Life of a legend Protea series

[GROOVIE COINS 22]

Good day collectors

On the SAmint website it mentions this year's Protea coin depicting Madiba and his grandchild will be wrapping up the Life of a Legend series. So the series has seen a respectable 6 coins paying homage to Nelson Mandela and in my opinion it is good that the mint is completing the series. Not just because the coin market is already saturated with Madiba themed coins and medals of all sorts, official and unofficial. But because I feel a smaller series with only 6 coins is easier for the average joe to get into, even though the low mintages and high prices keep these coins out of reach. 

So where to from here?

We've seen animals in the gold natura series, and once again the current Big 5 crowns and even this theme is not new, the 94 conservation rand and various other bullion medals come to mind. There have also been historical events and anniversaries which started off the protea series followed by Nobel winners and other political personalities. Sports has been covered in both the Protea and Crown series, along with various industrial, transport and innovations.

 

So what does the future hold for numismatics from the South African mint?

Regards Robert

[jwither 17]

7 hours ago, GROOVIE COINS said:

So what does the future hold for numismatics from the South African mint?

Probably the same as the recent past, as long as buyers will keep on paying premiums for the junk they keep putting out.   This comment also applies to other mints, including the US where I live.

I am not aware of evidence to support either position (pro or con) but I don't believe this practice does much of anything to promote collecting.  It isn't like the themes are really interesting.  It provides the "industry" with "product" to sell in the secondary market and on occasion speculative opportunities for "flippers" but not much else.

Personally, I consider it a negative since I don't believe the collector base is growing much if at all.  If so, the only thing it does is reduce demand for previously existing coinage resulting in a lower price level for most everything else.  Much of it is almost certainly bought by novice collectors or non-collectors who will be dissatisfied when they later sell it at a likely loss.

There is so much of this product that decades from now, overwhelmingly most of it will be forgotten, lost in obscurity no matter how "rare" and "low" the mintage.

[GROOVIE COINS 22]

15 hours ago, jwither said:

I am not aware of evidence to support either position (pro or con) but I don't believe this practice does much of anything to promote collecting.  It isn't like the themes are really interesting.  It provides the "industry" with "product" to sell in the secondary market and on occasion speculative opportunities for "flippers" but not much else.

Personally, I consider it a negative since I don't believe the collector base is growing much if at all.  If so, the only thing it does is reduce demand for previously existing coinage resulting in a lower price level for most everything else.  Much of it is almost certainly bought by novice collectors or non-collectors who will be dissatisfied when they later sell it at a likely loss.

There is so much of this product that decades from now, overwhelmingly most of it will be forgotten, lost in obscurity no matter how "rare" and "low" the mintage.

The SA mint can certainly do more to promote the hobby of collecting past issues, but they are not interested in the least because it might and probably will affect sales on current issues. I think they concern that any focus on past releases might detract from current releases. 

I've said it before, I was so impressed when coin dealer Karoo Bucksy took the initiative to do special packaging for old coins like pennies and current circulation coins. These coins don't warrant the expense of grading, but there is still a place for them. Nicely housed in cards with elaborate artwork that complements the coin theme. 

With the new coins being issued this year commemorating the 25th anniversary of democracy, the mint has released a fold card that houses all 6 coins for you to place them as you receive them through circulation. Outstanding idea, but can't we have that for all the commemorative coins released since 94? Everybody has them in draws and jars, why not present them properly. Let's go a step further, can we have a official book or file for silver rands since 1965 and protea rands, or even circulation coins for every year? I would love a official R2 file to collect all from 1989 to date. Something like this will give coins their due, such as how uncommon the 1993 to 1996 two rands are and how hard it is to get them. This will never happen because these are old releases and wouldn't benefit the mint in the short term.

Edited June 28, 2019 by GROOVIE COINS

[jwither 17]

Grading has little to do with actual collecting, as counterfeits aren't an issue for most coins, attribution isn't necessary for most coins, and collectors don't need anyone else to tell them which coins they like or like better either.  Grading is predominantly marketing, whether it is the TPG grade on the label or registry sets.

The packaging you described is also a form of marketing.  It can be used to promote real collecting but the drawback is that it represents a disproportionate amount of a low budget collector's collecting budget if applied to their collection generally.  In the US, the "official books" you are describing are issued by private companies as folders and albums. 

This is what turned US collecting into a mass market starting in the 1930's.  However, the internet is eventually going to (virtually) eliminate this type of collecting because buyers are no longer limited to the limited selection they had access to in the past and the coins most often collected using this format aren't remotely interesting enough to maintain their current preference.  .  It is almost certainly going to be a very limited minority of the collector base.  In your country, I doubt it would do much to promote collecting either.  I have heard comments here that awareness of the hobby is much lower but still don't believe that the base isn't noticeably larger for this reason.  I presume that if coin dealers in SA thought it would work, they would have attempted to introduce it.

[Pierre_Henri 121]

From the June 2019  Pietermaritzburg Coin Society's Newsletter  ...

"The SA Mint has lost the plot according to Carl. As numismatic subjects Mandela and the Big Five were initially hugely successful. By persisting with these themes the Mint is flogging dead horses. Rodney concurs and, should Carl and the other dealers decided to warn the Mint of growing market dissatisfaction, he will confirm that American collectors are losing their enthusiasm for South African coins."

Yea well, what did we all predict a year of 4 ago?

The SA Mint (in my personal view) does not have one single person in their employment who are remotely interested in numismatics and even capable of spelling the word correctly...

They are just churning out Mandela coins to the point of over-suffocating the already fragile market ...

As I understand it, the SA Mint has also stopped attending the SA coin shows (in the past, for example, they attended these shows to do the over-striking of the highly popular modern silver tickey series) 

They have all gone down the drain - the SAA, SAPO, SAP, TRANSNET, ESKOM, e.g., --- and now the SA MInt is probably following  this same horrible downward spiral.

 

[jwither 17]

I'd be curious to know the context of these dealer comments.  I presume that they are referring to authorized resellers in the US who sell SA NCLT. 

If so, this is a very competitive market and South Africa must compete with established competitors such as RCM, Royal Mint, Australia, Mexico and China.  This is addition to the ASE and all the other cr*p put out by the US Mint each and every year.

It would be one thing if collecting in South Africa was (or is) growing but I doubt it.  In a flat or shrinking market, the only thing newly issued NCLT does is displace demand for existing coinage since buyer (notice I didn't just say collector) budgets aren't increasing or increasing proportionately.

The SA Mint (and US mint with it) can't do much if anything to promote collecting, as their "product" has limited if any appeal to most real collectors, as opposed to speculators. 

In the US, the State Quarters (SQ) program starting in 1999 was a huge success but that's primarily or exclusively due to the fact that US coinage hadn't changed much since 1965.  Since then, the quarter design has changed every few months and numerous changes have occurred to other denominations.  Commemoratives recognizing dubious events with undistinguished historical significance or mediocre artistic merit are issued for at least two themes every single year.  Bullion NCLT has expanded in multiple.  Concurrently since 2008 when the SQ program ended, the US coin price level has stagnated, at least partly for the reason I gave above.

As in South Africa, the most recent generation of US collectors has seen constant change in their circulating coinage most or their entire life.  It doesn't seem to have done much of anything to stimulate collecting either.

Edited July 1, 2019 by jwither

[Timeless Value 10]

I don't think the SA Mint did well with the Life of the Legend series considering the negative backlash of the Mandela R5 coins where lots of people lost money. The Life of Legend series was suppose to run for 10 years but was shortened to 6 years. The demand for Mandela coins is probably at its all time low. This is evident in the mintage figures that is available. If one looks at the cheapest Mandela coin sold by the SA Mint , then it would probably be the Silver R1 Uncirculated variety at an average price of +/-R400. The mintage numbers on the Life of Legend series R1 Silver Unc coin is as follows 2013 - 940, 2014 - 342, 2015 - 215 and 2016 - 318. With time these will be increasingly difficult to find and therein lies a good risk vs reward opportunity. 

 

[jwither 17]

16 minutes ago, Timeless Value said:

I don't think the SA Mint did well with the Life of the Legend series considering the negative backlash of the Mandela R5 coins where lots of people lost money. The Life of Legend series was suppose to run for 10 years but was shortened to 6 years. The demand for Mandela coins is probably at its all time low. This is evident in the mintage figures that is available. If one looks at the cheapest Mandela coin sold by the SA Mint , then it would probably be the Silver R1 Uncirculated variety at an average price of +/-R400. The mintage numbers on the Life of Legend series R1 Silver Unc coin is as follows 2013 - 940, 2014 - 342, 2015 - 215 and 2016 - 318. With time these will be increasingly difficult to find and therein lies a good risk vs reward opportunity. 

 

Maybe, but other than the low mintage, why would anyone care?  I ask as I don't even know what these coins look like.  I also agree that the coins will probably be difficult to find in the future, but mostly or entirely because owners of low mintage coins seem to have an above average tendency to have an inflated opinion of the merits, especially in South Africa.  Scarcity (even rarity) is irrelevant for a coin nobody really wants.

As another example, there are several coins from the US First Spouse series with mintages around 2,000.  Much more expensive coin since it's 1/2oz gold but it's evident hardly anyone wants it either.  Undoubtedly though, most of the current demand is almost certainly coming from speculators who also own it due to the low mintage, not collectors who actually want it as a collectible.

[GROOVIE COINS 22]

12 hours ago, Timeless Value said:

I don't think the SA Mint did well with the Life of the Legend series considering the negative backlash of the Mandela R5 coins where lots of people lost money. The Life of Legend series was suppose to run for 10 years but was shortened to 6 years. The demand for Mandela coins is probably at its all time low. This is evident in the mintage figures that is available. If one looks at the cheapest Mandela coin sold by the SA Mint , then it would probably be the Silver R1 Uncirculated variety at an average price of +/-R400. The mintage numbers on the Life of Legend series R1 Silver Unc coin is as follows 2013 - 940, 2014 - 342, 2015 - 215 and 2016 - 318. With time these will be increasingly difficult to find and therein lies a good risk vs reward opportunity. 

 

I've always maintained that the Life of a legend silver proteas are sleepers. Once people get over the proof hype and realize those mirror fields mean nothing once a coin has tarnished then there will be an appreciation for the uncs in the series. I've said it before, the only difference between the unc and proof coins are the mirror field and over frosted device. Have a look at the high relief on the protea wreath on the unc's obverse to see the level of detail in the coin. 

[GROOVIE COINS 22]

12 hours ago, jwither said:

Maybe, but other than the low mintage, why would anyone care?  I ask as I don't even know what these coins look like.  I also agree that the coins will probably be difficult to find in the future, but mostly or entirely because owners of low mintage coins seem to have an above average tendency to have an inflated opinion of the merits, especially in South Africa.  Scarcity (even rarity) is irrelevant for a coin nobody really wants.

As another example, there are several coins from the US First Spouse series with mintages around 2,000.  Much more expensive coin since it's 1/2oz gold but it's evident hardly anyone wants it either.  Undoubtedly though, most of the current demand is almost certainly coming from speculators who also own it due to the low mintage, not collectors who actually want it as a collectible.

Even though the Madiba coin series has been overkilled (I think everybody welcomes the break at this stage), Mandela still carries a lot of weight (much more relevance in this country, than a first lady would have in the States, there is simply no comparison). Just as you have not seen a protea rand, I could go around randomly and show it to people and I feel almost certain 10 out of 10 people would not have seen such a coin before. There millions upon millions of people in this country that have not been properly introduced to the hobby or even the investment of coin collecting. I don't know if it's the South African Mint doing a poor job at promoting collecting or if it's us as a numismatic society that is falling short, but more needs to be done.

[jwither 17]

7 hours ago, GROOVIE COINS said:

Even though the Madiba coin series has been overkilled (I think everybody welcomes the break at this stage), Mandela still carries a lot of weight (much more relevance in this country, than a first lady would have in the States, there is simply no comparison). Just as you have not seen a protea rand, I could go around randomly and show it to people and I feel almost certain 10 out of 10 people would not have seen such a coin before. There millions upon millions of people in this country that have not been properly introduced to the hobby or even the investment of coin collecting. I don't know if it's the South African Mint doing a poor job at promoting collecting or if it's us as a numismatic society that is falling short, but more needs to be done.

Two points:

One:  I am aware of the difference between a Mandela coin and my example but don't think it makes any difference.  There are so many coins now with his portrait or theme that it's irrelevant.  It would be one thing if this coinage was limited to maybe the 2000 "Smiley Face" and the 2008 BD 5R but it isn't.  Even then, both of these coins are so incredibly common except using an artificial standard such as the TPG grade and both lack much appeal except to speculators.  Creating "made rare" commemorative coins may potentially create profitable speculative opportunities (I don't believe so longer term) but it won't do anything else.  It does absolutely nothing to promote actual collecting.  Also, though the mintage on these coins is noticeably lower than the examples I gave and the coins cost much less, the US collector base is potentially 200 times larger (more than the difference in the scarcity, a lot more) and US collectors are used to paying the price of a First Spouse coin.

Two: The limited collecting interest in your country has little to do with lack of promotion by either the SA Mint or the hobby (that is, dealers or coin clubs).  This subject is discussed here (primarily by you and me recently) but also on US coin forums, regularly. 

US forum members also lament the apparent declining interest in collecting evident in the price level.  However, there isn't much if anything to be done about it.  In the US at least, it  isn't because people don't know about collecting but because they would rather spend their time and money elsewhere.  Numismatics isn't as competitive as it used to be due to many more alternatives.  Contrary to what collectors presumably want to believe, most people don't find much appeal in collecting trinkets (coins), especially since much of today's "collecting" is tied to a marketing gimmick, the TPG grade and registry sets.  This doesn't mean that the collector base has to decrease or the price level must decline, it just means that it is more likely to do so.

In South Africa, the root cause is also cultural, regardless of the explanation anyone wants to use.  I have heard that much of the public might not know the hobby even exists but even if they did, I don't see why they will have interest in collecting circulating coinage when I see little if any interest (apart from yours) among existing collectors on this forum.  I also don't see why they would have much interest in ZAR, Union or earlier RSA which isn't available in circulation either.  Going by the cheap prices for scarce coins such as that 1925 PCGS AU-53 2/6 I mentioned recently, it's apparent existing collectors don't really care either.

[Pierre_Henri 121]

23 hours ago, jwither said:

 Even then, both of these coins are so incredibly common except using an artificial standard such as the TPG grade and both lack much appeal except to speculators.  Creating "made rare" commemorative coins may potentially create profitable speculative opportunities (I don't believe so longer term) but it won't do anything else. 

Of late, the value lies in high (very high) grade graded Union Coins - I sold a 1943 Farthing in  top grade for R4000+ last week whilst the "catalog value" for it in "unc " is R350. 

Ten+ times it "catalogue " value

So really top coins are selling for extraordinary prices because well-off collectors are gunning for them.

Never underestimate the power of those with large pockets going for the very best.

But...

If I could find a 1931 Union 2-shilling (Florin) even in the most modest of details-grades, I would  be a serious contestant too.

The very best and the very scarce will keep on getting shocking high prices....

[jwither 17]

8 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Of late, the value lies in high (very high) grade graded Union Coins - I sold a 1943 Farthing in  top grade for R4000+ last week whilst the "catalog value" for it in "unc " is R350. 

Ten+ times it "catalogue " value

So really top coins are selling for extraordinary prices because well-off collectors are gunning for them.

Never underestimate the power of those with large pockets going for the very best.

But...

If I could find a 1931 Union 2-shilling (Florin) even in the most modest of details-grades, I would  be a serious contestant too.

The very best and the very scarce will keep on getting shocking high prices....

How does the price of this 1943 farthing compare to prior prices since 2011?   Before 2011? 

My guess is there limited or no prior sales history or it isn't public.  In any event, I don't think this a very good example of "large pockets", as R4000 is less than $300 USD and doesn't require a very affluent collector to buy it.  Most of the coins I have bought in the last three years are a low multiple of this price (three in the last two months) and I am hardly rich.

What you are describing isn't "of late", but exactly the same behavior since I joined this forum in 2009 or 2010.  It is also a sign of market weakness, not strength.  Outsized multiples for the "grade rarity" over one or a few grades lower doesn't represent a healthy collector market.  Neither does paying outsized premiums for any MS over better AU versus paid by collectors in every other country.

All this proves is that there is no market depth, not interest in actual collecting.  I don't know if or when it will happen but if the price level doesn't improve substantially "eventually", coins like the example you used are going to turn out to be huge financial losers, just like most SA coins have been since the 2011 peak.  The current generation of collectors has "grown up" with TPG but ultimately, holder labels on a piece of plastic aren't enough to maintain interest in the hobby, even for more affluent collectors.  

I'm not buying any South African coins now.  However, I do see some that I think represent reasonable collectible values on Heritage and eBay, even though I concurrently know the latter are almost certainly noticeably "above market" since no one in your country is buying it.  I'm waiting for the global asset bubble to burst which I think will bring noticeably lower prices across the board and then I'll consider buying.  Almost certainly mostly better KGV, especially 1/-, 2/- and 2/6.  Really like these coins.

Agree on the 1931 Union florin, IF the ask price would be reasonable.  History indicates it won't be.  It's definitely a coin I'd like to buy.

Edited July 5, 2019 by jwither

[Pierre_Henri 121]

The coin sold for ten times its "catalogue" value.

The coins catalogue value is R350

The coin sold for R4 000+

There was an underbidder that offered R 4000 for the coin but he lost out (a second bidder)

R4,000.00   23 Jun 20:01   JohGru787060

My statement was ...

"So really top coins are selling for extraordinary prices because well-off collectors are gunning for them"

Over to you ...............

"All this proves is that there is no market depth, not interest in actual collecting.  I don't know if or when it will happen but if the price level doesn't improve substantially "eventually", coins like the example you used are going to turn out to be huge financial losers, just like most SA coins have been since the 2011 peak.  The current generation of collectors has "grown up" with TPG but ultimately, holder labels on a piece of plastic aren't enough to maintain interest in the hobby, even for more affluent collectors. " 

Maybe American coin forums are different, but over here in SA we really do not need continuous negative comments relating to a country that wishes (and are seriously struggling) to keep its head above the water level and are battling from drowning in negativity on a daily basis.

Let's rather keep the hobby going...

[jwither 17]

4 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

The coin sold for ten times its "catalogue" value.

The coins catalogue value is R350

The coin sold for R4 000+

There was an underbidder that offered R 4000 for the coin but he lost out (a second bidder)

R4,000.00   23 Jun 20:01   JohGru787060

My statement was ...

"So really top coins are selling for extraordinary prices because well-off collectors are gunning for them"

Over to you ...............

"All this proves is that there is no market depth, not interest in actual collecting.  I don't know if or when it will happen but if the price level doesn't improve substantially "eventually", coins like the example you used are going to turn out to be huge financial losers, just like most SA coins have been since the 2011 peak.  The current generation of collectors has "grown up" with TPG but ultimately, holder labels on a piece of plastic aren't enough to maintain interest in the hobby, even for more affluent collectors. " 

Maybe American coin forums are different, but over here in SA we really do not need continuous negative comments relating to a country that wishes (and are seriously struggling) to keep its head above the water level and are battling from drowning in negativity on a daily basis.

Let's rather keep the hobby going...

Good grief, I didn't say anything negative.  You've said the same thing multiple times in the past just because you don't like my posts. The only thing your reply demonstrates is that my post is contrary to your personal preference.

Collecting in your country is pre-occupied with money.  There isn't any doubt about it.  That's a problem and it has nothing to do with my "negative" posts.  Collecting in your country needs to look in the mirror for the source of the problem, not at me who sees right through the marketing hype.

The focus in "collecting" you described based upon the TPG grade has nothing to do with actual collecting or the "hobby".  You've been  a collector long enough to know it.  There isn't a question for most coins being authentic and no collector needs anyone to tell them which coins to like better either.  It's a pure marketing contrivance designed to exaggerate the significance and inflate the price level as much as possible.

How can I know what I state is correct?  Contributors on US forums react exactly the same as you did on occasion to my posts.  US coins are disproportionately a lot more common than South African but they also find a need to exaggerate the significance of what they collect and like.  

A decline in the price level doesn't mean the actual hobby is in trouble.  It just means that it will be (a lot) less profitable for those who make a living at it and the buyers who overpaid will lose money.  Nothing more and nothing less.

[Pierre_Henri 121]

On 7/7/2019 at 11:27 PM, jwither said:

Good grief, I didn't say anything negative. 

In your mind, you probably did not do that in the past decade or so on this forum.

...Said anything negative about our poor performing coinage prices, never ushered a word about the slumpy outlook for our coins  .. never pointed fingers on how bad an investment this SA coin was or how terribly bad that one did... How sorry the future for South African coins look ... 

It wasn't you ...

Sorry for  confusing you with whomever ...

[Cold Sea 9]

On 7/7/2019 at 11:27 PM, jwither said:

but they also find a need to exaggerate the significance of what they collect and like.

This is true in all instances, with marketing the key creating labels and crazes of all sorts. With a slack economy such as we have at the moment, collectables seems to take a back seat, even with many the low priced items around. But I guess it also shows that the international market is not as big in our collectables as we would like to believe. For instance yesterday a copy of Rev Dower's book, in very good condition and with the Griqua Note in place, sold for $473 .00  (+-R6 600.00) including commission & VAT. I thought this was a very good price.

The SA Mint thinking is marketing the Mandela series knowing that it is an item that sits well with tourism and locals, all the while "exaggerating the significance". From a business point of view, what's wrong with that. The irony here is that a socialist leaning government is putting capitalism to good use. The Mint issues local coinage with designs that promote the political landscape of the day on order from the Reserve Bank. As a manufacturer then, is it their place to actively promote past issues.

[Pierre_Henri 121]

On 7/19/2019 at 6:21 PM, Cold Sea said:

For instance yesterday a copy of Rev Dower's book, in very good condition and with the Griqua Note in place, sold for $473 .00  (+-R6 600.00) including commission & VAT. I thought this was a very good price.

I was just Googling the Internet and saw that Scott Balson thinks the note is worth R140 000.00 

".....Copies of the note intact in Dower's 1902 book are worth at least US$10,000 - the lack of sellers has meant that this price has never been tested...."

(An example sold for R11 500 in 2013 on BidorBuy)

The one you are mentioning sold for nearly half of that so at about 5% of Balson's estimation?

[Cold Sea 9]

17 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Scott Balson thinks the note is worth R140 000.00 

Now that really is what you call "exaggerate the significance".

[Pierre_Henri 121]

7 hours ago, Cold Sea said:

Now that really is what you call "exaggerate the significance".

In  Brian Hern's "South African Banknotes and PaperMoney" (The section regarding the pre- Reserve Bank period), he does not mentions the Griqua note, so I  think that it is only regarded as a fantasy piece by some - called a Cinderella issue in Philatelist circles.

But I think it is very beautiful and very collectible. 

[coinoisseur 14]

17 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

In  Brian Hern's "South African Banknotes and PaperMoney" (The section regarding the pre- Reserve Bank period), he does not mentions the Griqua note, so I  think that it is only regarded as a fantasy piece by some - called a Cinderella issue in Philatelist circles.

But I think it is very beautiful and very collectible. 

Hi Pierre

The Griquatown Pound banknote is listed in Brian Hern banknote book. The note itself, although never used is extremely rare. Attached to the book in original condition is even rarer. There were only 100 books done by the Rev Dower and many of the book were destroyed by the Griqua people because they did not agree with some of the things published. So I am told.

 

Regards

[Pierre_Henri 121]

5 hours ago, coinoisseur said:

Hi Pierre

The Griquatown Pound banknote is listed in Brian Hern banknote book. The note itself, although never used is extremely rare. Attached to the book in original condition is even rarer. There were only 100 books done by the Rev Dower and many of the book were destroyed by the Griqua people because they did not agree with some of the things published. So I am told.

 

Regards

For some unknown reason, Hern’s Banknote Catalogue, only partly follows the normal indexing norm (A to Z)

He starts with A and ends with the last letters of the alphabet but in-between he chops and changes – it drives a reader crazy!

The Griqua note (on page 98) is hidden somewhere between “D” and “O” so one must actually page through the whole catalogue to find it and then discover that there is an index on page 166 that also falls apart on the second page when from the letter “N” onwards it is just a random lot of entrees until “O” and then order is restored with the normal indexing.

 Brian is a legend, but who on earth is proof reading his catalogues?

Whatever – here is the note (thank you Anthony)

(For old time followers of this forum – did you notice that Scott Balson has blown up the value of the note to a laughable degree – R140 000 (although it did NOT circulate) but he downgrades the Griqua coinage to zero value (although it also did NOT circulate in his mind)

Why does he do that?

Anyone wishes to buy a Strachan & Co Token?

[jwither 17]

On 7/16/2019 at 1:39 PM, Pierre_Henri said:

In your mind, you probably did not do that in the past decade or so on this forum.

...Said anything negative about our poor performing coinage prices, never ushered a word about the slumpy outlook for our coins  .. never pointed fingers on how bad an investment this SA coin was or how terribly bad that one did... How sorry the future for South African coins look ... 

It wasn't you ...

Sorry for  confusing you with whomever ...

This is an interesting response coming from you.  On numerous prior occasions, you claimed it is "just a hobby" and the financial outcome doesn't matter.  But whenever I express sentiments contrary to your personal preference, I am being "negative".  I suppose it isn't really just a hobby and the financial outcome does matter.   Who could have imagined that? 

As for the sentiments in my prior posts you reference, I primarily did so to counteract the blatant endemic "cheerleading" on this site up to a few years ago; the posts disproportionately promoting the most relatively overvalued coins  and  worst collectible values.  That's why I wrote that one lengthy multiple post topic in late 2015 or 2016.  You also ignore the fact that I have been proven almost if not entirely correct.  As opposed to the previous "cheerleaders" who have been proven to be mostly if not completely wrong.  Guess that doesn't matter either, does it?

Secondly, because the coins I profiled were (and in many instances still are) awful relative values.  The subsequent price performance proved it.  But then, perhaps it would have been better if I had agreed with the financial "cheerleading" on this forum so that an even bigger number of gullible buyers could have lost even more money. 

I don't know what the future of South African collecting holds if by this someone is referring to the real hobby and not the price level.  That's the trouble with both USA and South African "collecting" in that the primary advocates mostly don't really care about hobbyists but financial buyers because that's where the profit comes from.

As I stated in that one topic discrediting the financial promoters, if it really was about collecting, then collectors in your country should be elated at the much improved affordability.  I don't recall seeing this sentiment being expressed even once but if it was, it occurred in isolation versus the far too numerous instances where the opposite sentiment has been expressed.

I'll close with a quote from a prior Coin Week article which is apparently forgotten in the USA and South Africa both, more often than not.

"It is our belief that the industry is best served by taking this to heart and leaving the gimmicks at the door. Prices do not dictate the viability of the coin market. The fascination of coins and related objects does."

http://www.coinweek.com/opinion/at-the-ana-many-attempts-to-bridge-the-coin-collecting-divide/

[jwither 17]

On 7/19/2019 at 12:21 PM, Cold Sea said:

This is true in all instances, with marketing the key creating labels and crazes of all sorts. With a slack economy such as we have at the moment, collectables seems to take a back seat, even with many the low priced items around. But I guess it also shows that the international market is not as big in our collectables as we would like to believe. For instance yesterday a copy of Rev Dower's book, in very good condition and with the Griqua Note in place, sold for $473 .00  (+-R6 600.00) including commission & VAT. I thought this was a very good price.

The SA Mint thinking is marketing the Mandela series knowing that it is an item that sits well with tourism and locals, all the while "exaggerating the significance". From a business point of view, what's wrong with that. The irony here is that a socialist leaning government is putting capitalism to good use. The Mint issues local coinage with designs that promote the political landscape of the day on order from the Reserve Bank. As a manufacturer then, is it their place to actively promote past issues.

I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.  Sure, given the amount of money involved in some instances, I expect some level of financial promotion but then you can read the quote in my last post above.

I'm not talking just about TPG labels or the speculation in recent RSA coinage which is my inference from your post.  I'm referring to the core of the TPG "collecting" model.

This subject is taboo in both South Africa and the US as to question it brings the whole price level and price structure into question and with it, the merits of the more expensive coins as "investments".  Can't have that, can we?

Measured by the price level, I believe both markets (SA and US) are in trouble and the reason for it is exactly as I stated, it's predominantly a marketing gimmick from start to finish, artificial and isn't remotely sufficient to maintain interest in most coinage, except when the price level is increasing or at least stable.  Well, for a variety of reasons, that's hasn't or isn't likely to happen.

Edited August 25, 2019 by jwither

[Cold Sea 9]

On 8/25/2019 at 4:44 AM, jwither said:

I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.

I think we are, marketing, of which TPG is just one of the tools. But there is little or no current marketing for the Griqua note which I used as an example. This is a true collectors item, and I think the price it sold for is a reflection of the collector's market rather than the speculator's market you are talking about. Even if the note was TPG graded, I believe, it still would not have made much difference in the price it sold for.