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coinoisseur

Biggest News For South African Numismatics

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coinoisseur    10
coinoisseur

Hello Everyone

 

This is probably the biggest news for South African Numismatics. The Entire Robert Bakewell Collection of coins will go on auction this year. The collection which will be defined as "The Finest Known" comprises of ZAR, Union, Decimal and Patterns both Mint State and Proofs. The collection will be auctioned as one lot with a reserve of 2.2 Million GBP (R40Mil). DNW London has been awarded the rights to market and auction this collection which will go on sale in September 2014. Robert Bakewell is well known for his desire and passion in obtaining the finest known South African coins. Some of the proof sets will certainly make ones mouth water, like the almost impossible 1926 set. Having won numerous NGC awards for his collection, this auction will certainly keep everyone on their toes in the coming months. DNW will for the first time, auction an entire collection as a single entity.

 

One thing for sure is, some of the coins in this collection will be hard to beat in terms of grade and some will be impossible to obtain.

 

So I guess anyone with R40mil lying around and wants to own the finest known, here is your chance..... :smile1:

 

 

Cheers

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jwither    10
jwither

My observations:

 

I agree it will be the highest profile sale of SA coins ever and it has the potential to increase the visbility of these coins, especially among foreign collectors. I consider DNW and Heritage the best sources to sell such a collection.

 

I believe that higher prices would probably be realized by selling the collection in multiple though not necessarily individual coin lots. I do not see that there will be many bidders for the collection as a whole because there aren't many (if any) actual collectors who can afford it. I suspect that a group of dealers will end up buying it collectively and then divide it for subsequent sale.

 

I'm not interested in finest known generically but there are certain coins that I would consider buying if the prices are reasonable and they are offered for sale subsequently.

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PBGold    10
PBGold

Very interesting, must keep a watch on this.

 

Think I'll take it, but 6 months budget on my credit card...

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jcriller    11
jcriller

This is going to be a great moment in sa coin history

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri

Good News all Around ...

 

This is going to be a great moment in sa coin history

 

I hope this huge event will catapult SA coins right back into the limelight to where it belongs.

 

More good news is that we have another wonderful collection in the NGC Oscars this year ...

https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/awards/WinningSigSetDetail.aspx?SigSetAwardSetID=7059

Well done to Morgan the Brave -- Absolutely wonderful ...

 

Pierre

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jwither    10
jwither

What is your definition of limelight?

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri
What is your definition of limelight?

 

Where the sun always and for ever shines.

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jwither    10
jwither
Where the sun always and for ever shines.

 

In terms of exposure, DNW will get the results published in a source like the US Coin Week and probably on the NGC website since all of the coins are in their holders. Otherwise, many already know about these coins and have the opportunity to find out through a source like Heritage if they do not but want to do so.

 

As to whether the sale will attract more money and result in higher prices which is what I believe you were implying and which is what most (if not everyone) here feverishly hopes, the answer is "it depends". If it does attract new money, there is the possibility that it will have a "trickledown effect" on the coins everyone else here owns. At some point since SA coins have been in a "bear market" (from December 2011), prices are going to reverse but even when they do, I don't think it will last for reasons which have nothing to do with SA coins, coins generally or even economic conditions specific to your country. It's for the reasons I covered in that other topic which I will not name now.

 

It’s also going to depend upon what happens to the coins after DNW sells them. Per my first post here, I expect one dealer or a consortium of dealers - almost certainly from South Africa - to be the buyers. There may be one or a few collectors with the financial capacity to pay R40MM or more but if so, you or others here will know that better than I do.

 

A third and much less likely option would be someone like Stephen Fenton, the proprietor of Knightsbridge Coins (St James auctions) who I understand has dealt in SA coins in the past. He was also reportedly the owner of the US 1933 Double Eagle which was previously seized by the US Secret Service and then auctioned for $7.59MM. So he probably has the money to buy the collection if he chooses to do so.

 

Problem is of course, I do not know what someone like him would do with it. I do not see that there are anywhere near enough collectors (and certainly not "investors") outside of South Africa who would be interested in most of the collection at anywhere near what you locals will pay, much less what you think the coins should be worth. I have made this comment more times than I can even remember.

 

In theory, there could be a decent number of buyers for the ZAR part of the collection. However, I do not see that most of these coins are that distinguished where it will increase their profile meaningfully. Most of them are available elsewhere. It’s only some such as the 1893-1895 shillings, 2 shillings and half crowns and maybe the 1892 SS pond (a coin I consider badly over rated) that I think are exceptions. For Union, I don't believe there is much of a market for these coins outside of SA at all. If one or more SA dealers buy it as I suspect, I expect most of it to be subsequently sold through a combination of private sales, on Heritage, on BoB and presumably "over the counter".

 

If enough funds don't show up to absorb this supply, it’s also going to take a while (as in maybe one to several years) to dispose of it at a profit. My expectation is that some new money will materialize to buy much of the collection, but probably not enough in a short period of time. If this turns out to be correct, I expect that it will displace what otherwise will come up for sale which result in even weaker prices for what will be available anyway. Prospective buyers will pursue these better coins versus those they would have bought otherwise, IF they can afford them.

 

From my standpoint, there are a handful of coins I would like to buy that are not available otherwise, but it’s unlikely I will do so. There are also others which though among the best or near it, are now available in the same and sometimes even in higher grades which they were not before. I expect many of these will not sell for particularly strong prices (if offered subsequently) and these are probably the ones I will look to buy.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50    10
geejay50

Hi Folks,

 

Whatever the sale of this excellent set brings, we all wish Robert a profitable one and that there will be buyers in a shallow delicate market.There will be much local and overseas interest. Hopefully the print media will also give coverage ?

 

I have had contact with Robert for a number of years and he has been an inspiration to me. We have had some memorable tussles to try and secure the finest known. I am sure many of us in the Rare Coin market have been and will continue to be influenced by his passionate quest for the best.Having a 'Robert Bakewell ' accolade on a graded coin will be noted by one and all along with great collectors such as Froelich,JJ Pittman, Remick and Eliasberg.

 

In a market full of short term money chases, Robert has I think given us a culture of collectible numismatics. He has bought,exhibited at coin shows and held for long enough to have a collection that ordinary folk can appreciate instead of having rare coins that are only featured in the pages of Catalogues. He has given us a chance to see the real depth of South African Numismatics .

 

We depend heavily on the integrity of NGC and PCGS and their grading standards for the assessed value of such a collection. It is a vote of confidence in that direction should it be sold.

 

Robert will not sell all his coins though I hope and will still be involved in the future.

 

Best wishes forward

 

Geejay

Edited by geejay50

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri

Cannot help you in English ...

 

Hi Folks,

 

Whatever the sale of this excellent set brings, we all wish Robert a profitable one and that there will be buyers in a shallow delicate market.There will be much local and overseas interest. Hopefully the print media will also give coverage ?

 

Geejay

 

Maybe someone know who the spokesmen (press officer or marketing manager) of the SA Coin Dealers Association and the SA Coin Collectors Association are. (Or whatever the correct names of these organizations are)

If so, please ask them how many press releases were send out immediately to all the big SA newspapers on receiving this stunning numismatic news.

He or she can just copy Anthony’s post above as that packs a punch and is as good as it gets. The message will be very crypt and clear.

If Robert is fairly fluent in Afrikaans, I should be able to get him to talk about his astonishing achievement on National Radio (Radio Sonder Grense) but if he “sukkel” with Afrikaans, maybe someone else can stand in for him?

 

Any takers?

Pierre

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ZarLady    10
ZarLady

Well he lives in the Vaal so i think his Afrikaans could not be the worst , I have met him and he is a very down to earth guy.

 

He shows alot of pride in his collection, and it is understandable as he spent over 10 years building up this splendid collection.

 

As i understand it this is not his only collection and we will likely hear alot more from him in the numismatic circle.

 

ZarLady

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri
Well he lives in the Vaal so i think his Afrikaans could not be the worst , I have met him and he is a very down to earth guy.

 

He shows alot of pride in his collection, and it is understandable as he spent over 10 years building up this splendid collection.

 

As i understand it this is not his only collection and we will likely hear alot more from him in the numismatic circle.

 

ZarLady

 

Is he available for an interview in Afrikaans on RSG (Radio Sonder Grense) in Cape Town?

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ZarLady    10
ZarLady

I f you provide me with contact details i will give it to him and his afrikaans speaking friend. who both reside in the Vaal Triangle. Please private message me the details

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Ambassadors Invest    10
Ambassadors Invest

Hi Pierre

 

I'm meeting him tomorrow - Will ask him if I can pass his details on to you to discuss.

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solik    10
solik

Hi

 

As a novice to the industry, I was wondering what everyones thoughts were as to why DNW was chosen as apposed to Heritage.

 

Having a look at DNW's auction that is coming up on the 2nd and 3rd April, DNW seems to underestimate the value of some RSA coins.

 

Assuming Heritage wouldve jumped at the opportunity to market this highlight collection and may have a bigger collectors base?

 

What does everyone think?

 

Thanks.

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jwither    10
jwither
Hi

 

As a novice to the industry, I was wondering what everyones thoughts were as to why DNW was chosen as apposed to Heritage.

 

Having a look at DNW's auction that is coming up on the 2nd and 3rd April, DNW seems to underestimate the value of some RSA coins.

 

Assuming Heritage wouldve jumped at the opportunity to market this highlight collection and may have a bigger collectors base?

 

What does everyone think?

 

Thanks.

 

In theory, there shouldn't be any difference in the price realized between DNW and Heritage. Most of the buyers (whether in South Africa or elsewhere) who are actively looking for these coins know of both. In practice, there probably is one because the market is not "efficient" but I have never made a direct comparison between the two. I'm not even sure it is possible since finding equivalent coins which sold in close proximity is not very likely.

 

The other problem with this comparison is that prices are wildly unpredictable from one sale to the next and sometimes even from the same source. Just in the last two weeks, Jonathan Kern (a PNG dealer in the USA) sold the 1948 1/2D in MS-64 RD on two occassions. The one in the NGC holder sold for $306 and the PCGS coin for $48. There is no logic in that outcome at all, regardless that some may prefer NGC to PCGS and the coins are not exactly equal. For those who do not think this is representative of the collection, there is also the 1931 PR 1/ which I mentioned here in a prior post (maybe 18 month ago) which sold on BoB for about $9000 USD in NGC PR-65 and then a few weeks later, DNW sold an NGC PR-66 for about $3000.

 

I have never consigned to a firm like these two, but (presumably) the determining factor is going to be how much the seller thinks they can net from either source. Aside from the prices realized, what we cannot know is what kind of a "rebate" was offered by both. By this I mean the portion of the buyer's fees and yes, I assume that Mr Bakewell will actually receive more than 100% of the hammer price. I know Heritage would offer it because this is common practice in the USA. So I assume DNW has also.

 

I think the bigger question is why the entire collection is being offered as one lot. No one has asked that here and I do not know the reason either. The only (financial) one that comes to mind is that maybe because the market for South African coins is not exactly robust right now (a modest understatement), that maybe the expectation is that many of the coins would either realize unacceptably low prices or fail to meet any reserve.

 

I believe that this would be likely for those that are not actually elite which is many of them. The collection is obviously exceptional, but many of the coins now are more available in the same grades/comporable quality than they were in the recent past, as in even five years ago. These are the coins that I think would do poorly and proportionately, there are many of them.

 

For those that are the most highly desired which yes are still many, it would just depend upon who happens to (figuratively speaking) show up for the auction. Obviously, every collector of this series is going to be interested in many of these coins because many are (possibly) the best or among the best and not often for sale. It is a landmark sale. The question is, how much can they and will they actually pay? The format of the sale to me implies that the conclusion is there aren't that many strong buyers in the current market who will "pay up" Because if this isn't true, then i would expect the coins to be offered in a combination of single lots for most and group lots for the rest.

 

On your question on the estimates for the RSA coins, I would not put much stock in that. I do not recall these coins coming up for sale before though I probably just don't rememebr. But regardless, it isn't uncommon for auction firms to provide intentionally low estimates. One reason I have heard is to encourage bidding interest (a psychological incentive) though that won't work on me. The second is that, at least in other fields (such as art), auctioneers make advances (loans) prior to the auction and obviously, prudent credit management requires that they don't expose themselves by overestimating the hammer price.

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jwither    10
jwither
In terms of exposure, DNW will get the results published in a source like the US Coin Week and probably on the NGC website since all of the coins are in their holders. Otherwise, many already know about these coins and have the opportunity to find out through a source like Heritage if they do not but want to do so.

 

Speaking of Coin Week, here is the "article" submitted by DNW. More like an advertisement, as is typical of auction "articles" in this periodical.

 

Bakewell Collection of South African Coins to be Offered by Dix Noonan Webb - CoinWeek | CoinWeek

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri
Hello Everyone

 

This is probably the biggest news for South African Numismatics. The Entire Robert Bakewell Collection of coins will go on auction this year. The collection which will be defined as "The Finest Known" comprises of ZAR, Union, Decimal and Patterns both Mint State and Proofs. The collection will be auctioned as one lot with a reserve of 2.2 Million GBP (R40Mil). DNW London has been awarded the rights to market and auction this collection which will go on sale in September 2014. Robert Bakewell is well known for his desire and passion in obtaining the finest known South African coins. Some of the proof sets will certainly make ones mouth water, like the almost impossible 1926 set. Having won numerous NGC awards for his collection, this auction will certainly keep everyone on their toes in the coming months. DNW will for the first time, auction an entire collection as a single entity.

 

One thing for sure is, some of the coins in this collection will be hard to beat in terms of grade and some will be impossible to obtain.

 

So I guess anyone with R40mil lying around and wants to own the finest known, here is your chance..... :smile1:

 

 

Cheers

 

Does anyone know what non-proof 1931 silver coins are in the Bakewell collection bar the well publicized MS66 Sixpence?

 

Pierre

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jwither    10
jwither
Does anyone know what non-proof 1931 silver coins are in the Bakewell collection bar the well publicized MS66 Sixpence?

 

Pierre

 

The only one I have seen in his Registry set is the 1931 2/6 in "VF Details". I think the 6D is either an MS-64 or MS-65.

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coinoisseur    10
coinoisseur
Does anyone know what non-proof 1931 silver coins are in the Bakewell collection bar the well publicized MS66 Sixpence?

 

Pierre

 

Hi Pierre

 

I have a copy of the "Work In Progress" catalogue for the auction. There are only two silver 1931 coins in the Bakewell collection.

1931 Half Crown - VF Details - Harshly Cleaned. Cataloguer comments "Third party grade is unduly harsh"

1931 6d - MS65

 

Cheers

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri

It is strange that Robert did not complete his 1931 set in non-proofs, even in “details” condition.

 

Especially the one shilling is not that hard to get in details condition and have been offered on BidorBuy quite a few times before. Why did he not add the1/- and 2/- in details condition to his collection I would ask?

Randcoin sold the 1931 Tickey in VG-something (NOT details) a few years back for around R70 000, so even the non-proof Tickey comes up for sale now and then.

 

I posted pictures of the coins of a friend of mine a while back here on this forum (he is in his late 70s) regarding his complete (bar 3d) non-proof and ungraded silver set of 1931 coins.

 

The coins were well circulated (VG to Fine) but the question still remains if they were truly non-proofs (business strikes), or proofs that somehow got into circulation for an extended period of time – so-called impaired proofs?

 

When I asked the question regarding the difference between these circulated proofs and non-proofs (of 1931) on this forum, I think it was Ernesto who answered that after a certain period of circulation - - worn down to say VF and lower -- who can tell the difference?

 

Hell, these 1931 silver issues in non-proof condition, really intrigues me.

 

Pierre

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jwither    10
jwither

My opinion is that acquiring the 1931 in any grade just to complete the collection is probably not something that most collectors in your country would care to do, especially when the quality is so disproportionate versus the other coins as it is with the Bakewell collection. This is eqaully true of the lopsided proportion in the USA. I am in the minority on this decision apparently like you.

 

For the 1931 tickey in VG, was that coin graded or not? I recall hearing about or seeing an NGC VG-8 offerred for R70,000 several years ago. I posted here before that I did not believe this coin was worth R70,000 (then closer to $10,000 USD) and I still do not believe it is worth that now. This price is out of proportion to what all other Union coins have sold for to this date and I suspect that whoever bought it at that price, they are going to have a very difficult time getting their money back absent a significant market increase generically. Additionally, the lopsided proportion of Union VG coins are not appealing at all. They are ugly. But regardless of whether they do or not, since a disproportionate percentage of buyers are more interested in the financial aspects, the lopsided majority probably (and correcty) decided that they could (and can) do better elsewhere.

 

I believe it was in 2009 when Geejay offered an ungraded 1931 florin as VF which was rejected by NGC and prior to the "details" grading. I attempted to buy this coin but was one of the under bidders. I believe third or fourth. This coin sold for $1600+ which I think was about R11000+. I believe this coin was and is worth this price. It was quite a decent coin and there was nothing really wrong with it. I suspect that it qualifies for (and may even currently be in) an NGC VF slab with the "surface hairlines" designation. I do not recall seeing another one before or since, though I do not check the ungraded listings on BoB anymore.

 

The 1931 shilling I have seen a few times, most recently in the DNW and Baldwins auctions last year. The DNW (better of the two) I believe came back as a G-4 but I think the grade was somewhat harsh. I have seen coins that looked worse with higher grades. I attempted to win it with a low bid and failed to do so. I was more interested in others in both sales.

 

The 1931 2/6 I have only seen a few times in G or VG, ungraded. The VF in the Bakewell collection might be better, regardless that it lacks a numerical grade because its not improbable that it is actually an XF which has been "net graded". NGC does this all the time in my opinion.

 

Lastly, I was the one who made the comment that with a lower graded proof, these can be indistinguishable from a business strike. But I cannot tell you whether it is true as a VF. I was making this comment in connection with the 1931 3d VG-8.

Edited by jwither

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri

In October last year a well know collector of Union coins, (and then a frequent participant of this forum) offered his vast & really top collection to fellow collectors on his mailing list.

 

The 1931 3d (VG8) was offered at R150 000, the 1931 6d in VF20 at R45 000 and the 1931 Shilling in VF details at R15 000.

 

(His collection did not include the 2/- and 2/6- of that date)

 

I believe that the Tickey is the same one that Randcoin sold for R70 000 few years earlier but have no proof of this.

 

I have heard that the whole collection was sold, and according to the local grapevine to a single buyer who procured everything, but have truly no idea who bought it and if it really did sell, but think it did.

 

(In the same collection was a 1944 Shilling in AU55 that was offered a R18 000 which is (was) obviously a high price but a true rarity in that condition)

 

Getting back to my original point made in the previous post above, it seems like the 1931 non-proof silvers (especially the 2-Shilling and Half Crown) maybe rarer than we all think.

 

They are downright unobtainable in what some would call collectable condition.

 

Pierre

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jwither    10
jwither

If anyone bought those 1931 silver at the prices you mentioned, they are hopelessly "buried" in them. They will never get their money out of them (at current purchasing power) much less make any decent profit. As much as I would like to own these coins, I would not have paid that.

 

The 1931 3D assuming it really was/is a circulation strike and not an impaired proof is ridiculous enough but the other two are even worse, much worse. DNW, Baldwin's or both sold a 1931 VF 6D a few years ago first for 80 GBP and then later for 200 GBP. It was probably the same coin and it was ungraded. Assuming it graded, I think the coin is worth somewhat more than 200 GBP at most. You might recall that I bought a 1925 2/ PCGS VF-25 a few years ago for $431 (slightly over R4000 at the time) from Heritage. Yes, the 1931 6D I think should be worth more in the same grade but I'm not sure others agree with this opinion. Also, mine is a very nice coin for any Union VF since most of them are not attractive at all.

 

As for your comment about the rarity of these coins, I'm not sure what others believe about them. I don't think I have underestimated their scarcity since they have been the subject of my posts on numerous occasions. For whatever it's worth, here is my "guesstimate" of the survivors.

 

The 3D is either a low R-8 (unique to three) or a high R-7 (four to 12) on the US Judd scale. I consider three "confirmed"; this coin, the Mitchell coin and the one in that mint set I have mentioned before.

 

The 6d is probably a low R-5 (31 to 75) to medium R-4 (76-200). I could see in the range of 100 survivors or slightly more, though most in low (fine or lower) grades.

 

Per a prior post of mine, the shilling I think is a medium R5. Say, in the vicinity of 50 survivors with most below fine.

 

The florin I believe is between an R-7 and a medium R-6 (13 to 30). Somewhere from less than 10 to as many as 20. I believe somewhere closer to the higher number but also mostly in grades below fine. It is my #1 coin in the Union series though I presume others prefer the 3d. I consider the florin slightly more desirable in higher grades (with equal scarcity) and only somewhat less so in lower grades.

 

The half crown I believe is between a medium and low R-6. Probably between 20 and 30 survivors. If I am wrong about this one, I think it has slightly more. The mintage was higher than the 2/ and I have seen somewhat more of them, though only in grades of good or very good and maybe impaired.

 

I consider all but the 6d world class rarities in any higher grade. They are among the most desirable of 20th century coins struck for circulation. Problem is that , because of the price structure within Union, its not realistic for anyone to expect that these coins should be worth very "high prices" in low or even mid circulated grades because all other Union aren't worth much either.

 

For those who do not like this last comment, don't blame me. You are the ones who created this outcome by focusing on trivial differences in actual quality by both paying exorbitant premiums for MS and better MS coins and ignoring actual scarcity.

Edited by jwither

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri
. You might recall that I bought a 1925 2/ PCGS VF-25 a few years ago for $431 (slightly over R4000 at the time) from Heritage. Yes, the 1931 6D I think should be worth more in the same grade but I'm not sure others agree with this opinion.

 

Strange that should mention this, as I think that that 1925 2/- is now in my collection. I bought it a few yeas ago from Ewaan Galleries on BoB during the period they changed over from their previous name Bullion Vault I think it was.

 

I think I paid a pittance like R1250. I also bough the 1926 2/ in VF20 on the same day from them.

 

Here it is still sitting pretty in my collection ...

g2Sh25.jpg.dc11b92a528ff15e4b6e650aa06ab208.jpg

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