Feels like my coins & notes business started slowing down this year 2015

[multi collection 10]

Dear All

 

Feels like my coins & notes business started slowing down this year 2015

I'm not sure this also happen to others Sellers

 

For Example:

1. 2008 Mandela R5 coin is easy to be sold for R20 each last year 2014, this year 2015 is very difficult to get sold for R20, I started to put on R1 start auction, the end auction buyer highest bid is R12 each, sometimes I also loose the money and time for the buyer highest bid only R4 each.

 

2. 2008 Mandela R5 Proof Sets (Original Price is R15000) easy can be sold for R18000 ~ R22000 each last year 2014, this year 2015 even I loose the money and change the price to R14000 still nobody want to buy.

 

3. Any other types of the coins (ZAR, Union, Notes.....) do the same thing, business is getting worst this year compare to last year.

 

I donno what is happening to the Coins & Notes Market now.

 

I'm very disappointed this year, all my coins are brings very difficult to resale: no value, no profit, no investment return and also loose money and time.

 

Anyone agree with me ???

 

Regard

Multi Collection

Edited July 26, 2015 by multi collection

[Pierre_Henri 97]

About 7 years ago, someone asked the same question here on this forum I think it was Brink Laubcher from Coins-are-Us.

 

My answer then was the same as it is now.

 

Junk coins sell for junk prices

 

Middle of the road coins sell for whatever you can get for them

 

Outstanding coins sell for outstanding prices.

 

If you wish to sell a circulated Mandela R5 for R6 then heaven helps the buyer

 

If you have a 1931 Half Crown certified by NGC as AU50 then the buyer will help heaven

 

That is how the coin business has always been and will always be.

 

If you wish to invest in coins then buy the best and sell the rest

 

Pierre

Edited July 26, 2015 by Pierre_Henri

[Ni28 11]

I was fortunate to purchase a rare 2^nd decimal pattern (MS65) at the Sandton coin show for two-thirds of catalogue price (going back in the old catalogues, I got it for the 2009 price). Are we entering a buyer’s market? Good for the collectors still growing their collections, but unfortunately not good for the sellers. I also see that one of the well-known dealers (with the outlets in the various Malls), recently closed their branch in the Mall close to my house, so obviously they were not doing well there. There are exceptions, however, and I see a few BoB sellers doing exceptionally well if they sell good items and if they start their auctions at reasonable prices.

 

What intrigues me is whether this slow coin market is simply a symptom of the crash in commodity prices in general. The Telegraph reported on 29 January that the Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the global prices of 22 different commodities such as gold, oil wheat and coffee, collapsed to its lowest level since August 2002. Prices are declining and the question we need to ask is whether it is feasible to maintain increasing coin prices in this environment. I suppose collectible coins are more than just another commodity, but I always felt that the intrinsic value of the coins (gold and silver) forms part of the allure of even the collector coins. It would be interesting to hear the forum’s views on this. Luckily these commodities are cyclical and the good times will return at some stage to put money back in people’s pockets to buy collectible coins again!

 

[jwither 17]

To the initial post, I am surprised your business has only slowed down this year. I can see that it is worse than last year but I would have expected this would have been noticeable no later than 2013 because prices for Union and ZAR peaked either at YE 2011 or early 2012, at least in USD terms though maybe not Rand.

 

I also agree with Pierre's comments, to a point. The clarification I would add is that if the market is weak enough for long enough (as it has been for at least the last few years), outstanding coins will still sell for less than they did in a strong one (2011). I have not been an active buyer of South African coins since 2008, only on occassion since then. I still follow prices but mostly in foreign auctions, not BoB.

 

In the US, the market is "in the dumpster' for most US coins according to the NGC and PCGS forums. I don't know if it actually is (since I do not buy them) but if so, it differs from South Africa (and most others) in the sense that it is a lot more dependent upon econoomic conditions because the participation is much greater. As I explained before, I believe that the weak prices in your country are more of a function of the individual financial circumstances of a particular buyer and a "buyer's strike" by "investors". Given the trivial sums involved in the aggregate, I don't see much of a correlation to the economy at all. True, commodity prices (including gold) were (much) higher in 2011 and 2012, but then its my understanding that this forms a (much) smaller part of your ecomony than it did in the past, though its still important.

 

With the better coins, what usually happens in the US is that it is not available for sale in a weak market IF the buyer can afford to keep it because in the past, these declines have been temporary and most would prefer to hang on to it rather than sell at a loss. I see evidence of this for SA coins on Heritage to a limited extent but the distinction to me is that this presumes that the owner is a real collector and not just a speculator (aka, "investor"). Proportionately, I believe there are a lot more speculators versus collectors in your country than in the United States for the reasons I have provided before. This was mostly evident in the Mandela craze but also in ZAR and Union.

 

The other consideration which all of you need to think about is this one. I have heard more than a few comments about the current "weak" market. I agree it is weak but not for the same coins all of you do. I believe a bubble existed even for many (if not most) of the more expensive ZAR and Union which was the result of excessive speculation, not real collecting. If this is correct as I believe it is, then there is no reason to expect a return to " normalcy" later because what existed until YE 2011 was not normal at all. YE 2011 is the benchmark that I believe is the general consensus of "normal" on this forum.

 

NZ28 previously started another topic on the correlation between metal and coin prices. As i stated there, I can see that higher metal prices will bring in some "investors' who will buy "investment" coins as a substitute but the difference with the US is that there aren't really very many SA coins which are substitutes. During the next recovery in bullion prices, I believe the coin market will improve - somewhat. But what will be missing is the Mandela bubble which might have been at least as big of a factor. It isn't coming back and I don't believe those buyers are coming back either.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2015 by jwither