof set - but cannot see if there is an indication of what they expect it will sell for?

 https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/world-coins/george-v-8-piece-certified-silver-and-bronze-proof-set-1931-ngc-total-8-/p/3088-99001.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

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CapeCurrencyCoin

I remember those days ,approximately 10 yrs ago,buyers were paying a premium for basically any coin that was "slabbed",even if it was a low grade details coin,there seemed to be a fascination with having a coin in a holder.It led to some "dealers" sending coins en masse not even bothering to try and work out what the grades were beforehand, it didnt matter, they were chasing "finest knowns" and when 90% of the coins returned as low grade or defective or details it mattered little as long as they "hit" with a few coins that they could then sell at astronomical prices(the Mandela R5 coins is a good example of this crazy locally engineered frenzy), because the market was paying high prices for high grades and finest knowns, whilst still offering a fair return for low grade coins that should never have been sent in the first place...but those coins were sent because in many cases those submitting to NGC didnt know how to grade them, and since it seemed there was easy money by simply submitting coins for grading ,then it didnt matter whether they had the ability to grade for themselves  or even had an interest in coins. The obvious result was that many speculators with no interest(other than financial) entered the market because they didnt need to have any skills, however as more and more graded coins have entered the market and buyers have become more discerning, as well as it becoming clear that there are not enough collectors around to affect the market values positively, so the majority of graded coins now seem like they must have been a complete waste of money to grade since they dont even fetch prices that would return the grading fees . At the time of course it made complete sense ,because somehow the SA market contrived to completely skew reality and create a frenzy that simply wasnt sustainable, and all we have been seeing is the inevitable correction year after year ever since, a correction that I think will continue for a while still. The positive(possibly) aspect is that as "values" drop so those speculators and "collectors" who have no real interest, drop out.

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jwither
10 minutes ago, CapeCurrencyCoin said:

I remember those days ,approximately 10 yrs ago,buyers were paying a premium for basically any coin that was "slabbed",even if it was a low grade details coin,there seemed to be a fascination with having a coin in a holder.It led to some "dealers" sending coins en masse not even bothering to try and work out what the grades were beforehand, it didnt matter, they were chasing "finest knowns" and when 90% of the coins returned as low grade or defective or details it mattered little as long as they "hit" with a few coins that they could then sell at astronomical prices(the Mandela R5 coins is a good example of this crazy locally engineered frenzy), because the market was paying high prices for high grades and finest knowns, whilst still offering a fair return for low grade coins that should never have been sent in the first place...but those coins were sent because in many cases those submitting to NGC didnt know how to grade them, and since it seemed there was easy money by simply submitting coins for grading ,then it didnt matter whether they had the ability to grade for themselves  or even had an interest in coins. The obvious result was that many speculators with no interest(other than financial) entered the market because they didnt need to have any skills, however as more and more graded coins have entered the market and buyers have become more discerning, as well as it becoming clear that there are not enough collectors around to affect the market values positively, so the majority of graded coins now seem like they must have been a complete waste of money to grade since they dont even fetch prices that would return the grading fees . At the time of course it made complete sense ,because somehow the SA market contrived to completely skew reality and create a frenzy that simply wasnt sustainable, and all we have been seeing is the inevitable correction year after year ever since, a correction that I think will continue for a while still. The positive(possibly) aspect is that as "values" drop so those speculators and "collectors" who have no real interest, drop out.

Agree 100%.  I have expressed similar sentiments many times.

If coins I want to buy ever sell for prices I am willing to pay, I would consider making it my second series (after pillar coinage).  I haven't bought much SA in 10 years now.

An example is a 1925 PCGS MS-63 2/6 on eBay right now.  It's a quality coin with good luster and a strong strike.  But at $1750, I'd guess close to 100% overpriced relative to what it should sell outside of SA in a real auction.  A 1935 NGC MS-63 2/6 sold recently on eBay for $790, probably it's "true" value.  Also a very nice coin (good luster and toning) and I believe it's only somewhat more common.

I don't check BoB often but when I do, not much I would even consider buying even if reasonably priced which it isn't.  Elsewhere, supply has mostly dried up for Union, just as pre-2007.  ZAR is still available as always.

Often hard to tell from images, but most of the supply I see appears inferior to average quality, regardless of what grade is on the holder label.  ZAR is better in my experience but most Union coins below MS-63 look mediocre. 

Some coins also don't belong in their holder, even if the grade is "right". Check out the 1928 PCGS MS-65 Florin on eBay right now.  The coin has really good luster and clean surfaces but if it's really uncirculated, has a terrible strike for a KGV florin in that grade.  I'd never pay $3350 USD for it.  It's a really nice coin, but not at that price.

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jwither
3 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

I see there is also an upcoming 1931 proof set - but cannot see if there is an indication of what they expect it will sell for?

 https://coins.ha.com/itm/south-africa/world-coins/george-v-8-piece-certified-silver-and-bronze-proof-set-1931-ngc-total-8-/p/3088-99001.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

They should be posting estimates soon, though I can't remember which auctions include one as not all do.

This set and the other better Union are all in the November monthly auction.  Says a lot about where the market is now, as I doubt the consignor wouldn't rather wait until January during NYINC or FUN which is a much bigger event.

I have other competing priorities but if the price is right, I'd be interested in a few of the 1933 proofs.  Difficult coins to buy.

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Pierre_Henri
On 10/1/2020 at 9:01 PM, jwither said:

They should be posting estimates soon, though I can't remember which auctions include one as not all do.

This set and the other better Union are all in the November monthly auction.  Says a lot about where the market is now, as I doubt the consignor wouldn't rather wait until January during NYINC or FUN which is a much bigger event.

I have other competing priorities but if the price is right, I'd be interested in a few of the 1933 proofs.  Difficult coins to buy.

I see that they have put an estimate of US$ 18 000 on it (including the buyers fee). That is approximately R300 000.

I sold my 1931 proof set  in 2015 on BoB to Randcoin for almost exactly that amount - R305 000 if I remember correctly.

The copper issues were comparable regarding their grades, but this set offered now is noticeably superior to my silver coins - here are the grades ...

1) Farthing (1/4 Penny) - PR65 Brown
2) 1/2 Penny - PR65 Brown
3) Penny - PR64 Brown
4) 3 Pence - PR64
5) 6 Pence - PR65+
6) Shilling - PR66
7) 2 Shillings (Florin) - PR65
😎 2-1/2 Shillings - PR65

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jwither
On 11/2/2020 at 10:10 AM, Pierre_Henri said:

I see that they have put an estimate of US$ 18 000 on it (including the buyers fee). That is approximately R300 000.

I sold my 1931 proof set  in 2015 on BoB to Randcoin for almost exactly that amount - R305 000 if I remember correctly.

The copper issues were comparable regarding their grades, but this set offered now is noticeably superior to my silver coins - here are the grades ...

1) Farthing (1/4 Penny) - PR65 Brown
2) 1/2 Penny - PR65 Brown
3) Penny - PR64 Brown
4) 3 Pence - PR64
5) 6 Pence - PR65+
6) Shilling - PR66
7) 2 Shillings (Florin) - PR65
😎 2-1/2 Shillings - PR65

I believe there is a decent chance the 1931 set will sell.  Prices are notably weaker now versus 2015 but a reserve of $18,000 USD with buyer's fee is still doable.

The 1933 half crown has a bid and no reserve.  The image doesn't make it look that nice but it's a rare difficult to buy coin.

I don't believe the other four 1933 proofs will sell but particularly the farthing.  It's priced as if there is no distinction between the proofs and circulation strikes (combining rarity of both) when South Africans collectors seemed to buy proofs as substitutes.  Not sure but don't believe this is as common now. 

None of these coins are much if any scarcer than the 1935.  It has a higher "reputational scarcity" versus the 1935 but the reported mintages are identical and the TPG population counts are about the same also.  Heritage sold a full 1935 set (quite nice) for somewhat over $20,000 USD a few years ago.  I'd pass on all four.

Edited by jwither

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jwither

1933 PR 3D sold at the opening bid for a total of $6K.  Too much for me but a vastly better value than the 1896 MS-60 pond for the same price.  I have no idea what that buyer was thinking because this coin isn't close to being scarce and MS-60 isn't an attractive grade either.

1931 set didn't sell either.  If someone reading this really wants it, try making an offer.

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