1926 1 Shilling - NGC POP REPORT ERROR

[SA COINAGE 10]

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Edited September 25, 2013 by SA COINAGE

[geejay50 10]

Hi SA Coinage,

 

The slab says 1926 2S MS64 not MS65 as you have said . This is an error that NGC will correct on resubmission. Errors are made by every grading company although less with NGC and PCGS.

 

Thanks for pointing it out.

 

Geejay

[geejay50 10]

In light of the 1926 MS NGC graded 1 shillings on auction at the moment.

 

It states that there are only 14 MS graded but I realised when browsing The Bakewell collection's slabbed photos that his 1926 1S MS65 was slabbed as a 1926 2S MS65 hence why it does not show up on the POP Report. Therefore there are actually 15 MS coins graded in total at NGC (6 being in MS).

 

 

Dear SA Coinage,

 

I have just gone into the pop report of NGC and PCGS.

 

For the 1926 1S - there have been only 2 MS coins graded by NGC (both MS62) and 2 MS coins at PCGS (63,64) not 6 as you have indicated at NGC - so four MS coins plus the one error equals five for both NGC & PCGS with the MS64 "2S" as the potential new pop1 1926 1S at NGC.

 

For the 1926 2S - there have been 2 MS coins graded by NGC (MS64,65) and 3 MS coins by PCGS (2 MS63, 1 MS64) so that becomes one less or four coins graded in MS for both NGC & PCGS. the pop one position overall is unchanged at MS65 (NGC).

 

We are dealing with ULTRA RARE coins with 6 figure values in Rands probably. One coin makes a big difference to the overall impression of rarity of this select group. We have to be very accurate with figures and I would urge Robert to have NGC fix this mistake at no cost besides transport.

 

Geejay

 

Edited August 13, 2013 by geejay50

[SA COINAGE 10]

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Edited September 25, 2013 by SA COINAGE

[jwither 17]

I think the error should be corrected, but I do not think it makes any real difference in what a prospective buyer should pay for either coin. The difference should be relatively minor because whether it is one or the other is actually completely trivial. I do not believe any one can point to any factual evidence to support that there is any "formula" to apply to what a coin with 4 versus 5 MS (or any simialr difference) should be worth or will sell for. These coins sell so infrequently any way that any actual difference in the price from one sale to the next is actually going to be attributable to changes in market conditions.

 

To put it another way, yes, what is being described here appears to make sense. However, as I explained in detail in one of my recent write-ups, Union coins could possibly sell for MORE if they were slightly more common or at least available than they actually are. The most likely reason as I stated there is that it would enable a slighly larger pool of buyers to actually obtain them.

 

If the 1926 1/ or 2/ were what I have called "celebrity" coins, then maybe it would be somewhat different. However, i do not think that anyone can make the case that either of them are. They are preferred to another KGV date such as the 1927 because they are somewhat scarcer but if you take the most recent sales of the 2/ in MS-64, the price difference was nominal. (To refresh everyone's memories, the last sale of the 1926 2/ was by Heritage at $12650 in 2011 and the 1927 by Rare Coins and Notes for I believe slightly less than $10000 last year.)

 

On the other hand, comparing the 1926 2/ to the 1925, I think the latter specimen in the Bakewell collection would sell for a lot more, as in at least twice and maybe three times, even though I do not believe it should. This is because the 1925 is at least somewhat of a "celebrity" coin. Union collectors and especially "investors" apparently have an outsized opinion on this coin's relative desirability which is NOT consistent with actual apparent scarcity, at least above very low grades.

 

The type of thinking that I am describing here, this is yet another reason why so many consistently lose money when "investing" in coins.

Edited August 14, 2013 by jwither

[Pierre_Henri 92]

1926 Shilling

 

I see that the 1926 Shilling (AU 50 NGC listed by Ewaan Galleries) sold for under R12 000 last night.

 

I was expecting a R20 000 sale but think the coin is worth more.

 

Not sure what to think at the moment? Is this the ultimate buyers market or what?

 

Pierre

[SA COINAGE 10]

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Edited September 25, 2013 by SA COINAGE

[jwither 17]

I saw both this coin and the NGC VF-20. This coin in AU is very scarce, but given what other coins in similar grades either do or are likely to sell for, I do not believe this coin is worth more than it sold for. $1100+ is a very strong price for a Union circulated coin as it is and this is a low AU grade, really an XF with an AU label because there is a big difference between AU-50 and AU-58 and many times even AU-55. I would rate AU-50 as above average (especially for this issue) but still not very high quality.

 

The VF-20 only sold for R720. Yes, I know that VF-20 is a low grade, but I do not see an AU-50 of the same issue being worth 15 times more, especially for a coin as scarce as this one.. Also, others here must have seen that a 1926 2/6 in XF-45 (NGC) failed to sell on multiple occasions for R11750. The 2/6 has about the overall same census count, fewer in better grades and is a slightly more desirable coin to most because it is a larger one...Based upon everything I state, I think that R11000 is the most this coin is worth at this time and I think the chances are equally likely that it would fetch less upon resale now as more.

 

The auction catalog for the 9/24 sale is not finalized, but DNW did have a 1926 1/ in it previously. The last time I checked, it was not there and my assumption is that they await its return from NGC. Based upon the images, I suspect it will be a mid-grade AU (like a 55). I assume it will grade since the listing indicated they would send it in, though it appeared to have quite a bit of "clutter" in the obverse fields. If this coin is an AU-55 and it sells for substantially more, then I would concur that this AU-50 sold "cheap". If not, then I 'll stick by my prior comments.

Edited August 27, 2013 by jwither

[EWAAN Galleries 11]

Seller Was Satisfied with Hammer Price

 

I saw both this coin and the NGC VF-20. This coin in AU is very scarce, but given what other coins in similar grades either do or are likely to sell for, I do not believe this coin is worth more than it sold for. $1100+ is a very strong price for a Union circulated coin as it is and this is a low AU grade, really an XF with an AU label because there is a big difference between AU-50 and AU-58 and many times even AU-55. I would rate AU-50 as above average (especially for this issue) but still not very high quality.

 

The VF-20 only sold for R720. Yes, I know that VF-20 is a low grade, but I do not see an AU-50 of the same issue being worth 15 times more, especially for a coin as scarce as this one.. Also, others here must have seen that a 1926 2/6 in XF-45 (NGC) failed to sell on multiple occasions for R11750. The 2/6 has about the overall same census count, fewer in better grades and is a slightly more desirable coin to most because it is a larger one...Based upon everything I state, I think that R11000 is the most this coin is worth at this time and I think the chances are equally likely that it would fetch less upon resale now as more.

 

The auction catalog for the 9/24 sale is not finalized, but DNW did have a 1926 1/ in it previously. The last time I checked, it was not there and my assumption is that they await its return from NGC. Based upon the images, I suspect it will be a mid-grade AU (like a 55). I assume it will grade since the listing indicated they would send it in, though it appeared to have quite a bit of "clutter" in the obverse fields. If this coin is an AU-55 and it sells for substantially more, then I would concur that this AU-50 sold "cheap". If not, then I 'll stick by my prior comments.

 

 

Hi All

 

 

Before we listed this coin on a R1 start the seller who consigned this to us wanted to sell us the coin outright at half of catalogue being R8000. We advised the seller that we should give the market a fair chance to determine the value on such a coin by listing it on a R1 Start (Our Commission Being 15% including the BOB fees so we make about 10%) and he agreed...

 

He was EXTREMELY happy with the Sale price as he got much more than R8k and has now consigned more items for us to sell for him....

 

And I say well done to the Buyer who got a bargain as If this coin was on a R1 start I would bid up to R10k immediately being a dealer :smile:.

 

This Coin Could and Can STILL Easily Be Sold OFF Bid or Buy for over R50 000 by other DEALERS or SELLERS out there.. :blink1:

 

 

 

Regards,

 

 

EWAAN Galleries

Africa's Largest Numismatic Auctioneer

RARE COINS | PERSONAL SERVICE

[jwither 17]

Hi All

 

 

Before we listed this coin on a R1 start the seller who consigned this to us wanted to sell us the coin outright at half of catalogue being R8000. We advised the seller that we should give the market a fair chance to determine the value on such a coin by listing it on a R1 Start (Our Commission Being 15% including the BOB fees so we make about 10%) and he agreed...

 

He was EXTREMELY happy with the Sale price as he got much more than R8k and has now consigned more items for us to sell for him....

 

And I say well done to the Buyer who got a bargain as If this coin was on a R1 start I would bid up to R10k immediately being a dealer :smile:.

 

This Coin Could and Can STILL Easily Be Sold OFF Bid or Buy for over R50 000 by other DEALERS or SELLERS out there.. :blink1:

 

 

 

Regards,

 

 

EWAAN Galleries

Africa's Largest Numismatic Auctioneer

RARE COINS | PERSONAL SERVICE

 

The last sale that I recall of this coin in similar grade was maybe three years ago in AU-55 (a higher grade) when the market was BETTER than now and it only sold for maybe R20,000 or slightly above it.

 

There are all kinds of coins listed on BoB for months (or maybe even years) at nonsensical prices (in other words, the fictional Hern catalog price) and I have seen none of them sell for the ask price even once. Are you trying to tell me that these other coins are regularly sold for so much more than what the same specimens are selling for on BoB? If this true, who are these ignorant buyers who are paying these prices? I would really like to know because I will gladly sell them the collection I have left at equivalently inflated prices.

 

If you cannot provide this information, then what basis is there to believe the claim you just made? For an AU-50, Outside of the 1931 half crown Which has one in the combined census, I do not believe you or anyone else can provide any reasonable basis to support that any other Union coins outside maybe the 1923 and 1924 Sovereigns are worth this price in the same grade and likely anywhere near it.

 

Aside from the half crown, none of the 1931 silver have a speciment listed in any AU grade. The 1931 NGC XF-45 Shilling, it could not sell for R95000 when it was listed a few months ago, at least when I saw it. And if it did sell off Bob later in a private sale, who knows what it would sell for if listed again in a real auction. As scarce as the 1926 1/ undeniably is in any good grade, the 1931 is more desirable yet you are trying to tell me that in roughly comporable grade (there is minimal difference between the two grades), the 1926 can easily sell for R50,000 even though the other did not sell at R95,000?

 

The fact of the matter is that there have been few Union coins in ANY grade that have recently sold for this kind of price, even though in absolute terms it is not really that high. Even taking other coins that are of comporable scarcity, the 1926 2/6 NGC XF-45 which I used as a basis of comparison in my last post, it failed to sell on multiple ocassions for R11750. It is easily as desirable as the 1926 1/ in AU-50.

[xsiandreas 11]

Hi Pierre,

 

I think it boils down to that most Union collectors prefer MS coins (Investors also feel safer in buying MS coins as the resale seems to be a lot better) even though the chances of getting this coin in MS is highly unlikely. Having said that I was wondering about this coin too. Firstly I had a look at the pictures and personally was not happy with the details on the coin hence why I did not bid more. Secondly I also think there was a slight fear seeing that this coin had no bidders 30 seconds before the auction closed. This is slightly worrying as I don't believe that most collectors might already have this coin? The usual suspects did not join this auction which is indeed strange...

 

Having said that you think this coin is worth more than R20 000 why did you stop bidding at R11 000? It does not really make sense as I know you are also busy trying to complete the silvers and you are also a dealer? Perhaps it would be better justified if you also pointed out why you felt that R11 000 was the max to bid and not R20 000? It seems by looking at the bids that R11 000 was indeed a more realistic price than the said R20 000?

 

Your response is appreciated.

 

I agree with SA Coinage. The detail on the coin is in my opinion XF40 at best, and looks over graded to me. I actually think it achieved a very good price. As always, one should buy the coin and not the holder.

[jwither 17]

I agree with SA Coinage. The detail on the coin is in my opinion XF40 at best, and looks over graded to me. I actually think it achieved a very good price. As always, one should buy the coin and not the holder.

 

I did not even look at the image that closely. But I agree that the grade is secondary to what the coin actually looks like. Always has been and always will be.

[jwither 17]

The DNW catalog is online now. It lists a 1926 shilling in NGC AU-58. This coin might sell for R50,000 but I would not consider it a "sure thing" at this time given the results of the last DNW sale.

 

There are a few other relevant comments that can be observed from the catalog:

 

For anyone who has tracked the catalog as it was in draft, there are many coins in this sale that were originally pictured as "raw" which are now graded. Many of them are among the better specimens in the NGC census with most of these MS. I can list specics for anyone if they are interested and did not track it and I will also add further commentary once the sale is over.

 

There are also still quite a few of the scarcer dates that still remain listed ungraded. This presumably indicates one of the two things. First, apparently DNW did not consider it worthwhile to submit them for grading or else they would have done so. And second, those are that described as higher quality they presumably did not believe are eligible for an MS graded under NGC's grading standards. I would not expect most (if any) of these coins to achieve strong prices.

 

Third, there is little (if any) correlation between the DNW description and those with an NGC grade. I make these comments to highlight that grading under the British (or international) system is not necessarily anymore consistent than under the Sheldon scale. Someone could (of course) claim that it is NGC (or PCGS) who is inconsistent but I can tell you that what I describe is consistent with the limited sample of coins I have bought myself. Neither appears to be more consistent than the other.