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dcdoberman

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dcdoberman

There are somethings stranger than fiction .... 

I was going through last night's Crazy Wednesdays auction when I notices something mind bogglingly strange , an au53 2008 SA five rand coin sold at R 2555 ! That's 500 times more than a ungraded  mint state coin would be valued at and 100 times more than a graded ms 65 would sell at.  By this rational I should immediately unbox my au 1892 zar 5 shilling whither it down to say vg , as then it would be pop1 and I'll be a billionaire if I were to sell this coin and buy the same coin in mint state.

As I don't collect modern coinage I might be missing something , but this seems so strange to me I'm sure I'm missing something really big, please advise am I  losing my mind ......

Or was it just CRAZY WEDNESDAY and everything's OK now?

Regards

Screenshot_2019-02-28-08-30-11.png

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jwither

I don't think you missed anything.  Just another ignorant buyer and nothing more, along with multiple additional ignorant bidders.  I remember at least one person who commented on these "rare" grades here on this forum.  I'm not sure if they were actually ignorant or just didn't want to believe the truth. 

I have read a lot of posts from a lot of people on this forum who apparently didn't want to believe the truth.  All they wanted to believe is that their collection would make them rich or  a lot of money.  Almost all of them were buying Union or ZAR too, not Mandela coinage where the long term outcome is to sell at or near face value.

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Pierre_Henri
On 3/3/2019 at 6:44 AM, jwither said:

I don't think you missed anything.  Just another ignorant buyer and nothing more, along with multiple additional ignorant bidders.  I remember at least one person who commented on these "rare" grades here on this forum.  I'm not sure if they were actually ignorant or just didn't want to believe the truth. 

I have read a lot of posts from a lot of people on this forum who apparently didn't want to believe the truth.  All they wanted to believe is that their collection would make them rich or  a lot of money.  Almost all of them were buying Union or ZAR too, not Mandela coinage where the long term outcome is to sell at or near face value.

The funny thing is that in auctions, it always takes two to tango - there were actually two people who competed for that coin in the end...

I know that buyer, and he is probably looking for that particular grade to complete his graded collection of that series.

Money is not that important for the well-off that wished to fill the gaps in their collection(s).

They would probably say that it is better spending it on something you love and treasures than wasting it on other things that is irrelevant to them.

 

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dcdoberman

So you are suggesting  some people (more than one) are now solely collect plastic holders not coins ?

This coin 2008 five rand sold tonight ( crazy Wednesday ) in ms65 @ 43 rand , that is  50x less than an au53  last week  and we all know a ms65 can very easily become a au53 , but an AU 53 can never become a ms65 . 

I'm still totally confused and I can only hope and pray this is not a trend , because if it is the hobby is as dead as a dodo.

Screenshot_2019-03-06-21-26-51.png

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GROOVIE COINS
11 hours ago, dcdoberman said:

So you are suggesting  some people (more than one) are now solely collect plastic holders not coins ?

This coin 2008 five rand sold tonight ( crazy Wednesday ) in ms65 @ 43 rand , that is  50x less than an au53  last week  and we all know a ms65 can very easily become a au53 , but an AU 53 can never become a ms65 . 

I'm still totally confused and I can only hope and pray this is not a trend , because if it is the hobby is as dead as a dodo.

 

The hobby is alive... These bidders (all three of them) probably have MS65 and as Pierre mentioned, need to fill the gaps. Or it's just a case of healthy competition. We've all been in a bidding war where we refuse to give an inch.

What happens when a unstoppable object hits an immovable one? R2555 for a circulated Madiba R5, that's what happens... 

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dcdoberman

I can understand if someone would pay a high premium to "fill the gap" when upgrading , but downgrading from ms65 to au53 seems insane and I'm sure 99.99 % of the world's coin collecting fraternity would agree.

How would a conversation between seller and purchaser go ? 

Maybe something like this?

Purchaser: "I'm looking for a 2008 south african 5 rand coin."

Seller: "It's your lucky day, I have I nice ms65  graded by ngc (for your protection) @ 43 rand"

Purchaser :" no , no don't you have anything more worn "

Seller : " I have a au53 ,but that's 2555 rand,  because you know there's a much smaller pop on that coin as there's very few people stupid enough to submit their change to ngc."

Purchaser : " well that sounds fantastic I'll take it , as I've never seen a more beautiful coin , don't these 5 rand coins look fantastic worn?"

Sorry if I hurt anybody's feelings , but I hate this coin so much for the damage it has done to SA coin collecting. It seems like it will only continue without something being said often about its total lack of any numismatic value.

Regards

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Pierre_Henri

I don’t want to be misunderstood.

 I have been one of the first advocates of the Mandela R5 disaster awaiting collectors a decade or more ago on this forum. I knew the bubble would burst and said that timelessly.  Nobody on this forum disagreed with that and we were actually all in occurrence – it was a no brainer. (Exactly like the Bitcoin disaster that happened recently)

However, there are a few hard core Mandela R5 collectors left who wishes to complete their collections IRRESPECTIVE of the numismatic value of the coin(s).

As an example – of the 15 157 Inauguration R5 coins graded as non-proofs, guess how many have been graded under XF45?

Only one single coin.

Is the coin scarce? No – not by a million.

Is the grade scarce – Yes – very scarce.  Actually exceedingly scarce.

There is only one single coin in that grade and IF YOU ARE A COLLECTOR of grades – then you will be competing vigorously with other hard-core collectors to secure that grade.

Some people collect shrunken heads from New Guinea and others the poop of Elvis left in a forgotten bag.

Why is it then so difficult to understand that when it comes to collecting coins, some people have other tastes than the majority of us?

Each to his own I say.

Regards

Pierre

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jwither
On ‎3‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 6:24 AM, Pierre_Henri said:

I don’t want to be misunderstood.

 I have been one of the first advocates of the Mandela R5 disaster awaiting collectors a decade or more ago on this forum. I knew the bubble would burst and said that timelessly.  Nobody on this forum disagreed with that and we were actually all in occurrence – it was a no brainer. (Exactly like the Bitcoin disaster that happened recently)

However, there are a few hard core Mandela R5 collectors left who wishes to complete their collections IRRESPECTIVE of the numismatic value of the coin(s).

As an example – of the 15 157 Inauguration R5 coins graded as non-proofs, guess how many have been graded under XF45?

Only one single coin.

Is the coin scarce? No – not by a million.

Is the grade scarce – Yes – very scarce.  Actually exceedingly scarce.

There is only one single coin in that grade and IF YOU ARE A COLLECTOR of grades – then you will be competing vigorously with other hard-core collectors to secure that grade.

Some people collect shrunken heads from New Guinea and others the poop of Elvis left in a forgotten bag.

Why is it then so difficult to understand that when it comes to collecting coins, some people have other tastes than the majority of us?

Each to his own I say.

Regards

Pierre

The XF-45 grade isn't scarce unless you are now going to tell me that literally almost none of the coins have circulated.  The grade is "scarce" because it isn't worth the bother of submitting it since the coins are worth less than the grading fee.

What you are describing is SOMEWHAT like "low ball" collecting here where collectors attempt to find otherwise common US coins graded PO-01.  However, the only reason I see for this practice is that the US coins that most can both find and afford are so incredibly common generically and still very common in "high quality" that they invented this contrivance out of pure boredom to amuse themselves.

However, South African Union and ZAR are both much scarcer and much cheaper, so I am not sure if it a similar sentiment or another reason.

Edited by jwither

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jwither
On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 3:03 PM, dcdoberman said:

So you are suggesting  some people (more than one) are now solely collect plastic holders not coins ?

This coin 2008 five rand sold tonight ( crazy Wednesday ) in ms65 @ 43 rand , that is  50x less than an au53  last week  and we all know a ms65 can very easily become a au53 , but an AU 53 can never become a ms65 . 

I'm still totally confused and I can only hope and pray this is not a trend , because if it is the hobby is as dead as a dodo.

Screenshot_2019-03-06-21-26-51.png

My answer to your question is "yes" even though I don't know the bidders or their motives.  Such "collecting" is a pure contrivance.

In the US and South Africa both, there are a lot of plastic buyers, though both claim otherwise.  Marginal quality differences represented by proximate higher TPG grades (and CAC stickers here) have almost nothing to do with collecting and everything to do with money.  I don't follow collecting elsewhere (outside of auction listings) but from what I can see, those who place an outsized emphasis on TPG are the absolute worst when it comes to exaggerating the merits of what they both like and collect.  The only motivation I can see for it is to rationalize inflated price spreads and to attempt to inflate the price level as much as possible.

Recently, I started posting on the PCGS forum since NGC and this one are both dead.  Without even trying, I got into another debate with someone who "took exception" to my characterization that scarcity from the TPG grade is predominantly an exaggeration.  I haven't posted there in a few weeks as I get sick and tired of this collective farce where those who subscribe to it PRETEND it's such a big deal when it isn't.  And for those who claim otherwise, name me one other collectible field where lower standards are used.  There are a few candidates for equally low standards (where TPG also predominates) but not a single one lower to my knowledge.

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Pierre_Henri

One have two choices when it comes to collecting coins:-

First choice: - Go for  the money and think, hope and pray  that collecting coins will make you rich - - talk and talk about this and that investment in coins until you turn blue ...Be besotted with the concept of "investing"  in coins --  Do that day after day and month after month and year after year - stick to the topic of how this and that coin was a good or bad investment. 

Your second choice  - enjoy collecting coins...

Pierre

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jwither
2 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

One have two choices when it comes to collecting coins:-

First choice: - Go for  the money and think, hope and pray  that collecting coins will make you rich - - talk and talk about this and that investment in coins until you turn blue ...Be besotted with the concept of "investing"  in coins --  Do that day after day and month after month and year after year - stick to the topic of how this and that coin was a good or bad investment. 

Your second choice  - enjoy collecting coins...

Pierre

Agreed.

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