The Fallacy of Coin Catalogues (The NGC price guide does not make the grade)...

[Pierre_Henri 14]

Because of long hours working, I seldom surf the NGC site – but tonight I had a look to see if a 1944 SA Union Shilling (1/-) in Mint state has been discovered since I looked many months ago.

The answer is NO – not a single coin of this year has been graded in MS yet.

So for a SA Shilling (including all Paul Kruger ZAR dates), this coin (1944 1/-) is only topped in (grading wise) scarcity by the 1931 Shilling.

But what really intrigues me, is the NGC price guide – I clicked on the 1931 Shilling and saw that they value the 1931 date in MS at US$600 in MS and US$1200 in proof.

 

R6600 for a 1931 Shilling in uncirculated condition? Nonsense .... ! The price should be ten times that at least!

 

So I had a look at the 1944 Shilling in MS condition (it actually does not exists in graded form yet) – NGC catalogues it at R825 (US$75) in uncirculated condition. I suspect that it would actually sell for 50-times + that amount.

 

Hern catalogues (my Hern-issue is 2010/11) the 1931 1/- in MS at a more realistic R60 000 and the 1944 1/- in MS at a feeble R5000. In my view last mentioned is worth say 10 times that amount at least – the sky is really the limit.

My actual problem with coin catalogues is that many of the cataloguers just up their prices with the inflation index (year after year) and seldom look at the actual scarcity of the coins via sales and grading statistics that are now so available to all of us.

When buying true rarities like these two examples (1931 and 1944 Shillings) it is better to rely on your own research than believing what catalogues say.

 

They seldom if ever do in-depth research.

Pierre

[jwither 10]

The NGC Price Guide is the same as the US Krause catalogs. I have commented on its lack of accuracy here many times. I have the 1998 version and an electronic copy (for Africa) from 2010 I believe. The prices are either almost or entirely identical, a complete absurdity.

 

Hern is either better or worse, depending upon your point of view. I will give it credit for at least updating the prices every edition but it still get an "F" from me for being so obviously wrong across the board. As a local catalog, I would expect it to be a lot more accurate than Krause but it really isn't. And yes, I recognize the general lack of accuracy of any annual price guide. Accuracy is actually an oxymoron.

 

One absurd practice both share in common is the pricing of coins which have either never sold in a specific grade (as in the example you gave), never sold at the listed price (at least publictly) and may not even exist (as you also stated). I believe both the 1931 and 1944 1/ exist in MS, but some other coins (especially those listed in Krause) may not.

 

As for the specific prices of those two coins, given the price structure of Union today, I would expect both to sell for more or a lot more than even your higher estimates. I sold one of the two or three 1944 1/ NGC AU-58 for $2500 back in 2009. Its the one in the Bakewell collection at which time the count was exactly ONE. Despite the current market, I think it could sell for more even though the lopsided proportion of buyers in your country irrationally disproportionately consider anything below MS inferior. Because of the lack of prior sales, I did not want to offer it either on eBay or through a venue like Heritage. I do not think I could have obtained the same price. If I lived in South Africa, I would have offerred it privately to multiple potential buyers. I did offer it to two others, but both of them rejected it because it was not MS, DESPITE the fact it was the only one in the combined census.

 

The 1931, I believe R60000 or about $5400 is far too low. Despite the weak Union market at present, I suspect that $25000 is probably a more realistic number, even if the grade is a low one such as an MS-61 or 62. I would value it fourth or fifth among the circulation strikes which would be the 1931 florin, 1931 tickey, 1931 halfcrown and maybe the 1923 sovereign. The 1931 tickey is likely worth more in lower grade but I think all three of these coins are worth about the same in MS or near it.

 

As another basis of comparison, the 1927 NGC MS-64 1/ Heritage sold about a year ago fetched $17000+, a price I did and still do consider excessive. I believe the 1931/ in the same grade should easily be worth five times as much, though not $85000. The Bakewell NGC MS-64 1925 florin is a coin that I believe still could fetch $50,000. I believe the 1931 1/ is easily more desirable than this coin.

Edited January 30, 2014 by jwither

[Pierre_Henri 14]

If one really try to figure out the value of a coin, it is probably not the scarcity of it (number minted) – but the number of collectors collecting and chasing after it.

A Malawian or Somalian or Botswanian or whatever non-descript country with only one coin minted in whatever condition would probably be a dead duck in any auction.

It’s all about the number of collectors chasing a coin and not really its scarcity and the number minted.

That is the reason for the differences in prices between Union and ZAR coins and (hold your breath) Mandela coins.

Pierre

[Sanjurg 10]

I do have 1944 in f+ condition ungraded , give me 10 000 and it is yours /

[Sanjurg 10]

So for the HERNS CAT ? Prices based on ? We have seen he reversal of the price , integrity etc of the "pregnant " springbok in the cat 2005 - 2013 ? so who questions this ? What has the price inflation or has it being taken into account for rand versus dollar / the amount of coins being melted ? i personally think that despite the cat prices for example the 60 - 90 gold R1 AND R2 . From a collectors point there are far less than we imagine or value !

[Pierre_Henri 14]

I do have 1944 in f+ condition ungraded , give me 10 000 and it is yours /

 

10 000 what?