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GROOVIE MOVIES

Collecting change

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GROOVIE MOVIES

Good day

 

It would be interesting to see what coin collecting (more specifically every day change) will be like a few years from today. It's the most inexpensive hobby you can get and so many many practice it (jars in draws), even if people don't often pay attention to finer details such as dates or varieties. 

The modern nickel plated copper coins are hardy and stick around for years... I'm not sure if the mint bothers melting and re minting these days, but I'm guessing not many are lost to wear. Finding a 1989 R2 for example is still commonplace today, even though these coins are pushing 30 years. That being said, it is safe to say that even a lower mintage like say the 2001 R5 will remain around for a long time. 

But what makes any of the R5 dated between 2000 and 2003 stand out? I found it was the new coat of arms (new coat of arms are often associated with the bi-metal R5). So even though 2 million annually is not a low mintage, the fact that these coins were only minted for 4 years surely makes it noteworthy.

I noticed the other day from my MTB book that between 1992 to 1996, fewer R2 pieces were struck as well. Will these be considered key dates someday? Will future generations look back and ask why these coins were never held back from circulation, just as previous generations have asked when looking at those scarce coins from the 1930's?

Commemorative coins stand out for themselves as these will always be collected. I think it will be the less obvious coins that you may have held in your very pocket, that raises eyebrows from collectors in the years to come.

regards Robert

 

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GROOVIE MOVIES

Just for curiosity I looked up the mintages of the second decimal series 20 cents and found 1970 and 73 with numbers less than 20 000 (probably only ever released in mint packs). Only one listing on BOB going for 30 bucks. It's nearly 50years later and clearly these didn't raise any eyebrows.

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jwither
5 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

Just for curiosity I looked up the mintages of the second decimal series 20 cents and found 1970 and 73 with numbers less than 20 000 (probably only ever released in mint packs). Only one listing on BOB going for 30 bucks. It's nearly 50years later and clearly these didn't raise any eyebrows.

I will answer this post first.

20,000 mint sets (or mint packs as you locals call it) isn't a low number.  I have multiples of the 1973 since I was in standard one that year, at Parkhurst Elementary in Johannesburg.  I own multiples from 1972-1974 as these were the years I Iived in your country.

RSA also has the weakest collective preference in your country, by far.  It will take substantial attrition before any RSA with an original mintage of 20,000 increases in price, especially if most did not circulate.

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jwither
5 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

Good day

 

It would be interesting to see what coin collecting (more specifically every day change) will be like a few years from today. It's the most inexpensive hobby you can get and so many many practice it (jars in draws), even if people don't often pay attention to finer details such as dates or varieties. 

The modern nickel plated copper coins are hardy and stick around for years... I'm not sure if the mint bothers melting and re minting these days, but I'm guessing not many are lost to wear. Finding a 1989 R2 for example is still commonplace today, even though these coins are pushing 30 years. That being said, it is safe to say that even a lower mintage like say the 2001 R5 will remain around for a long time. 

I'd hardly call anyone dumping their change in a jar a "collector".  There are probably at least several billion coins stored in a similar manner all over the planet from every single country.

The reason this happens is because:

Locally in your country as in the USA, the coins have no purchasing power.  I go out of my way to avoid using coinage for this reason.  I carry more "folding money" (notes) with me than most Americans but never carry any change at all due to the minimal purchasing power and because the weight over time can put holes in your clothing pockets.  I'll only pay with cash if I don't receive change.  

People travel to other countries, don't spend all the local currency and can't convert it when they return.  So it gets dumped into a change jar or a sock drawer indefinitely.

As for how long coinage stays in circulation, it isn't unusual to see quarters (25c) back to 1965, the year of the change over from silver to base metal.  Nickels (5c) certainly before 1965.  Many of these coins are wearing out from extended usage but I don't know the withdrawal practice as I haven't read up on it.

As we discussed before, variety in coinage can be a plus to stimulate collecting but I believe up to a point only.  The variety in South African coinage since at least 1994 and here since 1999 is so frequent that it is equally likely that non-collectors are numbed by it.  People are so used to it they don't find the variety in designs unusual.  Additionally, the designs here are disproportionately so artistically unappealing that I am dubious that it helps interest either.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
51 minutes ago, jwither said:

I will answer this post first.

20,000 mint sets (or mint packs as you locals call it) isn't a low number.  I have multiples of the 1973 since I was in standard one that year, at Parkhurst Elementary in Johannesburg.  I own multiples from 1972-1974 as these were the years I Iived in your country.

RSA also has the weakest collective preference in your country, by far.  It will take substantial attrition before any RSA with an original mintage of 20,000 increases in price, especially if most did not circulate.

These mint packs mean nothing to people these days. It's as if the third decimal series has brought a total disregard for collecting second decimal coinage. You can see this in the lack of graded nickel business strikes. I was once told by a gold dealer that he removes the silver rands from mint packs for melting and discards the rest. I was stunned on every level. All everybody wants to hear, do you have 1965 50cent and 1 cent? Even bullion dealers know these are the key dates. Nevermind the set looks somewhat dull with only two coins in it.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
1 hour ago, jwither said:

I own multiples from 1972-1974 as these were the years 

Make sure your coins don't have pvc damage. It was commonplace for these mint packs to be sealed in pvc.

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Pierre_Henri

The 20c of 1970 had 14 050 coins struck in non-proof condition and the 1973 20c had exactly 20 000 struck as non-proofs.

According to Van Rensburg's last SA Coin Catalogue (2002-2003), every year, from from 1970 to 1980, exactly 20 000 mint-pack sets were issued.

That makes perfectly sense for the 1973 20c of which 20 000 were struck, but how can that be true regarding the 1970 20c of which only 14 050 non-proofs were struck

The numbers does not add up?

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jwither
On ‎8‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 5:00 PM, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

These mint packs mean nothing to people these days. It's as if the third decimal series has brought a total disregard for collecting second decimal coinage. You can see this in the lack of graded nickel business strikes. I was once told by a gold dealer that he removes the silver rands from mint packs for melting and discards the rest. I was stunned on every level. All everybody wants to hear, do you have 1965 50cent and 1 cent? Even bullion dealers know these are the key dates. Nevermind the set looks somewhat dull with only two coins in it.

Well, I can see that in South Africa the lack of graded coins is the determining factor, if the sentiments expressed on this forum are representative of collecting in your country.  There is no reason to grade any of these RSA coins from an economic standpoint as the coins graded are overwhelmingly worth less than the grading fee.  This is expected.

Same thing from the standpoint of collecting since TPG grading disproportionately has absolutely nothing to do with collecting, at all.  There isn't any question of these coins being genuine, as no one will bother to counterfeit it due to the low value.  The actual quality difference between even multiple MS grades is numismatically irrelevant.  People who prefer TPG just pretend otherwise due to financial reasons, to inflate the price level and to exaggerate the merits of what they like and collect.  

I'd hardly call any of these coins "key" dates either.  It depends upon definition but none of these coins are remotely hard to buy.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
20 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

The 20c of 1970 had 14 050 coins struck in non-proof condition and the 1973 20c had exactly 20 000 struck as non-proofs.

According to Van Rensburg's last SA Coin Catalogue (2002-2003), every year, from from 1970 to 1980, exactly 20 000 mint-pack sets were issued.

That makes perfectly sense for the 1973 20c of which 20 000 were struck, but how can that be true regarding the 1970 20c of which only 14 050 non-proofs were struck

The numbers does not add up?

Correct. The question then is, has enough 1970 20cents been melted or discarded to have an impact on that mintage of 14 000. But seeing that there doesn't seem to be much of an interest in collecting second series due to its base metal content, I don't see that it will make a difference.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
14 hours ago, jwither said:

There isn't any question of these coins being genuine, as no one will bother to counterfeit it due to the low value.  The actual quality difference between even multiple MS grades is numismatically irrelevant. 

The light has just gone on! This is something I failed to see in all my questions I've asked regarding grading second series decimals. A key factor for grading, would be assurance of authenticity. Especially from an investor standpoint. 

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Pierre_Henri
2 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

The light has just gone on! This is something I failed to see in all my questions I've asked regarding grading second series decimals. A key factor for grading, would be assurance of authenticity. Especially from an investor standpoint. 

True from an investor standpoint , but untrue regarding collectors in general 

Many, many collectors collect "the best" in certain categories - of late especially the SA R1 series  

They obviously know that the coins don't need any TPG to guarantee authenticity - they also know that the coins are not scarce per se - they know all of these things.

Their passion is collecting the highest grade possible regarding the series they are interested in.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

If I should start collecting R1 coins and want the highest NGC grades possible for each year - THAT IS WHAT I COLLECT and THAT IS WHAT I AM WILLING TO PAY FOR ...  

It is as if we always come back to the same point on this forum - - if you collect coins to be rich one day don't do it - don't collect coins, stamps, medals etc.

if you collect these items because of the enjoyment then welcome to the club.

Why must it always be about how much you will make one day on this or that "investment" in coins?

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GROOVIE MOVIES
2 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

True from an investor standpoint , but untrue regarding collectors in general 

Many, many collectors collect "the best" in certain categories - of late especially the SA R1 series  

They obviously know that the coins don't need any TPG to guarantee authenticity - they also know that the coins are not scarce per se - they know all of these things.

Their passion is collecting the highest grade possible regarding the series they are interested in.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

If I should start collecting R1 coins and want the highest NGC grades possible for each year - THAT IS WHAT I COLLECT and THAT IS WHAT I AM WILLING TO PAY FOR ...  

It is as if we always come back to the same point on this forum - - if you collect coins to be rich one day don't do it - don't collect coins, stamps, medals etc.

if you collect these items because of the enjoyment then welcome to the club.

Why must it always be about how much you will make one day on this or that "investment" in coins?

It's all good and well for a collector to want the very best coin available but it looks to me that collectors have totally overlooked the second decimal series (excluding the rands) especially the nickel coins. If this was not the case, then we would see more graded business strike coins but alas the few slabs out there are only proofs. I understand that the minimum grading service which is SANGS would cost R85, much more than what a nickel coin is worth today (save for scarces 1965 50cent etc). However if collectors really cared for the second series, the price of grading wouldn't be a deterrent. The whole grading aspect of coin collecting is inherently intertwined with investment as this is a major tool used in the price determining factor. It is a fact that investors play a part in the pricing of coins, if not we would all be able to collect 5 shillings for much less that its silver melt value and 1965 english rands would be better priced as well. Personally I don't mind a EF of AU coin above MS as I like to think the coin changed hands many years ago instead of never circulating. With regards to it always about investments with coins, I just accept the roll it plays on the hobby and try to understand it.

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jwither
6 minutes ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

It's all good and well for a collector to want the very best coin available but it looks to me that collectors have totally overlooked the second decimal series (excluding the rands) especially the nickel coins. If this was not the case, then we would see more graded business strike coins but alas the few slabs out there are only proofs. I understand that the minimum grading service which is SANGS would cost R85, much more than what a nickel coin is worth today (save for scarces 1965 50cent etc). However if collectors really cared for the second series, the price of grading wouldn't be a deterrent. The whole grading aspect of coin collecting is inherently intertwined with investment as this is a major tool used in the price determining factor. It is a fact that investors play a part in the pricing of coins, if not we would all be able to collect 5 shillings for much less that its silver melt value and 1965 english rands would be better priced as well. Personally I don't mind a EF of AU coin above MS as I like to think the coin changed hands many years ago instead of never circulating. With regards to it always about investments with coins, I just accept the roll it plays on the hobby and try to understand it.

There is no reason to believe that financial buying (aka, "investment") is or ever will be a factor with the second decimal or any other RSA series, except as it exists with US collecting today.  By this I refer to "grade rarities", strike collecting (such as Full Steps Jefferson 5C), errors and die varieties and toned coins.  However, this specialized collecting is disproportionately financially irrelevant outside the United States, exactly as common sense indicates it should be

RSA is not "overlooked", as this implies some of these coins should be worth a lot more than currently.  Outside of contrived and artificial "rarity", the coins are practically as common as dirt.  The "made rare" RSA coinage such as patterns and with the alternate legends, these coins are remotely overlooked either.  It is overpriced for its relative merits as a collectible.

There is no reason to grade any of the RSA circulating coinage.  It's a total waste of money economically.  For what exactly?  Why should any of this coinage be worth noticeably more than now, when much scarcer but still high quality Union coinage sells for relatively nominal prices?

There is absolutely zero reason to believe that as long as the supply of this coinage remotely resembles current levels, that any of these coins should be worth more or much more than the NGC or PCGS grading fees.  Why would anyone pay much of a premium for such common coins?

Outside of pure speculation as with the Mandela coins, there is no prospect that the collector base will ever reach the critical mass to make it happen where the preference for this coinage will be much higher versus today or since the coins were issued.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
10 hours ago, jwither said:

RSA is not "overlooked", as this implies some of these coins should be worth a lot more than currently.  Outside of contrived and artificial "rarity", the coins are practically as common as dirt.  The "made rare" RSA coinage such as patterns and with the alternate legends, these coins are remotely overlooked either.  It is overpriced for its relative merits as a collectible.

There is no reason to grade any of the RSA circulating coinage.  It's a total waste of money economically.  For what exactly?  Why should any of this coinage be worth noticeably more than now, when much scarcer but still high quality Union coinage sells for relatively nominal prices?

There is absolutely zero reason to believe that as long as the supply of this coinage remotely resembles current levels, that any of these coins should be worth more or much more than the NGC or PCGS grading fees.  Why would anyone pay much of a premium for such common coins?

Outside of pure speculation as with the Mandela coins, there is no prospect that the collector base will ever reach the critical mass to make it happen where the preference for this coinage will be much higher versus today or since the coins were issued.

All this is true from a investor standpoint. Investors would not bother to invest in anything that is not considered worth the investment. The fact that the coins are common and base metal has made sure of this. However from a collector stand point, rarity isn't the only reason for collecting coins, there is beauty as well. It seems to me the fate of the second decimal series (excluding rands) has already been decided by investors as worthless and numismatists have accepted this without any challenge. If this was not the case we would see much more interest by collectors for this series. The only other reason I can think of is that collectors must not find these coins aesthetically appealing or find them boring.  From my point of view I find it absurd that there is so little interest in the second series as I consider these coins to be very beautiful. These same designs were given a fresh look and carried over onto our third series 5, 10, 20 and 50 cents as well as R5.

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jwither
10 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

All this is true from a investor standpoint. Investors would not bother to invest in anything that is not considered worth the investment. The fact that the coins are common and base metal has made sure of this. However from a collector stand point, rarity isn't the only reason for collecting coins, there is beauty as well. It seems to me the fate of the second decimal series (excluding rands) has already been decided by investors as worthless and numismatists have accepted this without any challenge. If this was not the case we would see much more interest by collectors for this series. The only other reason I can think of is that collectors must not find these coins aesthetically appealing or find them boring.  From my point of view I find it absurd that there is so little interest in the second series as I consider these coins to be very beautiful. These same designs were given a fresh look and carried over onto our third series 5, 10, 20 and 50 cents as well as R5.

I understand your point, but understood your prior comments in the context of grading.  If this is correct, there is no reason to spend the money on grading fees as it makes a lot more sense to spend it on more coins instead.

As for measuring collector interest, what is your criteria?  Is it the number of collectors collecting it?  Or is it the price level?

If the price level, you can refer to my prior comments.

This is how most measure the "health of the hobby".  The financial promotors (mainly dealers in South Africa) and the financial buyer "collectors" use the price level.  The health of the actual hobby is only weakly correlated to it.

If it is the number of collectors as your benchmark, I have no idea how many collect it and don't see how anyone else can know it either.  The TPG populations aren't representative today.  In the past, this type of collecting might have been quantifiable from album/coin folder sales but I don't know if this ever existed for any SA coinage.

There is a contributor on the NGC Message Boards who complains about the lack of interest in base metal US circulating coinage.  His actual complaint is on the price level.  He claims collectors "hate" these coins even though hundreds of thousands to millions collect it, depending upon definition of "collector".  There is a difference between "popular" measured by the number of collectors who buy a coin or series (such as 2nd decimals) and preferred.  Most collectors either don't make this distinction or aren't aware of it.

What you are describing is the low preference for the 2nd decimal series which is most visibly evident in the price level.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
12 hours ago, jwither said:

I understand your point, but understood your prior comments in the context of grading.  If this is correct, there is no reason to spend the money on grading fees as it makes a lot more sense to spend it on more coins instead.

As for measuring collector interest, what is your criteria?  Is it the number of collectors collecting it?  Or is it the price level?

If the price level, you can refer to my prior comments.

This is how most measure the "health of the hobby".  The financial promotors (mainly dealers in South Africa) and the financial buyer "collectors" use the price level.  The health of the actual hobby is only weakly correlated to it.

If it is the number of collectors as your benchmark, I have no idea how many collect it and don't see how anyone else can know it either.  The TPG populations aren't representative today.  In the past, this type of collecting might have been quantifiable from album/coin folder sales but I don't know if this ever existed for any SA coinage.

There is a contributor on the NGC Message Boards who complains about the lack of interest in base metal US circulating coinage.  His actual complaint is on the price level.  He claims collectors "hate" these coins even though hundreds of thousands to millions collect it, depending upon definition of "collector".  There is a difference between "popular" measured by the number of collectors who buy a coin or series (such as 2nd decimals) and preferred.  Most collectors either don't make this distinction or aren't aware of it.

What you are describing is the low preference for the 2nd decimal series which is most visibly evident in the price level.

Yes, though the price is a strong indicator for desirability it is often influenced by investors and speculators.

From my point of view, and I could be wrong, it appears that more people collecting coins in South Africa are doing so from an investor standpoint in some form of another. When I say investor, I don't necessarily refer to the speculator or the big time investor collecting the most expensive coins. I put people that use coins as a hedge against inflation or store of wealth, in the same bracket as investors.

It has become a sin these days to mention investor in the same sentence as coin collector, but coins fill the gap in the bullion market in South Africa. Even though SA was first to refresh and invigorate the bullion market 50 years ago with the krugerrand, is lagging 30years behind international silver bullion markets. 

How I would define the collector is somebody who collects coins for the hobby of it, whether reasoning behind it is the beauty, history, or even jars in draws. I'm know somebody who collects circulated R5 in tubes just for the fun of it. I found myself with jars in my draws at work, coins in the car, at home, all before I started actively collecting again. It must have been the inner collector in me trying to break out all these years.

One of the ways I measure the collector market (and this specifically applies to second series as I don't believe any investors are to be found here, save 1965 scarcities and silver rands) is the activity that I see on bidorbuy in terms of items being sold, and how long listing takes to be sold. Mint packs that contain silver rands rarely sell for more than the melt price of a silver rand, meaning people are only buying mint packs for the silver rand (i.e. investor). Raw second series coins are widely listed as Buy now, but rarely get sold and even auctions gather little excitement. By contrast there is much more activity of items being listed, sold and hot auctions for bronze Union coins, even the badly worn down ones. 

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jwither
5 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

From my point of view, and I could be wrong, it appears that more people collecting coins in South Africa are doing so from an investor standpoint in some form of another. When I say investor, I don't necessarily refer to the speculator or the big time investor collecting the most expensive coins. I put people that use coins as a hedge against inflation or store of wealth, in the same bracket as investors.

How I would define the collector is somebody who collects coins for the hobby of it, whether reasoning behind it is the beauty, history, or even jars in draws. I'm know somebody who collects circulated R5 in tubes just for the fun of it. I found myself with jars in my draws at work, coins in the car, at home, all before I started actively collecting again. It must have been the inner collector in me trying to break out all these years.

One of the ways I measure the collector market (and this specifically applies to second series as I don't believe any investors are to be found here, save 1965 scarcities and silver rands) is the activity that I see on bidorbuy in terms of items being sold, and how long listing takes to be sold. Mint packs that contain silver rands rarely sell for more than the melt price of a silver rand, meaning people are only buying mint packs for the silver rand (i.e. investor). Raw second series coins are widely listed as Buy now, but rarely get sold and even auctions gather little excitement. By contrast there is much more activity of items being listed, sold and hot auctions for bronze Union coins, even the badly worn down ones. 

Makes sense.  I agree with your description.

Aside from limited interest in actual collecting by existing collectors, it's my opinion that there aren't enough of them to absorb the supply.  My estimate for the number of hobbyist collectors is around 10,000 which based upon the mintages for these mint packs even with likely attrition, means that the majority of the collector base would have to be collecting it.  South Africa has a much lower variety of coinage than the United States but I don't believe expecting this outcome is realistic.

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