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SCoin Shops - Complete Rip Off on ZAR Coins

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EWAAN Galleries

Hi All

 

I was taking a walk and went into the Scoin Shop - they seemed very quiet and had a Paul Kruger section with 3 ZAR Coins..

1900 NGC Kaalpond With Rim and Without Rim  - They offering the pair of 2 coins for R160 000-00 (My Estimate Value - R30k to R50k for the pair)

1898 NGC Pond MS61 - R50 000-00 (My Estimate Value: R6k to R10k)

The salesman kept on saying these are historical and part of the Kruger Millions - He knew absolutely nothing more...

Where do they get these prices from? 

 

 

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GROOVIE MOVIES

I've also found their sales people to be uninformed about the line of work they are in. I once walked into their store in Somerset and asked if they had any union coins on offer as I remember the store once used union coins as a window dressing. They sales lady had no idea what union coins were to my astonishment. How do you employ people with no knowledge in the line of work they are in? All this was before the release of the silver krugerrand. I left my details with her to be contacted when they received their first shipment and my phone has yet to ring. Perhaps this book cover was written off as too shabby or small change to warrant any return call. 

 

regards Robert

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Coin Database
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, EWAAN Galleries said:

Hi All

 

I was taking a walk and went into the Scoin Shop - they seemed very quiet and had a Paul Kruger section with 3 ZAR Coins..

1900 NGC Kaalpond With Rim and Without Rim  - They offering the pair of 2 coins for R160 000-00 (My Estimate Value - R30k to R50k for the pair)

1898 NGC Pond MS61 - R50 000-00 (My Estimate Value: R6k to R10k)

The salesman kept on saying these are historical and part of the Kruger Millions - He knew absolutely nothing more...

Where do they get these prices from? 

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

I've also found their sales people to be uninformed about the line of work they are in. I once walked into their store in Somerset and asked if they had any union coins on offer as I remember the store once used union coins as a window dressing. They sales lady had no idea what union coins were to my astonishment. How do you employ people with no knowledge in the line of work they are in? All this was before the release of the silver krugerrand. I left my details with her to be contacted when they received their first shipment and my phone has yet to ring. Perhaps this book cover was written off as too shabby or small change to warrant any return call. 

 

regards Robert

Scoin shop staff are not educated on numismatics or coins. But, the three terms they know are 'Historical Importance', 'Rare and scarce' and 'Great investment' - using these terms and some funny made up charts and stats showing some or the other growth rate in the value of coins, they sell them off to unsuspecting victims. The owner was on Carte Blanche and a number of radio shows late last year. He made it well clear that they are in the business of making money and do ask a lot of money for their coins. He did also mention that it remains the responsibility of the consumer to conduct their own research before buying into their coins.

Edited by Coin Database

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GROOVIE MOVIES
26 minutes ago, Coin Database said:

 

Scoin shop staff are not educated on numismatics or coins. But, the three terms they know are 'Historical Importance', 'Rare and scarce' and 'Great investment' - using these terms and some funny made up charts and stats showing some or the other growth rate in the value of coins, they sell them off to unsuspecting victims. The owner was on Carte Blanche and a number of radio shows late last year. He made it well clear that they are in the business of making money and do ask a lot of money for their coins. He did also mention that it remains the responsibility of the consumer to conduct their own research before buying into their coins.

Openly admitting to this style of business shows the lack of integrity to blatantly do people in knowing full well what the market value of coins are.

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Coin Database
1 hour ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

Openly admitting to this style of business shows the lack of integrity to blatantly do people in knowing full well what the market value of coins are.

Yes, look, Scoinshop was not afraid to sell a PF69UC 2008 Mandela coin at R75k to a number of people. They literally done in thousands, if not tens of thousands of people with coins. We are beginning to see the effects of this on a large number of Facebook groups. I know of 475 complaints between January and now. People are now looking to sell their Mandela coins which they paid R35k, R60k and some more than R80k for. They are horrified to learn that these coins are worth no more than R3k. Scoinshop has been very laid back about this, feeling they did nothing wrong. They are simply urging people to hold on to their coins for many years and they will grow in value. One thing I am pretty sure of is that the coin industry in South Africa will never be the same again. For the biggest part of people I come across, they are no longer interested in coins or dealing with it. I suspect the coin industry will stay a small close group for some time and will eventually die off locally. It is things like these that shows the public the only reason why they should not get involved in this industry,

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Pierre_Henri
2 hours ago, Coin Database said:

For the biggest part of people I come across, they are no longer interested in coins or dealing with it. I suspect the coin industry will stay a small close group for some time and will eventually die off locally. It is things like these that shows the public the only reason why they should not get involved in this industry,

I totally disagree with you. 

Those people that have paid R50 000 or whatever for a Mandela R5 coin did so because they were gullible and greedy. 

They never had any interest in numismatics to start with – they were never coin collectors. 

If they have walked into a stamp shop on that specific day and the owner showed them a Mandela stamp that “will” be worth a gazillion Rands in a few years’ time, they would probably have bought the stamp – or painting – or medallion – or Elvis’s shoes. 

The coin industry will never die – Spink & Son in London have been in the numismatic business since 1666 and they are still going strong 350 years later. Many a US coin dealer survived the American depression in the early 1930s because their core clients were core numismatic collectors. 

The only numismatic business that will NOT survive is the one that caters for the gullible and greedy.

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jwither

Pierre,

A disproportionate percentage of collectors - apparently even actual ones - seem to care a lot more about the value of their collections than the collection itself.  This is obviously evident on this forum where you and I are the only two who are around since I joined in 2009 and from the activity on this forum which is now about as active as a morgue.  This forum was relatively active until at least 2013 but has declined consistently with the price level.

It's the same story for the most part in the USA, even as the level of interest in real collecting is much greater than my personal observations in your country.  The NGC Message Boards are also practically a morgue, though I have heard complaints about the new software they installed within the last two years.  I don't comment on PCGS but though it is still active, the level of activity seems to have also declined noticeably.

I read both regularly and a disproportionate number and percentage of the topics are about numismatic trivia such as the TPG grade, "+" grades, the CAC and other numismatic minutia which has little if anything to do with collecting, exactly as occurred here when this forum was a lot more active.  They don't discuss the financial aspects and what coins are worth as much as this forum did, but none of this is significant to actual collecting either.

Why is this the case even with "real " collectors?

Well, my answer is a combination of the following:

One: The prices are (completely) disproportionate to the numismatic merits of what they collect.  This is definitely true for the trivial differences in quality represented by proximate TPG grades which are an obsession among many "collectors" in your country and the USA both. 

Two: The collector has a (very) weak affinity for what they collect.  This can apply to both expensive and cheaper coins, especially if the coins are common.  There is no reason to believe that, regardless of how "popular" a coin or series supposedly is, that collectors will be indifferent to losing money on coins which are easy to buy or can essentially be bought on demand.  I stated this opinion in the link below as I consider it obvious and consider it a negative for future US collecting generally.

If anyone here wants to read posts on a coin forum where the contributors are primarily actually interested in collecting and numismatics, go read Coin Talk.  But then, these contributors disproportionately don't discuss the more expensive coins or what a great "investment" the coins they collect represents, exactly as I told one contributor here who previously made the unsubstantiated claim that collectors supposedly have the most interest in the most expensive coins they obviously cannot afford.

Below is a link to a recent topic on the NGC Message Boards where I (once again) was the primary contributor discussing the future prospects for the "hobby" in the USA.  As usual just as here in the past, undoubtedly my opinions were contrary to what most (If not all) wanted to hear.

The better part is in the earlier posts as later in this topic, I was contradicting the unsubstantiated claims from another contributor with whom I have had several debates on the coins they prefer.

https://www.ngccoin.com/boards/topic/411905-two-interesting-perspectives-on-the-challenges-facing-the-hobby/

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14 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

I totally disagree with you. 

Those people that have paid R50 000 or whatever for a Mandela R5 coin did so because they were gullible and greedy. 

They never had any interest in numismatics to start with – they were never coin collectors. 

If they have walked into a stamp shop on that specific day and the owner showed them a Mandela stamp that “will” be worth a gazillion Rands in a few years’ time, they would probably have bought the stamp – or painting – or medallion – or Elvis’s shoes. 

The coin industry will never die – Spink & Son in London have been in the numismatic business since 1666 and they are still going strong 350 years later. Many a US coin dealer survived the American depression in the early 1930s because their core clients were core numismatic collectors. 

The only numismatic business that will NOT survive is the one that caters for the gullible and greedy.

The only thing I am saying, the people we need to grow the hobby, become involve and invest in it, are being scammed and they are warning any and all prospective newcomers to the industry. Many are listening and stay clear from dealing in coins.

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EWAAN Galleries
14 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

I totally disagree with you. 

Those people that have paid R50 000 or whatever for a Mandela R5 coin did so because they were gullible and greedy. 

They never had any interest in numismatics to start with – they were never coin collectors. 

If they have walked into a stamp shop on that specific day and the owner showed them a Mandela stamp that “will” be worth a gazillion Rands in a few years’ time, they would probably have bought the stamp – or painting – or medallion – or Elvis’s shoes. 

The coin industry will never die – Spink & Son in London have been in the numismatic business since 1666 and they are still going strong 350 years later. Many a US coin dealer survived the American depression in the early 1930s because their core clients were core numismatic collectors. 

The only numismatic business that will NOT survive is the one that caters for the gullible and greedy.

Those who paid R120k for 1892 Ponde In MS63 were also gullible and greedy then?

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Manfred1

My opinion for what it's worth ... I agree with Pierre_Henri

Dealers mentioned in previous replies caused the serious interested coin collectors to back off from various coins.

As we all know that coin collecting is not an investment. That said, some coins may be an investment but not in general.

I'm interested in collecting and also have a sort of "coin" investment on the side. With that i mean i'm buying any gold coins at the right price. I bought my very first Kruger for R250

On the other hand, as example look at some dealers on BoB ... advertisements of the new Tambo 5 rand for R100? I have a few coin collecting friends all over Europe.

Since i'm not from South Africa, and with no family in SA, it is sometimes difficult to obtain coins. These sellers simple walk into the bank, buy the coins and then expect me to pay R100 for a normal R5. My answer to my European friends is only ... be patient, eventually i will get you the coin at face value.

In short, many people thought and still think they can become wealthy overnight. With the current inflated prices i'm simply withdrawing from the collecting side.

 

 

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Manfred1

@jwither

With all respect and without offense ... i have read your posts regarding various issues. I have noticed that you are not very active on BoB for quite some time.

Some time ago i came to the conclusion that the lastest trend on BoB is for "Dealers" to buy coins from other "Dealers" Obviously the new owner adds his/her mark-up and hope to sell the item. Then the cycle repeats itself ...

My opinion is that almost all the coins on BoB are for sale at over inflated prices.

 

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GROOVIE MOVIES
4 hours ago, Manfred1 said:

These sellers simple walk into the bank, buy the coins and then expect me to pay R100 for a normal R5. My answer to my European friends is only ... be patient, eventually i will get you the coin at face value.

In short, many people thought and still think they can become wealthy overnight. With the current inflated prices i'm simply withdrawing from the collecting side.

 

 

I check my change every day and have yet to get even a Griqua in circulation that was released 3 years ago. To date I think I have collected two Madiba coins from circulation and two 1994 Inauguration R5 coins.

Once a colleague got a Griqua R5 in her change and I bought it from her for R10. 

On the other hand commemorative R2 such as the 10 years of democracy and 100year anniversary of the Union buildings are so common place, you bound to get at least one coin in circulation every week.

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jwither
5 hours ago, Manfred1 said:

@jwither

With all respect and without offense ... i have read your posts regarding various issues. I have noticed that you are not very active on BoB for quite some time.

Some time ago i came to the conclusion that the lastest trend on BoB is for "Dealers" to buy coins from other "Dealers" Obviously the new owner adds his/her mark-up and hope to sell the item. Then the cycle repeats itself ...

My opinion is that almost all the coins on BoB are for sale at over inflated prices.

 

No, I have not been very active recently because there is no activity here.  In the past, I have attempted to start conversations focusing on how collectors approach collecting but there was limited interest.  Some of it probably was and is due to my writing style (which can sound harsh) but mostly I presume its because most who posted here weren't really interested.

On the topics discussing the financial aspects which has been the majority of the commentary since I joined in 2009, I mostly wrote opposing opinions contradicting the financial promotion which was endemic here.  In my opinion, it was primarily an attempt to convince others of the merits of SA coins as "investments" and to inflate the price level.  None of this has anything to do with collecting whatsoever.

I also haven't commented in some of the topics in areas with which I have limited familiarity, an example being the S&Co tokens.  I know the series I collect well and have a broad but limited knowledge on many coins, but not in depth on many.

As for your comments on the inflated prices on BoB, this has been true since I can remember, back to 2009 when I joined this forum.  I'd attribute it to a combination of the following:

One: Some sellers (primarily dealers) attempt to obtain the Hern list price when it is obvious these numbers don't reflect reality and are just made up.  In the editions I own, the prices have mostly been hugely inflated (even at the time) though occasionally understated.

Two:  Many sellers appear to attempt to rip off buyers.  I don't know this as "fact" but don't see any other explanation for it.

Three: In some instances, the sellers possibly just don't want to sell it at a price they consider "too low".  This shouldn't be surprising.  If you own a coin which is hard to find, there is little point in selling it for a "low" price.  Many would rather just hold on to it.

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jwither
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Manfred1 said:

My opinion for what it's worth ... I agree with Pierre_Henri

Dealers mentioned in previous replies caused the serious interested coin collectors to back off from various coins.

As we all know that coin collecting is not an investment. That said, some coins may be an investment but not in general.

I'm interested in collecting and also have a sort of "coin" investment on the side. With that i mean i'm buying any gold coins at the right price. I bought my very first Kruger for R250

On the other hand, as example look at some dealers on BoB ... advertisements of the new Tambo 5 rand for R100? I have a few coin collecting friends all over Europe.

Since i'm not from South Africa, and with no family in SA, it is sometimes difficult to obtain coins. These sellers simple walk into the bank, buy the coins and then expect me to pay R100 for a normal R5. My answer to my European friends is only ... be patient, eventually i will get you the coin at face value.

In short, many people thought and still think they can become wealthy overnight. With the current inflated prices i'm simply withdrawing from the collecting side.

 

 

Not sure where you live but there are plenty of other coins to collect.  I happen to live in the United States which probably provides more access versus anywhere else, but if I didn't have access to the coins I prefer now, I'd find something else to buy.

Initially when I returned to collecting in 1998, South Africa Union was my primary series and  this lasted until about 2008.  However, in direct contradiction to the opinions overwhelmingly expressed here, the huge run up in the price level for the better coins was a big turn off for me.  I found out what I didn't know before, that I didn't actually like Union best and wasn't about to pay the open market prices even after the substantial decline from the 2011 peak.  I bought practically all of my Union coins from US or UK sources at a fraction of the market price in South Africa but the supply has dried up with the lower price level. 

Even at the much lower price level, I can still buy my actually preferred series (Spanish colonial pillar minors from Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru) at much more competitive prices than Union.  Sometimes the prices are higher either for the grade or even absolutely but I prefer them anyway.  Also, the only market for Union coinage outside of South Africa is at lower or much lower prices versus South Africa even at the current "low" level.  If I had to do it over again, I would have dumped practically all of the SA coins I own now instead of just most of the best ones which I sold through 2010.  Initially, I intended to buy them back later at lower prices but "lower" would still be much higher than the amount I initially paid.  Instead, I ended selling a large number late in 2016 for a fraction of what they were previously worth and in some instances of what I paid.  The amount of the total loss wasn't material but I'm not about to collect this series at any noticeable financial level and lose money on it when I can buy coins I like more which probably have better prospects and are definitely easier to sell.

Edited by jwither

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jwither
8 hours ago, EWAAN Galleries said:

Those who paid R120k for 1892 Ponde In MS63 were also gullible and greedy then?

Greedy, maybe or may not.  Gullible, almost certainly.  The coin isn't remotely scarce and at R120K (regardless of the exchange rate versus other currencies) is grossly overpriced for its relative merits.  The only explanation for this inflated price is financial buying by uninformed buyers.

Whatever the reason, it is entirely reasonable to presume that the buyer of this coin at this price had an inflated opinion of its merits and financial prospects and certainly believed they could get all or more of their money back.

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Pierre_Henri

Maybe we must ask Johan or Andries to open a second Numismatic category

The first one  (Coins et al for Numismatists & Collectors) is for collectors who are interested in coins, notes & medallions

The second one (Show me the Money) is for those who who are primarily interested in prices and what this or that coin sold for and how bad this or that coin investment was.

The second category is killing this forum 

Pierre

  • Thanks 1

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Manfred1
15 hours ago, jwither said:

Not sure where you live but there are plenty of other coins to collect.  I happen to live in the United States which probably provides more access versus anywhere else, but if I didn't have access to the coins I prefer now, I'd find something else to buy.

Very much true, but residing in Africa it is almost like a living hell to collect "other" coins. Quality foreign coins occasionally show up on BoB

If put up for auction one can find a decent coin. If advertised to buy ... forget that notion

Quick example : 2018 St Helena E.I.C.Trade dollar

Normally i try to obtain African coins from the National Banks of the respective Country. St Helena referred me to E.I.C

Conclusion: Two retailers (APMEX and Hong Kong)

Apmex dont ship to my country, Hong Kong shipping fee HKD $673.00 for a HKD $200 coin. I always try to buy a few different coins to make shipping fees more  sensible.

I have bags full of African coins. Whenever i get into contact with a person from another African Country i give him/her USD50 - 100 with the request for uncirculated coins from his Country. Normally they pitch up with coins worth half (face value) and all circulated. Circulated almost to the extend of fine to poor.  

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EWAAN Galleries
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Maybe we must ask Johan or Andries to open a second Numismatic category

The first one  (Coins et al for Numismatists & Collectors) is for collectors who are interested in coins, notes & medallions

The second one (Show me the Money) is for those who who are primarily interested in prices and what this or that coin sold for and how bad this or that coin investment was.

The second category is killing this forum 

Pierre

Why would you not want to warn new collectors and save them from being ripped off? That’s just selfish....

Im sure Bid or Buy will move topics for you as done before.....

Edited by EWAAN Galleries

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EWAAN Galleries

Amazing how if it was a Mandela coin in the topic all would agree. Now because its a Zar coin it seems to be hurting some pockets.....

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GROOVIE MOVIES
16 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Maybe we must ask Johan or Andries to open a second Numismatic category

The first one  (Coins et al for Numismatists & Collectors) is for collectors who are interested in coins, notes & medallions

The second one (Show me the Money) is for those who who are primarily interested in prices and what this or that coin sold for and how bad this or that coin investment was.

The second category is killing this forum 

Pierre

Hi Pierre

 

I don't think it is as easy to separate numismatics from financial investment in SA as the two are linked together by the hip. What is there to collect that is not worth more than face value? Even the Madiba R5 coins are near impossible to get through normal circulation. As soon as somebody got a Madiba R5 in their change, they immediately removed it. This created a false sense of scarcity as these coins were re-minted a second time around to keep up with demand but today none are in circulation.

Numismatic or commemorative coins are only available to collectors at a certain price (they can hardly be found through circulation, as is so common in the US, with people hunting through coin rolls etc.), and almost never at face value or spot price. So it is only reasonable for a collector to want his or her collection to be worth something, or to know that the hobby they have been indulging in has value in it. Many a times it is the prospects of coins as an alternative investment, that spurs on a new interest in numismatics, as is how I personally got into collecting. The videos you watch on social forums would certainly have you believe the world as you know it is ending tomorrow and you need gold and silver today. However after all the hype of precious metals investments settles, I found myself being drawn to the history and story behind coins. Soon I found myself collecting coppers! Another telephone call to a seller had me asking to make sure she including that specific penny in the photo with the finger print as it presented a beautiful pattern on the coin...

That being said, I do agree that there are those who abuse the hobby for personal gain as is the case with these R5 that are not scarce nor do they have a story to tell that are passed off as investments. Or the high price on these ZAR ponde... To me the Van Niekerk forgery, being sold for R5000 certainly has a better story to tell than the MS63 selling for R60 000. 

 

regards Robert

 

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GROOVIE MOVIES

When I say better story, I mean interesting story and do not take away any significance from the history of the ZAR pond, or role it played during the war.

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jwither
7 hours ago, Manfred1 said:

Very much true, but residing in Africa it is almost like a living hell to collect "other" coins. Quality foreign coins occasionally show up on BoB

If put up for auction one can find a decent coin. If advertised to buy ... forget that notion

Quick example : 2018 St Helena E.I.C.Trade dollar

Normally i try to obtain African coins from the National Banks of the respective Country. St Helena referred me to E.I.C

Conclusion: Two retailers (APMEX and Hong Kong)

Apmex dont ship to my country, Hong Kong shipping fee HKD $673.00 for a HKD $200 coin. I always try to buy a few different coins to make shipping fees more  sensible.

I have bags full of African coins. Whenever i get into contact with a person from another African Country i give him/her USD50 - 100 with the request for uncirculated coins from his Country. Normally they pitch up with coins worth half (face value) and all circulated. Circulated almost to the extend of fine to poor.  

Totally understand.  I didn't know you lived in another African country outside of South Africa.

On the NGC Message boards, I have attempted to explain your predicament to one other contributor with whom I have had many debates.  He doesn't remotely understand the limitations (potential) collectors such as you face in either buying or selling coins.

I have dual citizenship in Bolivia and visit twice a year.  Probably somewhat better there than most of Africa  but the prospective collector there has little to buy and no market to sell into.  Back in 1975 as a child, I visited a plateria (silver shop) where the proprietor had a nice inventory as a sideline business.  Also in the markets, shopkeepers had produce scales (the ones used to weigh fruits and vegetables) full of Bolivianos, the crown sized silver coin struck from 1864-1875.  Easily thousands of these coins though don't remember the dates and grades.  Also visited a trade fair where there was a very nice exhibit of what presumably must have been quite scarce local coins in what I recall as high quality.

Since I returned to visit in 1997, local shopkeepers stock junk coins for tourists but nothing a "serious" collector will want.  No dealers, no coin clubs, no coin publications...nothing.

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jwither
4 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

I don't think it is as easy to separate numismatics from financial investment in SA as the two are linked together by the hip. What is there to collect that is not worth more than face value? Even the Madiba R5 coins are near impossible to get through normal circulation. As soon as somebody got a Madiba R5 in their change, they immediately removed it. This created a false sense of scarcity as these coins were re-minted a second time around to keep up with demand but today none are in circulation.

Numismatic or commemorative coins are only available to collectors at a certain price (they can hardly be found through circulation, as is so common in the US, with people hunting through coin rolls etc.), and almost never at face value or spot price. So it is only reasonable for a collector to want his or her collection to be worth something, or to know that the hobby they have been indulging in has value in it. Many a times it is the prospects of coins as an alternative investment, that spurs on a new interest in numismatics, as is how I personally got into collecting. The videos you watch on social forums would certainly have you believe the world as you know it is ending tomorrow and you need gold and silver today. However after all the hype of precious metals investments settles, I found myself being drawn to the history and story behind coins. Soon I found myself collecting coppers! Another telephone call to a seller had me asking to make sure she including that specific penny in the photo with the finger print as it presented a beautiful pattern on the coin..

From my observations, the idea that collecting has an "investment" component isn't viewed by most collectors elsewhere as it is in South Africa.  To my knowledge, it was prevalent first in the United States and also now in China, Australia, somewhat in the UK and maybe Canada. 

Whether in these countries or elsewhere, I am not saying that buyers don't want to get their money back at resale or wouldn't like to get more.  However, if this forum is representative of the mentality in South Africa which to a large extent I believe it is, it is the prioritization of the financial aspects over actual collecting which largely explains the bubble leading up to the 2011 price peak and the subsequent price crash.

This is why the collecting culture is weaker in your country than in those with more widespread and established traditions and one of the reasons why I see no reason to believe the price level will ever be what the consensus expected up to 2011 or the collector base will expand significantly.  (The second primary reason being the limited supply of the better ZAR and Union coins which are those most collectors actually want to buy.)

You are correct that in recent times (post mid-1970's in the USA and maybe post 2002 in South Africa), many collectors got their start with bullion buying and then moved to numismatic coinage.

The point I made in the link I included above (which I suspect either few or none here read) is that it's almost a certainty that these buyers have a much weaker affinity both for collecting and what they buy than those whose primary motivation isn't financial.  This should be self evident due to:

One: Those who buy coins as alternative "investments" will overwhelmingly have shorter holding periods.  They are more likely dump their coins in a market decline and also sell in a rising market to "cash out" or when they have met their (informal) ROI targets.  This will increase the supply and hold back the price level.

Two: In South Africa and the United States, the overwhelming "distinction" in the most expensive coins is based upon the TPG grade.  In both markets, there is no reason to believe that either group of collectors will have a strong affinity when this "distinction" is based upon trivial if not entirely imaginary differences in actual quality.

Three: The prices of the most expensive coins are totally disproportionate to the merits as a collectible.

The point I am making is that this supposed interest by predominant financial buyers will only last as long as prices are rising.  Longer term, it isn't sustainable since as  a function of logic and common sense, it is impossible for the price level to perpetually increase at a rate which exceeds the capacity of the hobbyist collector (as opposed to financial buyer) to pay.  Though the price level isn't fixed, this is a real limitation as ultimately, only hobbyists derive any utility from collecting, not anyone else.  To believe otherwise is to concurrently reduce traditional collecting to "widget" trading.

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GROOVIE MOVIES
2 hours ago, jwither said:

The point I am making is that this supposed interest by predominant financial buyers will only last as long as prices are rising.  Longer term, it isn't sustainable since as  a function of logic and common sense, it is impossible for the price level to perpetually increase at a rate which exceeds the capacity of the hobbyist collector (as opposed to financial buyer) to pay.  Though the price level isn't fixed, this is a real limitation as ultimately, only hobbyists derive any utility from collecting, not anyone else.  To believe otherwise is to concurrently reduce traditional collecting to "widget" trading.

Another thing to remember is for many, coins are the only form of precious metals available as a means of investment or hedge agaist inflation. For one example being you would be hard pressed to readily find bullion silver available at spot price, hence the reason why the numistmatic market is overrun by "investors". Though the 5shillings and silver rands investors I'm referring to are small change compared to the R120k pond investor. 

I would definately say the coin market in SA currently finds itself in a correction as you would find in any other market. This is evident in the overall falling of prices that I always seem to be hearing about. Perhaps this is the result of a wider audience e-commerce sites such as bidorbuy has brought to the trade, as now all sorts of higher grade coins are available on a regular basis and what seemed like a rare piece a few years ago in a coin shop doesn't seem so scarces anymore... 

One thing is certain, many who ploughed great deals of money into inflatedly priced coins will discouraged and may even quite while they ahead, but this also means that much more better quality coins are now available to collectors at much more affordable prices or January prices as I like to call it.

 

regards Robert

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jwither
2 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

Another thing to remember is for many, coins are the only form of precious metals available as a means of investment or hedge agaist inflation. For one example being you would be hard pressed to readily find bullion silver available at spot price, hence the reason why the numistmatic market is overrun by "investors". Though the 5shillings and silver rands investors I'm referring to are small change compared to the R120k pond investor. 

I would definately say the coin market in SA currently finds itself in a correction as you would find in any other market. This is evident in the overall falling of prices that I always seem to be hearing about. Perhaps this is the result of a wider audience e-commerce sites such as bidorbuy has brought to the trade, as now all sorts of higher grade coins are available on a regular basis and what seemed like a rare piece a few years ago in a coin shop doesn't seem so scarces anymore... 

One thing is certain, many who ploughed great deals of money into inflatedly priced coins will discouraged and may even quite while they ahead, but this also means that much more better quality coins are now available to collectors at much more affordable prices or January prices as I like to call it.

 

regards Robert

I particularly agree with the part of your post I have placed in bold.  For the hobbyist (or "real collector"), falling prices are actually better.  However, I don't believe hardly any collectors prefer it so the second best option is a relatively stable price which increases gradually to maintain affordability.

However, my observations from the historical consensus on this forum don't remotely support that this is the likely preference in your country among the buyers of the more expensive coins.  The overwhelming sentiment here is that the majority of bigger budget buyers are more interested in the price level increasing as much as possible, all of the time.  The implied sentiments on this forum can be better described that lower prices of the last 6+ years are an "economic tragedy" and "naysayers" such as myself are "negative" by warning a new group of "investors" (aka, suckers) from being duped into letting current holders bail out of their losses or realize another windfall.

On your first paragraph, I am aware that silver substitutes aren't readily available.  But if "investors" are buying numismatic coins in higher grades instead, I can't think of a worse method to do it.  I'd either buy and store silver elsewhere or forgo it altogether.

On your second paragraph, the SA coin market is not in a correction but an implosion from the bubble which ended approximately at YE 2011.  It's hard to measure exactly how far prices have fallen since unlike the US which uses various PCGS coin indices, there is nothing comparable for South Africa.  It varies by coin but predominantly, I'd say the decline for practically any coin of any meaningful value is at least 50% and on average probably 80% or more.

I don't know what opinions are in SA as to the future price prospects since I don't see any comments anymore, but I have no problem saying that, absent another bubble, the 2011 peak was a "one shot" deal and isn't going to be repeated.  If this seems impossible, consider that when I last commented on this subject here, only one PCGS index was above its 1989 level.  My comments don't preclude individual coins selling for higher prices or appreciating noticeably but there is no reason to believe 2011 and immediately prior represented anything remotely normal.

The higher supply as evidenced by the increases in the TPG population counts are used as a partial (maybe even the primary explanation) for the decline, but mostly, it shouldn't matter IF buyer affinity demonstrated a strong affinity for collecting.  By any standard, the supply of better coinage is a pittance versus the prospective collector base to buy it.  One of my primary points is that this didn't exist and whether it will in the future remains to be determined.

Ultimately though, the growth in your market from a financial standpoint is limited by the very limited supply of better ZAR and Union coins that real collectors actually want to buy.  In a prior post here, I estimated that the "market cap" of "investment eligible" ZAR and Union coins might be in the range of $32MM to $50MM USD at current prices and maybe as much as $200MM at the peak.  This isn't a real financial market, being barely somewhat more than the value of PCGS parent company CLCT.

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