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Pierre_Henri

SA Union Coins of King George VI shine on BidorBuy ...!!

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jicol

Hi Ron

 

Thanks for the reply and further views.Of course one use a PO Box and never give out your physical address.Don't think the break-in had anything to do with the coins arriving,was just very unfortunate timing.

 

As for collectable gold coins in South Africa I think the market have been going down also in the past number of years,or at best have been static but would like to hear what others think that follow them more closely.

 

The gold price has gone up a lot the past few years and the Rand got a lot weaker so the Rand gold price have gone up even more so if you bought Kruger Rands or any other bullion gold coins you would have done very well.That however is investing and not collecting and you don't have to own physical gold to invest in the gold price.

 

Happy collecting in Germany

 

Jimmie

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Pierre_Henri
Hi Ron

 

The gold price has gone up a lot the past few years and the Rand got a lot weaker so the Rand gold price have gone up even more so if you bought Kruger Rands or any other bullion gold coins you would have done very well.That however is investing and not collecting and you don't have to own physical gold to invest in the gold price.

 

Happy collecting in Germany

 

Jimmie

 

Hi Jimmie

 

How do one invest in the gold price without owning the physical item?

 

Pierre

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jicol

Hi Pierre

 

ABSA have a product where you can buy debentures that track the gold price and sure all the other big banks have a similar product.

 

See:http://etf.absacapital.com/Products/Exchange%20Traded%20Funds/NewGold/Pages/default.aspx

 

Jimmie

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Pierre_Henri
Hi Pierre

 

ABSA have a product where you can buy debentures that track the gold price and sure all the other big banks have a similar product.

 

See:http://etf.absacapital.com/Products/Exchange%20Traded%20Funds/NewGold/Pages/default.aspx

 

Jimmie

 

Thank you Jimmie.

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alloway65

The ABSA Gold Fund is easy to trade on-line and the costs are minimal.

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Pierre_Henri
The ABSA Gold Fund is easy to trade on-line and the costs are minimal.

 

Thank you David

 

Why are people still buying physical gold if the gold fund "shares" one is buying is directly link to physical gold ?

 

Is it a waste of time owning hard core gold if you can buy it (and own it) through the ABSA gold fund?

 

Pierre

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Cold Sea

 

Thank you David

 

Why are people still buying physical gold if the gold fund "shares" one is buying is directly link to physical gold ?

 

Is it a waste of time owning hard core gold if you can buy it (and own it) through the ABSA gold fund?

 

Pierre

 

Hi Pierre, good question. It seems that owning the real thing is old fashioned "keep it under the mattress" thinking. With the proposed BRICS bank in the news, I was pleasantly surprised with the following, and I quote;

 

"South Africa ranks first out of 144 countries for the strength of its auditing and reporting standards and the efficacy of corporate boards, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. This puts it well ahead of its Brics counterparts, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In terms of the soundness of banks, South Africa comes in second (with Canada in first place), while Brazil is ranked 14, India 38 and Russia 132."

 

Well maybe you should keep one, just in case.

 

I wonder whether a numismatic fund would make sense. I can see myself owning a share in that top grade 1931 tickey.

 

Derick

 

 

 

Edited by Cold Sea

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SA COINAGE

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Edited by SA COINAGE

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jwither
I think all the 1931's sold at bargains if compare to other union and zar coins listed on bob....

 

See this:

 

Graded Coins - *#* 1933 HALF CROWN NGC SLABBED XF 40 *#* for sale in Johannesburg (ID:90163701)

 

Graded Coins - *#* 1892 FIVE SHILLING DOUBLE SHAFT NGC SLABBED AU 50 *#* for sale in Johannesburg (ID:90168032)

 

Now you be the judge!

 

Last week, DNW sold an NGC PR-66 1931 1/ for $1700 GBP or about $3200 USD with buyer's fee. This versus the recent R88000 or almost $10,000 for the PR-65.

 

There were many nice Union and ZAR coins available in this auction. Few of them brought strong prices. I assume that many here were aware of this sale but nobody said anything about it because the prices were weak.

 

In the example here, the buyer who bought the PR-65 has an undisputed financial disaster. I do not see that any informed buyer would pay anywhere near the prior price unless they do not care or are unaware of the DNW auction. However much more that PR-66 is supposedly worth, there is no explanation that I can see that can rationalize how the coin originally discussed here (the PR-65) is actually worth anywhere near the price it sold for on BoB earlier. The concurrent sales on DNW of the 1934 and even 1930 proof 1/ in PR-64 are consistent with this opinion. The 1930 I have seen maybe twice before yet it only realized about $2300.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how collectors tend to overestimate the appeal of the coins they collect to others. It's been true here since I started posting and it is equally true on the NGC Message Boards. I am not holding my breadth that this is going to change no matter how little evidence exists to support these positions.

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jicol

 

It never ceases to amaze me how collectors tend to overestimate the appeal of the coins they collect to others. It's been true here since I started posting and it is equally true on the NGC Message Boards. I am not holding my breadth that this is going to change no matter how little evidence exists to support these positions.

 

Maybe this gives a bit of an explanation

 

In an earlier article, in the February 1996 Celator titled "Is Coin Collecting a Form of Escapism?," Sayles wrote, "The danger arises when a collector loses complete touch with reality and allows the hobby to dictate all other aspects of one's life. Every dealer can name collectors who would spend the rent money to buy a coveted rarity ... who neglect their health, their families and their social responsibilities to satisfy their compulsion.... Much like drug addiction, alcoholism or gambling, chronically compulsive collecting can be devastating.... It is probably a manifestation of some disguised emotional problem."

 

From:The Psychology of collecting...... - Collectors Society Message Boards

 

Happy Easter

 

Jimmie

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jwither

Jimmie,

 

I did not read this NGC post but yes, I agree that though this is one explanation, it not a common one. I do not know but have no reason to believe that coin collectors are any more prone to the behavior you describe and what I am describing is not the exception, but the norm, even if this is an exaggerated example. Sorry to say it but I think it is undeniably true.

 

My explanation for it is a different psychological root cause which is the "herding impulse" or the tendency of most people to be crowd followers and not question what they are actually doing. If you look at other "investment" markets, it happens all the time. Most people are not aware of it, but even when they are, it takes a really disciplined person to resist it. Most cannot partly because they are overconfident in their own abilities and think they can get out before everyone else does when the bubble bursts. Just look at the performance of many stock and real estate markets all over the world since just 2000 and you can see what I am talking about.

 

With South African coins in particular, the second reason that I see is that a disproportionate number of "investors" are either not "real" collectors at all or the financial aspects are far more important to them. I suspect that many or even most who actually fit this description may not think of themselves in this manner, do not want to admit it or both. It is something I have repeatedly stated and the reason I have is because it is a behavioral characteristic which appears to be true in explaining the pricing of these coins.

 

As I said in a recent post, I suspect that a disproportionate number of the existing SA collectors (especially Union) who are spending the bigger money (however much that may be) are relatively new. I think it is a big reason why they make mistakes and I also think it is why the financial aspects are so important to them. Many or a disproportionate number of them possibly or even likely only got into collecting or at least spending a lot more money on it because of the prior boom. They saw prices rising and now that the boom is over (if only temporarily), they have lost interest or most of it.

 

For anyone who fits this profile, it is much easier to be enthusiastic when prices are only rising and you are making a "windfall". It is much more difficult to retain that enthusiasm iwhen you are losing money f you do not really like collecting that much. Or even worse, if you are losing money while using coins as a substitute among alternative forms of SPECULATION like the stock market or earning interest in a bank account. I have heard more than a few comments here which indicate that this happens more often than just the rare occasion. The fact that both the number of contributors and the posting frequency have decreased on this board as much as they have since prices declined is also an indication that this is true. If prices were much higher and rising, i can positively certifiably guarantee to you that the rampant "cheer leading" which was so prevalent on this board would return.

 

For those who fit this profile, it must be really psychologically difficult to have bought into the hype and over committed financially to these coins under the illusion that this "investment" was "low risk". Sure, eventually I expect prices to turn around but "eventually" could be a lot longer than most others expect and I would not want to be "sweating it out" by potentially having my financial future at stake subject to the whims of any collector group, especially one as small as this one.

 

Another factor I believe is that many people are just plain lazy and will not make the required effort. If you look at my prior posts, most of the analysis I have written is not a profound insight but in my opinion just common sense and primarily from observable public data. So far, I think I have been more correct than not but regardless of whether I was or not, what I have written I think is a far more prudent way to approach the financial and collectible aspects of buying these coins than what I see reflected in the pricing.

 

I am not buying many coins now and have not been for the last few years. I have my personal reasons but even if I was inclined to spend money as I did until the end of 2008, I would not have paid the boom prices anyway. I wasn't going to pay those prices because the coins were not worth it to me from both a financial and collectible perspective.

 

As an example, the amount of incremental satisfaction I get would actually be NEGATIVE from buying a "conditional rarity" like the 1946 NGC MS-63 1/ for R70,000 versus the NGC AU-55 I actually bought for R5000 . The coins I own, I still like and enjoy them as much as I ever did, even though some are worth less than what I paid. As I have said before, as a result of prices rising a lot since I started collecting in 1998, I actually enjoy buying these coins less than I did before. Eventually, yes I would like the coins to be worth a lot more but since I have no current intent to sell most of my remaining collection, it is irrelevant to me what they are worth until I do. So why exactly would I want to pay more for them now instead of less?

Edited by jwither

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jwither
Hi Pierre, good question. It seems that owning the real thing is old fashioned "keep it under the mattress" thinking. With the proposed BRICS bank in the news, I was pleasantly surprised with the following, and I quote;

 

"South Africa ranks first out of 144 countries for the strength of its auditing and reporting standards and the efficacy of corporate boards, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. This puts it well ahead of its Brics counterparts, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In terms of the soundness of banks, South Africa comes in second (with Canada in first place), while Brazil is ranked 14, India 38 and Russia 132."

 

Well maybe you should keep one, just in case.

 

I wonder whether a numismatic fund would make sense. I can see myself owning a share in that top grade 1931 tickey.

 

Derick

 

 

 

 

A numismatic fund does not make any sense. In the US, Wall Street attempted to do the same thing in the late 1980's soon after TPG was introduced. It was based upon the bogus idea that coins in TPG holders are "widgets" and can be traded like a share certificate or a commodity. This is partly true for generic coins like maybe an 1892 ZAR penny or a common as dirt US Morgan dollar, but it will never be true of a 1931 tickey.

 

The other reason it will not work is because the "market capitalization" of coins is simply too small. Even the US market which is probbaly bigger than all others combined is puny for an idea like this one. To put this in perspective, if one or a group of buyers attempted to spend even $10 million USD in any brief time period on South African coins, what exactly would they be able to buy? The answer is not much without the completely self defeating result that this "investment venture" would drive up the prices of coins artificially and result in a massive loss upon liquidation. This is exactly what happened with the funds Merrill Lynch and Kidder Peabody created in the US 25 years ago. The same outcome would probably happen with $10MM in any other market outside of the US.

 

With bank safety, as far as I am concerned, none of those countries financial systems you mentioned are "safe" and probably not a single bank either. Canada which is typically viewed as "safe", it's banks are leveraged up to their eyeballs just like all the other mega banks. As for the BRICs, not only do I NOT consider their banks "safe" (regardless of what this study says and this is without even reading it) but their political systems are unstable also. though some more than others. I mean, if China is so "safe", then why are rich Chinese rushing to get their money out of the country, sending their family's out of the country and trying to get foreign passports?

 

If anyone here has been following events in Cyprus, it should be obvious that when the "rubber meets the road" either few or no banks are safe and the same applies to most financial systems. At the moment, for those who can afford it (which is only a few), the best option available is that offerred by the SafeWealth Group. (SafeWealth's proprietary Institutional Surviverability Index or ISI would expose how unsafe the banks in that study really are.) Lacking that, most people should probably keep money in a foreign bank account (some not all), some metals and some currency notes where the politicians will have a harder time stealing it.

Edited by jwither

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Cold Sea

hi jwither,

 

I think I was trying to say that seeing the South African reporting standards are rated highest in the world, investing in a locally registered fund should give you more peace of mind than any other country. I also think you should have another look at the fundamentals of our banking system. Maybe a good foreign account would be South African. China or any other BRIC country does not come close, as is clear from the article.

 

The numismatic fund was a bit of a play. Maybe a Union coin syndicate then?

 

Derick

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jicol
This is partly true for generic coins like maybe an 1892 ZAR penny or a common as dirt US Morgan dollar, but it will never be true of a 1931 tickey.

 

Lacking that, most people should probably keep money in a foreign bank account (some not all), some metals and some currency notes where the politicians will have a harder time stealing it.

 

Maybe a "Timeshare" in a 1931 tickey or some other rarity is not a bad idea.And nobody is mentioning rental property as an investment.Have it's ups and downs but always appreciate in the long term and give an annual income too....unlike gold or investment coins.

 

Anyway we are getting miles off the subject of SA Coins of King George VI .....maybe somebody wants to start a new subject.

 

Jimmie

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jwither
hi jwither,

 

I think I was trying to say that seeing the South African reporting standards are rated highest in the world, investing in a locally registered fund should give you more peace of mind than any other country. I also think you should have another look at the fundamentals of our banking system. Maybe a good foreign account would be South African. China or any other BRIC country does not come close, as is clear from the article.

 

The numismatic fund was a bit of a play. Maybe a Union coin syndicate then?

 

Derick

 

Hi Derrick,

 

I was not criticizing your comments, so sorry if it came across that way.

 

I am not familiar with reporting standards in South Africa. But what I can tell you is that I am quite familiar with what is required to safeguard someone's money. I have read up a lot about it which is how I came to know about the SafeWealth Group. What they recommend is not perfect or "fail safe", but it is undeniably the best option I have ever heard of or encountered anywhere.

 

The premise of their philosophy is that the most important consideration is the reliability of the legal system and protection of private property rights. What good does it do you to have the best reporting standards or a safe bank if the government is unstable and the legal system will put your assets in jeopardy under duress? The answer is zero, zip, zilch and nada. I do not believe there are any (big ones anyway) in SA and there are no large ones in the US. Going by the ISI rating, no US bank of any size is rated higher than a "2" and a supposedly "rock solid" bank like JP Morgan is probably a "4".

 

The same applies to the stability of the currency. Even if I accepted the conclusion you provided (which I do not), I have no interest in ever keeping the bulk of my wealth or any significant part of it in the Rand. Maybe as a temporary speculation with a little of it, but not otherwise. The South African government does not really deserve the confidence of anyone in your country, much less anywhere else. Not anymore than is absolutely necessary. The management of the currency has been abysmal.

 

Everywhere you look, private property rights have been eroded, whether visibly or not. In Cyprus, I actually do not completely disagree with the recent bank "bail in", but it definitely was something the bank customers did not expect. In many countries including the US, aside from taxation and inflation, there are "anti-money laundering" and "asset forfeiture" laws which enable the government to steal your money without due process under certain circumstances. You have to prove you are innocent to get it back. Most people not only do not have a problem with this sort of thing, they actually support it. What I can tell you is that, when economic and financial conditions deteriorate much more as they are guaranteed to do everywhere "eventually", government's will make all kinds of excuses to either restrict access to your money or take some or all of it if it suits their interests. This is true everywhere but some are simply much worse and much more likely to do it than others.

 

On bank safety, I am going to assume that the supposed "safety" of the banks from that study is based upon some standard such as Basel II because it's the international one and also the one used (more or less) by the US Federal Reserve and ECB in their "stress tests" which are actually stressLESS tests. I consider them a farce. If anyone is relying upon this false form of assurance to safeguard their money, my advice is to think it over because there is no real safety. The liquidity requirements in those tests are only good enough in a run-of-the-mill recession or slightly worse. They will do nothing to protect you from a financial meltdown like 2008 or the worse one that I think is guaranteed to happen "eventually".

Edited by jwither

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jwither

 

Not far behind what?

 

Yes, the 1932 penny is a coin known to be very scarce and I would much rather have it in comparable quality than the 1939 2/6 which was one of the two coins originally profiled in this topic. I owned the other MS-63 BN a few years ago and sold it too cheaply but I suspect that if it had been sold in SA, it would still sell for more than this one will when the auction closes. I also would be very surprised if it sells for anywhere near what either the 1939 2/6 MS-65 or 1946 1/ MS-63 realized. But then, nothing should really surprise me when it comes to the ability of people to rationalize paying absurd prices. I see it all the time in both the US and SA.

 

Currently on the NGC Message Boards, someone started a topic where they asked if US coins were about to embark on their biggest "bull market" ever? More than a few said yes and most who committed one way or the other think that prices will also be doing better or much better "later". As usual, I was the "naysayer" and you can read the conversation in the link below if you are interested. The dynamics of the US market differ somewhat from SA, but some of the reasons I have provided on BoB are the ones I used there. I will recap the differences and similarities I see between the two markets later.

 

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever? - Collectors Society Message Boards

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SA COINAGE

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Edited by SA COINAGE

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jwither

SA Coinage,

 

I have addressed this question and topic many times. The answer to me is that collectors in SA for the most part do not care about this type of coin. It is obvious first from the prices such as this example and second from the posts on this forum.

 

I do not recall a single instance prior to yours right now where anyone else except for me and Pierre has ever commented on the better AU or lower grade coins. Not without one of us bringing it up first. Why has this happened? The only logical explanation is that collectors who participate on this forum (at the very least if not generally in your country) disproportionately do not care that much about real collecting and look at their coin collections first as "investments".

 

This is logically true because it is the best explanation for the "cheerleading" whenever some price hits a record, even when this price makes absolutely no sense at all. In the last 18 months since the prices of many coins have fallen substantially, you would think that at least someone would be happy about it because it actually makes buying these coins and completing their collections more affordable. Or at the least, provides a better opportunity to make more money later. I do not recall seeing that kind of comment except maybe once. (I believe Pierre has stated it.) Apparently, even though I doubt that more than a few SA collectors have substantial collections, the majority are so much more interested in making an immediate windfall now that they cannot take a longer term view that they could generate a better return later. This, no matter how inconsequential the total profit might be.

 

To go back to your other question, the price on the 1932 AU-55 was reasonable though you also need to keep in mind that some coins in this grade (or any grade) can differ quite a bit in their actual appearance versus others in the same or near grades. I have seen quite a few of the scarcer KGV AU coins on BoB in the last six months or so. Some are quite nice while others in my opinion are rather average or mediocre. So the prospective buyer needs to take this into account when either considering to buy the coin or in comparing prices.

 

Another thing I would add is that AU-55 is not a "low" grade, not if the coin is actually a quality AU-55. There are many AU-55 and particularly AU-58 coins where there isn't really a dime's worth of difference between them and lower grade MS. However, I know this is not the consensus with SA collectors because this heretical thinking contradicts the current pricing structure and by extension, brings into question the merit of the prices MS coins have now and with it threatens the "investments" of the collectors who own them.

 

As to whether the AU coins should be priced higher, that depends upon your point of view. They are definitely undervalued versus MS but that does not in and of itself mean they should be worth more because the obvious alternative is that the MS coins could and in some instances should sell for less, especially "conditional rarities". My opinion is that for the most part, the more expensive MS coins should sell for less or a lot less (depending upon the coin) while others like this one should probably sell for somewhat more.

 

The problem with these coins only selling for more is that I am not convinced that the existing buyers can pay more. I do not actually know this but it seems more likely given that the pricing of many MS coins has also weakened since the end of 2011.

 

The question you bring up here, it is also apparently a growing problem in the pricing of US coins. Because of the state of the economy (despite the "recovery"), people have less disposable income for everything. This has reduced the demand for the "lower end" material and increased the "slippage" when the coins are sold. But in saying this, this is still not true of a coin equivalent to a 1932 1D in AU-55.

 

Generically though, I would say that both the US and SA can "thank" the emphasis on TPG for spreading what is in some ways a cancer into the hobby. TPG has brought more money into collecting in both countries which has made the coins a lot more expensive than it used to be. Because they cost so much more in many instances, buyers are going to be less willing to treat their purchases as a potential consumption expense. If the apparent wishes that I see expressed through the sentiments here are ever fulfilled, it will practically kill the hobby altogether by turning the buying and selling of coins into "widget" trading.

Edited by jwither

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Cold Sea

Hi jwither,

 

Interesting thoughts as usual. I think these prices are indeed investor prices. Judging by the bidding, I can see this coin selling for the same price if it went back on auction next week. We know high end coins are more liquid than the lower end, so the investment seems reasonable at this time.

 

Your average collector cannot afford these prices, and the price gap between these can be explained by the disposable income factor, as you put it. It is supply and demand, with the odd slippage maybe. I don't think drawing attention to these events is cheerleading, but rather capturing the market sentiment at the time.

 

Derick

Edited by Cold Sea

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Pierre_Henri

My thoughts exactly – how can one pay £982 050 (R13.8-million) for a Trechicoff that have been described as kitsch rubbish less than a decade ago?

One never knows what goes on in the mind of a collector and I rather will not try to second guess him/her.

If you are very rich and have 1 year to live and need only one coin to complete your collection and there are actually two of you what would happen?

 

Pierre

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jwither

Hi Derick,

 

The reason I call the comments on this forum disproportionately "cheerleading" is because it is so one sided. There is no admission ever that a coin is overpriced no matter how absurd the amount happens to be. Either no one believes these coins are overpriced (something I find impossible to believe) or more likely, those who post these comments do not want to be "negative" (which is nonsense) because they are only interested in higher prices. They want higher prices even though their existing collections will not increase that much in absolute terms and even though this will effectively make it impossible for them to complete their collections.

 

If the posts here actually had any objectivity at all, don't you think that there would be a far more balanced analysis? Drawing attention to a price is one thing but if that is the real intent, why doesn't anyone ever admit what should be obvious from the data? Why is it so disproportionately (like 95% of the time at least) only drawing attention to high priced coins?

 

On the PCGS forum right now, there is a topic covering the recent sale of a 1995-W mint proof ASE PCGS PR-70 DCAM which sold for (hold on to your hat!) yes, $86,000. This "conditional rarity" has a pop of 8 with PCGS (you can ignore the NGC census count for this coin) and a mintage of "just" over 30,000, most of which probably exist in the equivalent of a PR-68 DCAM. Of the many comments there, more than a few consider the price excessive or absurd and I did not read even one that thought it was a great value, though most expressed no opinion at all.

 

Here is what I can tell you. The next time a SA coin eventually sells for an astronomical price like this one, my prediction is that the number of comments on this board which will question its price will be exactly zero. That is, aside from mine.

 

In this instance, I agree with you that if this coin (the 1932 1D) were placed for sale, it would probably sell for the same price, maybe more. But this is not remotely true of those that are the most expensive as the two recent sales of the 1931 proof 1/ demonstrates.

 

On the capacity of collectors to pay, I also agree with you that this is part of it. Part but not all. Whatever the explanation, I do not see how anyone can put a "positive spin" from a pricing standpoint from the disproportionate emphasis on higher graded coins, especially when many of them are only marginally better than a coin like this one we are discussing now.

 

In a literal sense, it is the income of the buyers. But as my prior posts have explained, there is more to it than that. It is the mindset which collectors and "investors" in SA use to rationalize that, even though these wide price variances make absolutely no sense (except selectively to some in the US), these coins at these prices are great "investments".

 

Here is my reply to that. As an example, if the 1931 NGC PR-65 1/ which sold on BoB for R88,000 about a month ago was a great "investment", then the NGC PR-66 which DNW sold for $3200 USD two weeks ago should be an even better one. Somehow, I have the sneaking suspicion that neither the buyer nor most here really believes it. Instead, most seem to believe that a higher price which in actuality magnifies the risk of loss somehow supposedly is magically translated into less risk.

Edited by jwither

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