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Pierre_Henri

Anyone wants to buy a Mandela R5?

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Pierre_Henri

Am I the only one noticing how suddenly the listing of Mandela coins have disappeared from the top pages of the Wednesdays crazy auctions?

In the past, one could click on page after page after page and it would be filled & swamped with Mandela R5 coins.

 

Only here and there would a ZAR, Union or foreign coin or bank note pop up.

 

Suddenly, the Mandelas are gone - like many of us predicted - with only a flickering here and there.

 

Seems like the end is nigh?

 

Pierre

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Ni28

I am intrigued by the apparent resilience of the Mandela coin sales and collected some data during the last three weeks. At the August 2008 meeting of the NNS, a paper was presented with the title “Trends in South African coin prices and the role of catalogues”. The presenter explored whether the use of inferential statistical methods (e.g mean, standard deviation of a sample) can assist people who compile coin catalogues. The 2000 Mandela coin sold on “a local internet auction site” (must be Bid or Buy) was used as an example. For the period 29 July to 4 August 2008 and 10 August to 16 August 2008, 23 coins were sold on this site. The selling prices varied from R1850 to R13550 with an average price of R4979. I am not sure what grades was chosen as the sample. The paper only refers to “encapsulated R5 Mandela coins (year 2000)”.

 

I tried to repeat the exercise during July 2014 and looked at the selling prices of the encapsulated PL Mandela 2000 coins. I had to wait from 5 July 2014 to 25 July to get a reasonable sample (20 sales). The prices for these coins varied from R167 to R1900 with an average of R520.

 

Conclusion: This is now exactly 6 years after the NNS paper was compiled and the average selling price of the 2000 Mandela R5 dropped from R4979 to R520. These values are not adjusted for inflation, so it is a rather steep decline in price.

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SADiamondsrus

End is nigh

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jwither

I don't see why this should be surprising. These coins are as a common as a grain of sand on the beach, except as "conditional rarities" and even then, likely available in a higher quantity than their proponents expect. The last count I saw in MS-69 for the 2008 90th BD 5R was 11 at NGC and I believe two with PCGS. Even this is common for a 'conditional rarity".

 

I presume (since I do not actually know) that most of the 40,000 (?) 2000 PR and PL must still exist with a large proportion in at least mid 60's grades. Regardless of the exact number, given the number of both current and prospective collectors, I do not see that there will ever be enough buyers who are going to pay more than a nominal price for most of them.

 

On a related note, I also recall exchanging posts with someone who asked about the whereabouts of these coins and the 1994 5R. I have not looked for this post but my recollection is that the census count for the 1994 at the time was rather low and that these were not often encountered in circulation. Well, today it is over 14000 circulation strikes with a large number even in MS-67. I presume that some unspecified multiple must also exist and don't see that these should sell for more than a nominal premium either.

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