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1893 Half Pound

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jwither
8 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

What is the Hern number /reference of this coin?

Sorry, I do not remember.  I moved about a year ago and most of my belongings are in storage, including my Hern Guide.

The reason I mentioned this coin is because I believe it is of interest to Sovereign collectors, like the collection sold by DNW within the last five years whose name escapes me.  They will still compete for this type of South African coin, even though I don't believe they buy anything else from either Union or ZAR.

This coin is probably worth less now that I believe it to be and definitely far less than the 1928 bronze pattern sold by Heritage for $184,000.  The owner of that coin must be massively "under water" if they still own it, as evidenced by the sale prices of two other patterns in the aforementioned DNW sale.

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culltony
On 2/4/2018 at 7:22 PM, Pierre_Henri said:

When selling very rare and very expensive coins on internet auctions, one must be very aware of many factors … 

Selling (listing) coins on sites like EBay and BidorBuy to get the ultimate exposure and prices, is practically a science. 

1)    The country you are selling the coins in - South African coins will probably do better in SA than in Great Britain – see earlier posts – this was a strong debate earlier on this forum.

2)    The time of the day the auction closes (nobody bid at 3 o clock in the morning or 3 o’ clock in the afternoon, so ending the auction between 7 and 10 during weekdays is probably the best time-slot)

3)    Day of the week (never on a Wednesday – unless it is specifically listed under the Crazy Wednesday auctions regarding BidorBuy) – otherwise it will compete with thousands of other coins. The best days are Thursdays and Sundays -- the worst are Fridays and Saturdays.

4)    Month of the year (the coin in question was listed to close on the 17th of December which is a bad time – many people have already left on holiday)   

5)    Picture and description – when pictures are faint and descriptions are below standard (I am not talking about the coin in question), the results will show it – personally – if I see the following on BidorBuy I cringe, and just do not click on the item – VERY RARE _ VERY RARE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! VERY FEW MINTED !!!!!! etc etc.

6)    The provenance of the item or the sellers’ history – very important – does his or her ratings show the person to be trustworthy delivering the goods?

Like I have mentioned above, selling (listing) coins on sites like EBay and BidorBuy to do well, is practically a science.

So it is very difficult to look at past results to determine the value of a coin in a certain period in time that was sold on an internet auction.

The same coin in the same grade could sell in the same week for a difference of a R100 000 because the person who listed that coin was not aware of the finer e-commerce details of marketing that coin.

It is really a science and all of us learn as we go along!

Pierre

Interesting post, and I refer to item 6, as I was on the receiving end of a BIG price difference for the same item...I was selling a 1959 Short proof set, (about 2 weeks ago) when you listed one at the same time, to end after mine....Your set ended up selling for              R 1000.00 more than mine, which was a bit disheartening from my side at the time, but I think the only reason I can think of for the big price difference, was your item 6 statement....   

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Pierre_Henri
On 3/2/2018 at 9:44 AM, culltony said:

Interesting post, and I refer to item 6, as I was on the receiving end of a BIG price difference for the same item...I was selling a 1959 Short proof set, (about 2 weeks ago) when you listed one at the same time, to end after mine....Your set ended up selling for              R 1000.00 more than mine, which was a bit disheartening from my side at the time, but I think the only reason I can think of for the big price difference, was your item 6 statement....   

Not necessarily

There could be other reasons that I have not even stated ...

I am not sure what you paid for your listing, but I paid the following:- 

R50 for a Home Page Listing PLUS R10 for a Category Page Features listing PLUS R5 for a Priority Listing PLUS R5 for a Highlighted Listing PLUS R5 for a Bold Listing PLUS R5 for an Alternative Category Listing

So I paid R80 for my listing (to get more exposure and eyeballs) and say you paid R15 for yours (I am just guessing what you paid) 

So I actually paid R65 more than you but got R1000 more for my item - my " input cost" was more but my "return" was much more.

One must do you planning and home work before listing on BidorBuy  - that was the whole point of my posting above - I only listed 6 points but there are many many more that one must consider before selling items on BidorBuy. 

KInd regards

Pierre 

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GROOVIE COINS
22 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Not necessarily

There could be other reasons that I have not even stated ...

I am not sure what you paid for your listing, but I paid the following:- 

R50 for a Home Page Listing PLUS R10 for a Category Page Features listing PLUS R5 for a Priority Listing PLUS R5 for a Highlighted Listing PLUS R5 for a Bold Listing PLUS R5 for an Alternative Category Listing

So I paid R80 for my listing (to get more exposure and eyeballs) and say you paid R15 for yours (I am just guessing what you paid) 

So I actually paid R65 more than you but got R1000 more for my item - my " input cost" was more but my "return" was much more.

One must do you planning and home work before listing on BidorBuy  - that was the whole point of my posting above - I only listed 6 points but there are many many more that one must consider before selling items on BidorBuy. 

KInd regards

Pierre 

Another contributor to your products selling at a higher price than another seller could also be variety. A buyer is more inclined to bid on your listings if they are multiple listings that interest them. Common items like 1993 banking rand sold together with more rare pieces like a high graded 97 women rand, generates interest and excitement. Compare this to a seller just selling four items for example and the interest is still there, but modest in comparison.  

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Pierre_Henri
5 hours ago, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

Another contributor to your products selling at a higher price than another seller could also be variety. A buyer is more inclined to bid on your listings if they are multiple listings that interest them. Common items like 1993 banking rand sold together with more rare pieces like a high graded 97 women rand, generates interest and excitement. Compare this to a seller just selling four items for example and the interest is still there, but modest in comparison.  

Yes, you are correct - that is also how I see it.

And like I have said, there could be many more reasons.

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unicoin

Hi guys, if someone is greedy you loose some hey.   About three years ago we were offered R300 000.00 for this

coin, but did not take the offer and look at it now.

 

Thanks for the info about posting the add.   I sold many many rare and graded coins, always give as much detail as possible

and all sold very well with very good prices.   I must say that time there were not near as much coins as there are today. Also

not as many graded ones.  Seeing it is not my own coin anymore, I have to check with the owner and forward the info and prices to him.

It is of no use to keep it if the price will not increase again.   Some people say it will go up again some say it will not.

 

Regards

Andrea

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unicoin
On 2/13/2018 at 12:48 AM, jwither said:

Aside from the weak market, the supply in NGC and PCGS holders has increased, a lot.

The NGC census is 16 in XF-45 with 12 graded higher.  The PCGS population is nine with eight graded higher.  Probably some duplicates given the value but still not a low number for a coin with a reputation for being scarce or rare, especially since I doubt there are many buyers of this series who'll ever be interested in paying anything remotely resembling the prior price for a mid to higher grade circulated coin, regardless of what happens to the market later.

If this is a coin you have owned for dealer stock (I assume you are a dealer), you'll need to make that evaluation for yourself.  No one else can really make it for you.

I'd be inclined to get rid of that coin and put the money to use elsewhere.

Lucky for us these were inhereted coins.   I am just unhappy we did not take more for grading.

There were many others, but did not know they were valuable.

 

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GROOVIE COINS
On 6/1/2018 at 9:41 AM, unicoin said:

Lucky for us these were inhereted coins.   I am just unhappy we did not take more for grading.

There were many others, but did not know they were valuable.

 

If that is the case and there is no pressing need to sell, perhaps another strategy would be to hold onto the coin? There is a old saying in the precious metals community when the price drops, you only lose out if you sell. 

I would think another global financial crises (which has historically occurred every 7 to 10 years or so) would drive investors back to tangible assets. The papers are full of many people who have been burned by all these crypto currency schemes. I attribute much of the slum in tangible investments over the last few years to a flight to more speculative crypto currencies. One only need see the drop in sales recently on the American Silver Eagle, a coin historically that used to sell in large numbers. 

But if you can play the waiting game, you might see the wind blow your direction again. It can go either way.

regards Robert

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unicoin

Thanks for all the comments. Maybe it was just a boom in this coins, we made a lot of money. Had veldpond, even a Sammy Marks Tickey, unfortunately that was not the real one, but a beautiful coin. I learned a lot about coins. Also that NGC can make mistakes. We sent a 1893 shilling for grading, came back with a problem. Cannot remember what it was. Someone said we must send it again for grading. Came back with a grade. We got R7000.00 for it. 

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jwither
On ‎6‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 5:22 AM, GROOVIE MOVIES said:

If that is the case and there is no pressing need to sell, perhaps another strategy would be to hold onto the coin? There is a old saying in the precious metals community when the price drops, you only lose out if you sell. 

I would think another global financial crises (which has historically occurred every 7 to 10 years or so) would drive investors back to tangible assets. The papers are full of many people who have been burned by all these crypto currency schemes. I attribute much of the slum in tangible investments over the last few years to a flight to more speculative crypto currencies. One only need see the drop in sales recently on the American Silver Eagle, a coin historically that used to sell in large numbers. 

But if you can play the waiting game, you might see the wind blow your direction again. It can go either way.

regards Robert

There is no demonstrated correlation between adverse economic conditions and coin prices.  The correlation is actually the opposite or at least it is in a country with a relatively stable currency.  In the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, all asset classes except the USD and (relatively) high quality debt either declined or crashed.  To my knowledge, "investment" type "rare" coins did not but the reason for this is that the financial duress was temporary.  This is aside from the fact that coins don't constitute a real market anyway since the market scale is financially irrelevant.  In the 1970's which is the historical precedent most often cited to support the sentiments expressed in your comments,  I'd describe it as a crisis of confidence in "hard" currencies but economic conditions were hardly that bad.

The difference between then and now is that by any sensible standard, most "investment" eligible coins are NOT "cheap".  Despite the decline in South African coin prices over the last 6+ years, these coin either or are among the worst relative values.  In the run-up to the 2011 peak, it was the result of speculative buying where "investors" engaged in outsized "widget" trading, not real collecting.  It should be evident now that these former buyers were disproportionately not real collectors and I have yet to see anything on this forum to indicate that actual increased interest in collecting will recapture the prior price peak or anything near it. If it happens again, it is probably going to be from another bubble.

In a real global financial crisis, coin prices will collapse, having no utility other than as collectible trinkets which no one needs for any purpose.  Under actual conditions of financial duress which are more than temporary, many owners will either choose or be forced to liquidate their collections along with anything else they have to generate liquidity.

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Coin Database

Coins pricing are all about supply and demand. Nothing else. Same holds true for any coin, whether it is the 2008 Mandela R5 or the 1893 1/2 Pond. The only difference between the buyers of the two coins is that the latter will be bought by investors or your more serious collector. Most other collectors generally do not have the type of money these coins demand. So, I agree, with these type of rare coins economical conditions do not play a role. Problem is, if they are truly rare or scarce, they will get their high prices. But, like any other collectibles, if two or three of them hit the market, most, if not all, investors will no longer consider them as rare. There will no longer be a demand for them at those price ranges, exactly what happened with the 1893 1/2 Pond last year. I know of at least 3 of them now in marketplaces, two of which is graded XF40-45. These coins were in the market for months now and they cannot even get R40k offers on them. I see the price on these coming down to the R20k mark in the near future.

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jwither
On ‎6‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 9:22 AM, Coin Database said:

Coins pricing are all about supply and demand. Nothing else. Same holds true for any coin, whether it is the 2008 Mandela R5 or the 1893 1/2 Pond. The only difference between the buyers of the two coins is that the latter will be bought by investors or your more serious collector. Most other collectors generally do not have the type of money these coins demand. So, I agree, with these type of rare coins economical conditions do not play a role. Problem is, if they are truly rare or scarce, they will get their high prices. But, like any other collectibles, if two or three of them hit the market, most, if not all, investors will no longer consider them as rare. There will no longer be a demand for them at those price ranges, exactly what happened with the 1893 1/2 Pond last year. I know of at least 3 of them now in marketplaces, two of which is graded XF40-45. These coins were in the market for months now and they cannot even get R40k offers on them. I see the price on these coming down to the R20k mark in the near future.

If there is even a relevant comparison for South African coins, it is the US TPG bubble which ended in 1989 after a speculative run-up led by limited partnerships sponsored by brokerage firms Kidder Peabody and Merill Lynch.  Though grading standards are looser or much looser now so a direct comparison is difficult, prices of most US TPG coins in "investment" grades (generically MS-65 at the time) have never recovered and are much lower now versus 29 years ago.  This is evident in the PGCGS indices which I linked in a prior post two or three years ago. 

Some of the coins have been "cracked-out', regraded and presumably are worth more now but it is still likely a minority.  Additionally, few if any of these "investors" either still own these coins or held it long enough to recover most or all of their outlay.  For the few who either did or do, they have still experienced a huge opportunity cost, as traditional asset classes (in other words, common stocks or shares) have experienced a massive bull market due to the credit mania since 1989 and have left coins in the dust financially anyway.

My opinion is that absent another bubble, neither US nor South African coins will ever recover the prior price level, especially measured in 1989 or 2011 purchasing power.  With South African coins, since prices are so volatile the primary exception is likely to be some greater fool  in isolation choosing to pay an inflated price for a coin in a particular grade which supposedly makes it "worth" a much higher price.

In South Africa, there is no evidence of sufficient interest in real collecting that gives anyone any reason whatsoever to believe in another outcome.  The price structure is the best evidence against it, as the highest grades selling for absurd premiums to slightly lower MS and higher grade AU examples doesn't demonstrate an interest in real collecting either.  This still applies to the currently "depressed" price level of today where the price structure still makes no sense.

With a coin such as the 1893 1/2 pond in XF, I don't believe it is just the supply which isn't actually that large.  If "real" collectors don't exist in sufficient numbers with sufficient funds to pay the (supposedly) current price, that just supports my claim (yet again) that it was disproportionately speculators who previously created the bubble. R40,000 isn't really that much money in 2018.

An equally likely reason is that this coin in this grade at this price isn't considered a very competitive coin, even within the South African series.  This coin isn't rare or even really that scarce except "grade scarce", XF ZAR gold isn't really that attractive and it's presumably those attempting to complete a full set who can also afford it who are the potential buyer pool.  There are a lot more ZAR set collectors than Union (almost none spending any noticeable money) but I doubt the number in the market for a circulated coin in this price range is that noticeable.  Most of the relatively few would rather buy something else.

Edited by jwither

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EWAAN Galleries
5 hours ago, jwither said:

If there is even a relevant comparison for South African coins, it is the US TPG bubble which ended in 1989 after a speculative run-up led by limited partnerships sponsored by brokerage firms Kidder Peabody and Merill Lynch.  Though grading standards are looser or much looser now so a direct comparison is difficult, prices of most US TPG coins in "investment" grades (generically MS-65 at the time) have never recovered and are much lower now versus 29 years ago.  This is evident in the PGCGS indices which I linked in a prior post two or three years ago. 

Some of the coins have been "cracked-out', regraded and presumably are worth more now but it is still likely a minority.  Additionally, few if any of these "investors" either still own these coins or held it long enough to recover most or all of their outlay.  For the few who either did or do, they have still experienced a huge opportunity cost, as traditional asset classes (in other words, common stocks or shares) have experienced a massive bull market due to the credit mania since 1989 and have left coins in the dust financially anyway.

My opinion is that absent another bubble, neither US nor South African coins will ever recover the prior price level, especially measured in 1989 or 2011 purchasing power.  With South African coins, since prices are so volatile the primary exception is likely to be some greater fool  in isolation choosing to pay an inflated price for a coin in a particular grade which supposedly makes it "worth" a much higher price.

In South Africa, there is no evidence of sufficient interest in real collecting that gives anyone any reason whatsoever to believe in another outcome.  The price structure is the best evidence against it, as the highest grades selling for absurd premiums to slightly lower MS and higher grade AU examples doesn't demonstrate an interest in real collecting either.  This still applies to the currently "depressed" price level of today where the price structure still makes no sense.

With a coin such as the 1893 1/2 pond in XF, I don't believe it is just the supply which isn't actually that large.  If "real" collectors don't exist in sufficient numbers with sufficient funds to pay the (supposedly) current price, that just supports my claim (yet again) that it was disproportionately speculators who previously created the bubble. R40,000 isn't really that much money in 2018.

An equally likely reason is that this coin in this grade at this price isn't considered a very competitive coin, even within the South African series.  This coin isn't rare or even really that scarce except "grade scarce", XF ZAR gold isn't really that attractive and it's presumably those attempting to complete a full set who can also afford it who are the potential buyer pool.  There are a lot more ZAR set collectors than Union (almost none spending any noticeable money) but I doubt the number in the market for a circulated coin in this price range is that noticeable.  Most of the relatively few would rather buy something else.

@jwither  do you ever think this numismatic market will recover from what it was a few years ago? Even with special coins like a veldpond or 1892 proof sets?

others say numismatic sales are doing wonderful at the moment? I can’t seem to find any evidence....

Edited by EWAAN Galleries

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culltony
On 3/4/2018 at 12:42 PM, Pierre_Henri said:

Not necessarily

There could be other reasons that I have not even stated ...

I am not sure what you paid for your listing, but I paid the following:- 

R50 for a Home Page Listing PLUS R10 for a Category Page Features listing PLUS R5 for a Priority Listing PLUS R5 for a Highlighted Listing PLUS R5 for a Bold Listing PLUS R5 for an Alternative Category Listing

So I paid R80 for my listing (to get more exposure and eyeballs) and say you paid R15 for yours (I am just guessing what you paid) 

So I actually paid R65 more than you but got R1000 more for my item - my " input cost" was more but my "return" was much more.

One must do you planning and home work before listing on BidorBuy  - that was the whole point of my posting above - I only listed 6 points but there are many many more that one must consider before selling items on BidorBuy. 

KInd regards

Pierre 

https://www.bidorbuy.co.za/item/346751311/Republic_of_South_Africa_GOLD_Tenth_Ounce_Krugerrand_of_1990.html

vs

https://www.bidorbuy.co.za/item/343659657/2000_1_10th_oz_Proof_Krugerrand_with_COA_Red_S_A_Mint_Box.html

and mine was on the home page (Featured Items) of the Krugerrand section for the length of the auction.....

It would seem your buyers (which is good for you) only look at your auctions

I rest my case

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Pierre_Henri
8 hours ago, culltony said:

https://www.bidorbuy.co.za/item/346751311/Republic_of_South_Africa_GOLD_Tenth_Ounce_Krugerrand_of_1990.html

vs

https://www.bidorbuy.co.za/item/343659657/2000_1_10th_oz_Proof_Krugerrand_with_COA_Red_S_A_Mint_Box.html

and mine was on the home page (Featured Items) of the Krugerrand section for the length of the auction.....

It would seem your buyers (which is good for you) only look at your auctions

I rest my case

Firstly, there is not much difference in the prices, and mine is also a featured item, but I added a priority listing to that (maybe you did the same?)

Secondly, the price is being driven up by a serial non-paying bidder 

https://www.bidorbuy.co.za/user/3022885/shantinkesh

(I have given up asking BoB to allow me to block these kind of bidders - If no SNC was filed against them in the past, one is totally helpless blocking them) 

Regards

Pierre

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jwither
19 hours ago, EWAAN Galleries said:

@jwither  do you ever think this numismatic market will recover from what it was a few years ago? Even with special coins like a veldpond or 1892 proof sets?

others say numismatic sales are doing wonderful at the moment? I can’t seem to find any evidence....

I don't buy any South African coins anymore, so I am not up on prices to the same extent as the past.

For the examples you specifically gave, I believe so though this is a generic response since the prices of these coins differ so wildly depending upon the TPG grade, specific quality of the coin and the price previously paid. 

The veld pond and some of the 1892 proofs have sufficient distinction.  Same applies to a coin such as the 1898/99 over stamp pond.  None of these coins are cheap but still are in the elite among ZAR coinage.  For the 1892 proofs, this applies to the penny, crown, half pond and pond.  The other four proofs, less in my opinion since the coins are far more common.

However, when I make these comments, I excluding outlier prices previously paid.  I don't believe the 1892 PR-65 RB penny which sold for just under $200,000 USD will ever recover, not in "real money" value.  Same applies to whoever paid almost $200,000 for the PR-66 CAM crown you previously sold on Heritage.  Likewise to the PR-65 (CAM) half crown which sold for $69,000 on Heritage.

For all other coins, most don't have much distinction even though those who promote them want to believe otherwise.  In this group, I am specifically including practically every single "investment" Union or ZAR coin in better MS or proof.  I make this statement, regardless of how rare or supposedly rare these coins are or likely are.

For these coins, my prediction is that most will suffer the same or a similar fate US "investment" type coins have experienced since 1989.

To give you one example, the Bakewell 1925 NGC MS-66 2/6 sold ungraded in the November 2006 Remick sale for about $2800.  NEN subsequently sold it in the NGC holder for about $6600.  At one point, it was probably worth at least $25,000 USD and I thought it had a chance to realize this price in the 2014 DNW sale.

I don't know what the coin is worth now but I can tell you that while I presume several South African buyers want it for quite a bit more than $6600 now, I'm not one of them since I don't actively collect the series anymore and I'd have to buy it at a substantial discount to the South African price to make it a worthwhile "investment".  This coin and others like it will still have to likely fall a long way from the likely current price before I would consider it competitive versus other coins I can buy for the same money.

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jwither
On ‎6‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 7:56 PM, EWAAN Galleries said:

others say numismatic sales are doing wonderful at the moment? I can’t seem to find any evidence....

They must be referring predominantly to low or mid priced coins sold on BoB; mid-priced by local standards which I would still consider lower budget by US standards.

I never checked BoB regularly and only know what I hear on this forum.

I used to check eBay regularly, but practically all of the listings even for NGC and PCGS coins are at "stupid money" ask prices.  Either a "Buy It Now" or opening bid that would leave the buyer hopelessly buried in the coin.  That's why the listings are so stale and stay there for months or even years, just as many on BoB.

Heritage is the only foreign source which has any decent selection of the scarcer South African coins, but drastically less than before and recent prices can only be described as what you locals would call weak.  In the April Chicago sale, this includes the Sammy Marks tickey, 1930 MS-65 1/, 1930 MS-65 2/6, 1892 6D (both MS-64 and MS-65), 1923 6D MS-66, 1874 SP-66 2P and 1924 sovereign (both coins). 

The 1923 PR-66 sovereign at $6000 was strong (absurdly overpriced by my standards since it is a common coin) but that's probably because it's likely the only Union coin widely collected by foreigners as part of the sovereign series.

Per my immediate prior post, of the coins I listed, only the Sammy Marks tickey has sufficient distinction where I think it justifiably should possibly recover it's bubble level price.

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EWAAN Galleries
On 6/12/2018 at 11:11 PM, jwither said:

I don't buy any South African coins anymore, so I am not up on prices to the same extent as the past.

For the examples you specifically gave, I believe so though this is a generic response since the prices of these coins differ so wildly depending upon the TPG grade, specific quality of the coin and the price previously paid. 

The veld pond and some of the 1892 proofs have sufficient distinction.  Same applies to a coin such as the 1898/99 over stamp pond.  None of these coins are cheap but still are in the elite among ZAR coinage.  For the 1892 proofs, this applies to the penny, crown, half pond and pond.  The other four proofs, less in my opinion since the coins are far more common.

However, when I make these comments, I excluding outlier prices previously paid.  I don't believe the 1892 PR-65 RB penny which sold for just under $200,000 USD will ever recover, not in "real money" value.  Same applies to whoever paid almost $200,000 for the PR-66 CAM crown you previously sold on Heritage.  Likewise to the PR-65 (CAM) half crown which sold for $69,000 on Heritage.

For all other coins, most don't have much distinction even though those who promote them want to believe otherwise.  In this group, I am specifically including practically every single "investment" Union or ZAR coin in better MS or proof.  I make this statement, regardless of how rare or supposedly rare these coins are or likely are.

For these coins, my prediction is that most will suffer the same or a similar fate US "investment" type coins have experienced since 1989.

To give you one example, the Bakewell 1925 NGC MS-66 2/6 sold ungraded in the November 2006 Remick sale for about $2800.  NEN subsequently sold it in the NGC holder for about $6600.  At one point, it was probably worth at least $25,000 USD and I thought it had a chance to realize this price in the 2014 DNW sale.

I don't know what the coin is worth now but I can tell you that while I presume several South African buyers want it for quite a bit more than $6600 now, I'm not one of them since I don't actively collect the series anymore and I'd have to buy it at a substantial discount to the South African price to make it a worthwhile "investment".  This coin and others like it will still have to likely fall a long way from the likely current price before I would consider it competitive versus other coins I can buy for the same money.

Many thanks for your posting  - you couldn't have said it better..

Just for interest sake which series of world coins would you recommend is still doing okay for those of us who are purely in this for the money?

 

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jwither
50 minutes ago, EWAAN Galleries said:

Many thanks for your posting  - you couldn't have said it better..

Just for interest sake which series of world coins would you recommend is still doing okay for those of us who are purely in this for the money?

 

I wish I could give you an answer or some practical options, but I cannot.

The only coins I am really buying now are Spanish colonial pillars from Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru.  However, there is no financial buying (aka, "investment") of these coins to my knowledge.  The best financial prospects are probably higher grade/quality Mexico coins which most US collectors buy as type coins.  However, I'd never buy any of these coins for financial reasons.

Due to my financial outlook, I wouldn't buy any coin for speculation today.  The reason is that I believe there will be much better opportunities to do so later at lower prices when the financial markets crash.

As a dealer in South Africa, your best option is to do what I presume you are doing now, buy South African coins for inventory for sale to your local customers.  Buying coins from elsewhere without sufficient familiarity is a recipe for losing money.

However, if I "had" to recommend something, I'd probably look to buy the top coins from markets that are much cheaper than the USA, Australia or even South Africa.  In the past, I have mentioned the 1934 New Zealand proof set.  Noble Numismatics sold it once or twice, including in 2004 for about $12,000 USD.  It has a recoded mintage of 20 but is believed to be the only set in a private collection.  I consider it #1 from this market, it's definitely an ultra elite set and in my opinion at anywhere near this price, ridiculously cheap.  However, I can't say it won't stay indefinitely cheap and it's effectively impossible to buy.

 

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Pierre_Henri
On 6/13/2018 at 2:03 PM, jwither said:

They must be referring predominantly to low or mid priced coins sold on BoB; mid-priced by local standards which I would still consider lower budget by US standards.

I never checked BoB regularly and only know what I hear on this forum.

Going for twice its catalog value and ungraded - this is an example of what I had in mind when I said things are looking good.

Union of South Africa: Uncirculated & Lustrous Penny of 1931

Please don't tell me that the buyer paid too much and will sell it at a profit with difficulty in future. 

There were TWO buyers for this coin at that price and BOTH are COIN COLLECTORS and not speculators /investors - BOTH were willing to pay double the catalog value.

Pierre

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jwither
5 hours ago, Pierre_Henri said:

Going for twice its catalog value and ungraded - this is an example of what I had in mind when I said things are looking good.

Union of South Africa: Uncirculated & Lustrous Penny of 1931

Please don't tell me that the buyer paid too much and will sell it at a profit with difficulty in future. 

There were TWO buyers for this coin at that price and BOTH are COIN COLLECTORS and not speculators /investors - BOTH were willing to pay double the catalog value.

Pierre

You assume far too much as I wasn't referring to your comment, since I must have missed that you even made it.

I don't make statements about buyer's overpaying or buying coins for financial reasons, unless it is apparent from the coin and the price that this is likely, as it has been when I have made these statements in the past. 

My prior comments have been on the higher TPG graded MS and proof coins where the price spread is (totally) disproportionate to a slightly lower grade and the merits of a coin as a collectible. 

This does not apply to this coin because the combination of the price, quality and what the coin is (a better date KGV 1D) better demonstrates that a "real" collector did buy it.  The price isn't mostly in the plastic as it was when I made my prior comments,

So yes, I agree with you on this statement.

It might be a TPG (NGC or PCGS) uncirculated example but I consider the strike weak.  It does have nice color though.

As for the price versus the catalog, since Hern's prices are just made up and have nothing to do with reality, this result says nothing about the health of the market or lack of it.

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Pierre_Henri
17 hours ago, jwither said:

You assume far too much as I wasn't referring to your comment, since I must have missed that you even made it.

I don't make statements about buyer's overpaying or buying coins for financial reasons, unless it is apparent from the coin and the price that this is likely, as it has been when I have made these statements in the past. 

My prior comments have been on the higher TPG graded MS and proof coins where the price spread is (totally) disproportionate to a slightly lower grade and the merits of a coin as a collectible. 

This does not apply to this coin because the combination of the price, quality and what the coin is (a better date KGV 1D) better demonstrates that a "real" collector did buy it.  The price isn't mostly in the plastic as it was when I made my prior comments,

So yes, I agree with you on this statement.

It might be a TPG (NGC or PCGS) uncirculated example but I consider the strike weak.  It does have nice color though.

As for the price versus the catalog, since Hern's prices are just made up and have nothing to do with reality, this result says nothing about the health of the market or lack of it.

It seems that you also assume far too much - I was not referring to Herns Catalogue, but the new MTB catalogue.

Whatever, I always enjoy your posts and comments.

Just a point of correction - when I posted my reply above, the coin in question (auction) was not closed yet.  

To my astonishment, it almost doubled in the last few hours and was won by a dealer (I was referring to two collectors competing at the time of posting).

So if the dealer saw some merit in the coin, and send it for TPG , she probably believes that it will sell for twice what was paid for it.

Here is another example of an UNGRADED  coin going for twice its catalog value - (readers of our forum will remember the coin) 

Union of South Africa: Shilling of 1949 (Only Proofs Issued in 1949)

So for those that are always negative about SA numismatics (not you Ernesto), believe me,  things are looking good from my point of view.

Pierre

 

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dcdoberman
1 hour ago, Pierre_Henri said:

It seems that you also assume far too much - I was not referring to Herns Catalogue, but the new MTB catalogue.

Whatever, I always enjoy your posts and comments.

Just a point of correction - when I posted my reply above, the coin in question (auction) was not closed yet.  

To my astonishment, it almost doubled in the last few hours and was won by a dealer (I was referring to two collectors competing at the time of posting).

So if the dealer saw some merit in the coin, and send it for TPG , she probably believes that it will sell for twice what was paid for it.

Here is another example of an UNGRADED  coin going for twice its catalog value - (readers of our forum will remember the coin) 

Union of South Africa: Shilling of 1949 (Only Proofs Issued in 1949)

So for those that are always negative about SA numismatics (not you Ernesto), believe me,  things are looking good from my point of view.

Pierre

 

Sorry Pierre , but I don't understand why someone would pay that for a horrendously impaired proof if he could purchase a perfect full set for a few bucks more.

I'm really confused to my mind these bidders are even more confused than I .....

Am I missing something here ?

Regards

Des

Edited by dcdoberman
Add questions

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jwither
1 hour ago, Pierre_Henri said:

It seems that you also assume far too much - I was not referring to Herns Catalogue, but the new MTB catalogue.

Whatever, I always enjoy your posts and comments.

Pierre

 

Not familiar with the MTB catalogue but the prices in it are also made up,  I can make this statement because all catalogs are immediately wrong the moment printed.

I also want to make it clear that I don't see a direct correlation between the price level and the health of the hobby.  That's how most on this forum seem to measure it but it is wrong. 

It is also the same mentality most contributors on the NGC Message Boards and PCGS Forum seem to hold.  

Regardless of how much any coin is worth, it doesn't keep a collector from buying coins they want (may make it somewhat more difficult though), enjoying the coins they already have or working to complete their collections.

It just means that those who paid the higher inflated prices may or will lose money.

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Pierre_Henri
39 minutes ago, jwither said:

Regardless of how much any coin is worth, it doesn't keep a collector from buying coins they want (may make it somewhat more difficult though), enjoying the coins they already have or working to complete their collections.

100% in agreement ...

Edited by Pierre_Henri
Even more agreement

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