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dcdoberman

New 5 rand scam, bigger and better !

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GROOVIE COINS

So are the queues as long as the one depicted on the R5? Goes to show a sucker is born every minute.

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jwither

I have read similar stories here in the past.  Notice it's always about modern RSA coinage or the SA Coin Shop but never about BoB sellers (including SA coin dealers) trying to rip off their buyers by offering Union or ZAR at absurdly inflated prices?  Don't believe me?  Go look at listings on this site now.

And to anticipate any potential rebuttal, its only a difference in degree.

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GROOVIE COINS
On 8/24/2019 at 3:59 PM, jwither said:

I have read similar stories here in the past.  Notice it's always about modern RSA coinage or the SA Coin Shop but never about BoB sellers (including SA coin dealers) trying to rip off their buyers by offering Union or ZAR at absurdly inflated prices?  Don't believe me?  Go look at listings on this site now.

And to anticipate any potential rebuttal, its only a difference in degree.

Yes fly by night sellers becoming far too common on the site. Perhaps it's ignorance, not knowing the value of coin and listing it at an absurd price or perhaps they are deliberately trying to con people. 

I think more often than not these are people who have found these coins from circulation and stubbornly believe them to be of more value than they are.

regards Robert

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jwither
11 hours ago, GROOVIE COINS said:

Yes fly by night sellers becoming far too common on the site. Perhaps it's ignorance, not knowing the value of coin and listing it at an absurd price or perhaps they are deliberately trying to con people. 

I think more often than not these are people who have found these coins from circulation and stubbornly believe them to be of more value than they are.

regards Robert

Sorry, but that's not what I am talking about at all.  I'm not naming names but you can look at the Union and ZAR listings yourself.  Some are presumably collector resellers and a few are established dealers.

In my last post, I specifically mentioned Union and ZAR coinage, not RSA circulation finds or any similar coin.  What I am describing has been going on for years though how long I don't know since I don't look at BoB listings that often.

It's a double standard.  The examples cited previously on this forum most often are much worse (SA Coin Shop and South Africa Coin Company) but the ones I am talking about are completely ignored here.

What I would like to know is, what is the reputation of the "hobby" in your country among the general public?  If it's what I think it is, what I am describing is a primary reason for it.  What I am describing is a form of "rent seeking" where sellers attempt to realize outsize profits at someone else's expense.  Either that, or trying to transfer their loss when they badly overpaid.  Either way, anyone who buys one of these coins will be hopelessly "buried" in it financially.

During the bubble years, many overpaid.  Well, most them are almost certainly never returning to "collecting".

Edited by jwither

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testrarossa
1 hour ago, jwither said:

What I would like to know is, what is the reputation of the "hobby" in your country among the general public?  If it's what I think it is, what I am describing is a primary reason for it.  What I am describing is a form of "rent seeking" where sellers attempt to realize outsize profits at someone else's expense.  Either that, or trying to transfer their loss when they badly overpaid.  Either way, anyone who buys one of these coins will be hopelessly "buried" in it financially

What you’re describing isn’t unique to the “hobby”. It could be that sports car or that apartment in the city that you paid overinflated prices for because it’s a sound investment. 

Sellers in any type of market can name their price. It’s up to them if they want to be buried with what they selling or not. As the buyer it’s still your responsibility to do your homework or you ll be paying school fees.

12 hours ago, GROOVIE COINS said:

Yes fly by night sellers becoming far too common on the site. Perhaps it's ignorance, not knowing the value of coin and listing it at an absurd price or perhaps they are deliberately trying to con people. 

I think more often than not these are people who have found these coins from circulation and stubbornly believe them to be of more value than they are.

 regards Robert

I think you are spot on. I find it really sad for the buyer and seller. For different reasons. 

Looking at most of the major coin dealers in SA websites they clearly state they do not buy R5 coins. They must be inundated with queries.

 

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jwither
1 minute ago, testrarossa said:

What you’re describing isn’t unique to the “hobby”. It could be that sports car or that apartment in the city that you paid overinflated prices for because it’s a sound investment. 

Sellers in any type of market can name their price. It’s up to them if they want to be buried with what they selling or not. As the buyer it’s still your responsibility to do your homework or you ll be paying school fees.

I don't disagree with you with your last paragraph.  I completely disagree with your first paragraph because under no circumstances are the coins covered by the selling behavior I am describing good "investments".  Absent another bubble which I have predicted was a "one shot" deal which won't be repeated, anyone who buys the coins I am describing will lose most of their money.

The point of my initial reply was to highlight that in reading this forum, someone might get the idea that this is mostly a problem with recent RSA coinage, the SA Coin Shop or brokers such as the South African Coin Company.  I'd guess more people lost more money this way but it doesn't change what I am telling you.

I am aware that buyers should perform their due diligence, regardless of what they buy but from the standpoint of the hobby in your country, doesn't make any difference in what I am telling you.  

Over the last five years or so, in one breadth I hear how terrible the coin market is because prices have crashed.  I'm not aware of a single coin where this doesn't apply, though it might not be evident since most coins sell so infrequently, not at all, or not in a public sale.

I hear these sentiments and then I see how BoB sellers are trying to rip off the buyer with outlandish ask prices.  Buyers who overpay are presumably ignorant or gullible fools but after being ripped off, are still likely done "collecting" for good.  Not only that, they likely share their negative experience with (many) others and then this forum expresses surprise at the state of the hobby.

Here is my description of the environment in South African collecting today.  It's an opportunity to participate in the equivalent of a financial casino (represented by unstable wildly fluctuating prices) with frequently "rent seeking" selling practices where the seller tries to make a windfall at the buyer's expense.  It doesn't matter to traditional hobbyists because their cumulative outlay usually isn't what I would describe as material and presumably, they like what they buy enough even if they lose money.

To those who spend what I would describe as noticeable amounts, what motive do they have? Contrary to the sentiments expressed here, a low minority of the more expensive coins are actually interesting as collectibles but it has absolutely nothing to do with the TPG grade.    

 

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testrarossa
17 hours ago, jwither said:

I don't disagree with you with your last paragraph.  I completely disagree with your first paragraph because under no circumstances are the coins covered by the selling behavior I am describing good "investments".  Absent another bubble which I have predicted was a "one shot" deal which won't be repeated, anyone who buys the coins I am describing will lose most of their money.

Yes that’s exactly it because under no circumstances are the all the sport cars/properties/art good investments either. And their selling behaviour could be embarrassing too. Guessing that only a small minority makes a good profit. Coins are really no different. What I see is capitalism at work. You see a item for sale at a price. You can either buy it or negotiate a better price. Or you don’t buy it. I use the last one most of the time. 

Agree on the rest of your informative post as usual. 

Collectors will roughly know how much a certain coin retail for and buy according to their budget. Speculators are like stock/share traders. Both are known to bet big occasionally. 

 

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jwither
3 hours ago, testrarossa said:

Yes that’s exactly it because under no circumstances are the all the sport cars/properties/art good investments either. And their selling behaviour could be embarrassing too. Guessing that only a small minority makes a good profit. Coins are really no different. What I see is capitalism at work. You see a item for sale at a price. You can either buy it or negotiate a better price. Or you don’t buy it. I use the last one most of the time. 

Agree on the rest of your informative post as usual. 

Collectors will roughly know how much a certain coin retail for and buy according to their budget. Speculators are like stock/share traders. Both are known to bet big occasionally. 

 

For the coins I have looked at on Bob, the opportunity to negotiate will vary.  In the worst examples, I don't see any realistic possibility of coming to an agreement where the buyer won't immediately be financially buried.  The difference between "market" and ask is far too wide.  It's one thing to be "buried" in a highly desirable coin but this doesn't apply to hardly any of the coins I describe.

On occasion, I have been somewhat interested in making an offer, even when the seller doesn't indicate they are accepting any.  But if I did, they might consider it insultingly low.

Here is an example for you.

One of the scarcer Union coins in AU-58 is (or was) offered at R15,000.  (It was available last week.) Been offered at least for months at this price.  It also  appears to be the same coin previously offered for several years by another seller at R12,000.

During this time, the count has increased noticeably in AU-58 and somewhat in MS.  It's still very low by US standards but not really versus coins that are known to be scarce from elsewhere, including those from series with a higher preference (outside of South Africa).

You see that?  Even while the market has moved noticeably lower and the TPG population count has increased, the ask price has INCREASED.  The only logic to this selling behavior that I can see is that the seller is "fishing", doesn't need the money and isn't really serious about selling the coin.

How much is this coin worth to me?  Maybe R7000 or about $500 USD which is likely more than the coin would actually sell for in a true auction.  The only other price I have for this coin is about $4000 USD for the "grade rarity" MS-64 about five years ago but the count was proportionately much lower, the coin is noticeably better and the market though weak, noticeably better than now.

I don't know how much this coin is worth and frankly given the lack of data, I don't believe anyone else does either.  That's part of the problem with collecting coinage that doesn't sell frequently.  It's also true of the pillars I have profiled but the difference is that it's a series with better credentials (to most collectors) including being noticeably scarcer.  

Aside from this selling practice I am describing, what I also see is the much lower price level reduces what's available to buy.  For most of this coinage, there is hardly any point in bothering.  Concurrently, most buyers are very price sensitive and seem unwilling to take much risk.  Some of it may be because they can't afford it but for the better coinage, I attribute it mostly to limited if any interest in collecting.

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testrarossa
19 hours ago, jwither said:

For the coins I have looked at on Bob, the opportunity to negotiate will vary.  In the worst examples, I don't see any realistic possibility of coming to an agreement where the buyer won't immediately be financially buried.  The difference between "market" and ask is far too wide.  It's one thing to be "buried" in a highly desirable coin but this doesn't apply to hardly any of the coins I describe.

On occasion, I have been somewhat interested in making an offer, even when the seller doesn't indicate they are accepting any.  But if I did, they might consider it insultingly low.

Here is an example for you.

One of the scarcer Union coins in AU-58 is (or was) offered at R15,000.  (It was available last week.) Been offered at least for months at this price.  It also  appears to be the same coin previously offered for several years by another seller at R12,000.

During this time, the count has increased noticeably in AU-58 and somewhat in MS.  It's still very low by US standards but not really versus coins that are known to be scarce from elsewhere, including those from series with a higher preference (outside of South Africa).

You see that?  Even while the market has moved noticeably lower and the TPG population count has increased, the ask price has INCREASED.  The only logic to this selling behavior that I can see is that the seller is "fishing", doesn't need the money and isn't really serious about selling the coin.

How much is this coin worth to me?  Maybe R7000 or about $500 USD which is likely more than the coin would actually sell for in a true auction.  The only other price I have for this coin is about $4000 USD for the "grade rarity" MS-64 about five years ago but the count was proportionately much lower, the coin is noticeably better and the market though weak, noticeably better than now.

I don't know how much this coin is worth and frankly given the lack of data, I don't believe anyone else does either.  That's part of the problem with collecting coinage that doesn't sell frequently.  It's also true of the pillars I have profiled but the difference is that it's a series with better credentials (to most collectors) including being noticeably scarcer.  

Aside from this selling practice I am describing, what I also see is the much lower price level reduces what's available to buy.  For most of this coinage, there is hardly any point in bothering.  Concurrently, most buyers are very price sensitive and seem unwilling to take much risk.  Some of it may be because they can't afford it but for the better coinage, I attribute it mostly to limited if any interest in collecting.

Make that offer and don’t feel like you insulting anyone. If the seller is fishing as you claim maybe he’s the one insulting? He can only say no or make you an counter offer. Maybe as he’s fishing your offer been the best and he accepts. You never know unless you ask. If he rejects move on. Life too short. Agree on the rest as I also see it. 

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