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Pierre_Henri

Recouping NGC grading costs?

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Hello Pierre

Sorry but how much are the costs?I have about 20 coins that I need to take,but have not gotten to it yet.Thanks.

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The non-discounted fee for "World Modern" is I believe $16 to which must be added postage and insurance at least back from NGC (or PCGS). Given how common this coin is in a grade like MS-65, R55 is a very charitable price for any specimen. There is no logical reason why such a coin should sell for any more than face value.

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I am sure that many BoB sellers, who had large quantities of the R5 Mandela Birthday Coins Graded by NGC, have lost small fortunes, if one looks at the volumes of these NGC Graded coins up for sale on BoB!!!

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I am sure that many BoB sellers, who had large quantities of the R5 Mandela Birthday Coins Graded by NGC, have lost small fortunes, if one looks at the volumes of these NGC Graded coins up for sale on BoB!!!

 

Gumtree is flooded as well, NGC smiling all the way to the bank...:nuts:

Most of them are being sold at a loss, if you take into account the grading,shipping and insurance fees. EINA!

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I have a stoopid Question.

I have never sent any coins for grading to NGC or PCGS.

What i would like to know is if i do send some coins, on return do you have to pay duties on your own coins?

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I have a stoopid Question.

I have never sent any coins for grading to NGC or PCGS.

What i would like to know is if i do send some coins, on return do you have to pay duties on your own coins?

 

It all depends on the Customs Officer who inspects your package!!!!! No hard and fast rules. You do have to pay VAT.

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I am sure that many BoB sellers, who had large quantities of the R5 Mandela Birthday Coins Graded by NGC, have lost small fortunes, if one looks at the volumes of these NGC Graded coins up for sale on BoB!!!

 

What you are describing is the inevitable result of a mania and mania psychology. The only way to make money in such a situation and to KEEP IT is to get in and get out early. Most people either cannot do that or fail to do so out of pure greed and hubris every time.

 

I just checked the NGC census for this coin and the count is now up to over 133000 (yes, 133 THOUSAND). The chances that there is (or was) sufficient collector or "investor" demand to absorb such a supply at anything other than a nominal price is (and was) EXACTLY ZERO. By any measure, it is one of the most common coins in the world and "conditional" rarities such as that MS-69 which the South African Coin Company sold for $338,000 USD are (and were) LITERALLY the most overpriced coins in the world, bar none. These "investors" should ultimately lose between 95% and 99% of their "investment" before prices bottom.

 

There are a few coins in the combined census that have populations greater than this one, a few. These are selective common date US Morgan dollars such as the 1881-S. However, the distinction between a Morgan dollar and a coin like this one are these. First, the Morgan dollar is 90% silver while the Mandela coins are base metal. Second, there is an active market from both collectors and "investors" for the Morgan dollar because it is a US coin while the one for Mandela coins is either minimal or practically non-existent, just as it is for RSA coins generally.

 

I assume that Mandela coins are more widely held by collectors than RSA and maybe even other SA coins because it is a post 1994 coin and others here have said so. But most of them are undeniably either held by non-collectors as a "keepsake" or by speculators (aka, "investors") who were and almost certainly still will be left holding the bag now that this obviuos bubble has been exposed for what it always was.

 

From a financial standpoint, the problem is that the supply is so vast and the actual collector demand is so weak that there is plenty of supply available literally for everyone who is likely to be willing to pay a premium for this coin. And in addition to that, it is not like this 133000 is all that is available to grade. If the mintage is 5MM as I understand, in actuality, most of the rest are ALSO still available to be graded and likely in grades of MS-65 to MS-67 per the current census.

 

As you correctly pointed out, NGC is going to be the party who benefited the most from this delusion. They will have made the most money at absolutely zero risk.

Edited by jwither
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My Question is why don't somebody say something to all these inocent ppl who waste their life saving on these coins.

Some experienced coin collectors are well aware of this yet they continue to sell these coins to amateur collectors at insane prices.

This applies to all the mandela coins in my opinion. To me, a genuine Mandela autograph is more valuable and scarce than any coin with his face on it.Anybody can have a coin,but not all can own his signature. When he passes on,there will be many more coins minted with his face on it,but there won't be anymore signatures. Sorry for the errors,using BB9900 tonight.

Edited by ATOMICSQUIRREL
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There is no absolute answer to your question/comment because there is no accounting for the way most people think or frankly, that in many instances they do not or do not seem to think about what they are doing at all. What other explanation is there for anyone paying such an absurd and exorbitant price for the Mandela coins which are in actuality as common as a grain of sand on the beach?

 

I would also not fully agree with you that most current and prior buyers were "innocent". In any mania, most people must be acting out of greed or willful ignorance because if they were not, why would they pay these prices given all of the evidence which proves that the "investment" in question is vastly overpriced?

 

As for the sellers, whether they are taking "advantage" of potential buyers is both a matter of opinion and perspective. My opinion is that unless the seller is delivering something to the buyer which differs from what they told them, they do not owe them anything else. I mean, if you were someone who happened to own such a coin, correctly described it in a BoB listing and some buyer decides to pay a ridiculous price anyway, are you required to voluntarily sell it for less? My answer is no.

 

Now, i have seen some listings on BoB in the past where sellers made some absurd (and completely false) claims about these coins and while I would have absolutely no respect for such a person if I knew them, the buyer is still at fault because they could have verified the truth of these claims in two minutes by checking both prior prices and the census pops.

 

What you also need to consider is that reasoning with many (if not most) of these people in a mania is mostly a hopeless task. The lure of "free money" or the ability to "strike it rich" has been both the cause of losses and the ruin of millions in the past and it will be forever into the future. There are simply too many people who would prefer to believe a lie than the truth (whether with coins or otherwise) and no amount of logic is going to change their mind. That is what happened with "metal bugs" after the metals boom ended in 1980, to stocks in the early 2000's, 2007 and possbly now and to real estate "investors" in places such as the US until five years ago.

Edited by jwither
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Well said, I see your point.

If the seller provides the truth about the items they are selling, it really is up to the buyer to do the nec research on what they are about to buy and the price tag that goes with it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to google...

After that if you are still willing to pay a fortune for a coin with an est mintage of 5M and over 130000 coins graded...Good luck.

Edited by ATOMICSQUIRREL
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I see Graded R5 Mandela's are being sold on Groupon again at very high prices for "low" Grades...the Sellers sales pitch could be very compelling to the uninitiated!!!

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My Question is why don't somebody say something to all these inocent ppl who waste their life saving on these coins.

To me, a genuine Mandela autograph is more valuable and scarce than any coin with his face on it.Anybody can have a coin,but not all can own his signature.

 

After seeing so many first day covers with the Mandela signature, I am not convinced these are all for real!!! There are bound to be imitations around, as they sell for thousands!

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After seeing so many first day covers with the Mandela signature, I am not convinced these are all for real!!! There are bound to be imitations around, as they sell for thousands!

 

Oh yes I am sure there are plenty fake FDC's circulating. That is why they need to be authenticated,but I suppose even these professionals can be bought.

Edited by ATOMICSQUIRREL
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To me a machine generated signature is not a real signature.

 

I assume one can purchase such a machine and program the machine to reproduce any signature available in the public domain!!!

 

From memory when I previously looked at a selection of Mandela signatures they were all identical.

 

My signatures are "similar" but never identical.

 

I think Mr. De Klerk still signs any items he receives for his signature!!!

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Mandela's signature

 

To me a machine generated signature is not a real signature.

 

I assume one can purchase such a machine and program the machine to reproduce any signature available in the public domain!!!

 

From memory when I previously looked at a selection of Mandela signatures they were all identical.

 

My signatures are "similar" but never identical.

 

I think Mr. De Klerk still signs any items he receives for his signature!!!

 

A stamped signature is worth nothing.

 

In 99% of cases I know of, Mandela always put the date under his signature - if there is no date in his own hand writing on the envelope, the chances are almost zero that it is his signature :- also check for the ink color - if black then it is usually a stamped hand sign.

 

I worked with his grandaughter at a large short term insurance company about three years ago when she told me (then) that her grandfather does NOT sign any FDC's anymore. "Finish and Klaar". So the number of signed covers will not get more : - a good investment therefore I would think.

 

But the graded R5 Mandela coins (bar the truly TOP ones) are a BIG no-no ...

 

Pierre

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Pass the baton

 

When Pres Mandela turned 90, he announced his retirement. After that he no longer signed any memorabilia. Interesting though that he added a date when autographing.

 

What does Nelson Mandela, Abe Lincoln, John Wayne, Joe Louis and Howard Hughes have in common? They are/were all 6'4". Big boots to fill.

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Not that tall ...

 

When Pres Mandela turned 90, he announced his retirement. After that he no longer signed any memorabilia. Interesting though that he added a date when autographing.

 

What does Nelson Mandela, Abe Lincoln, John Wayne, Joe Louis and Howard Hughes have in common? They are/were all 6'4". Big boots to fill.

 

Mandela is hardly 6 " (1.83 cm) but a GIANT otherwise.

 

Pierre

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Hello all

 

Mandela did not always date.

 

Keep well and regards

 

Jacques

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But the graded R5 Mandela coins (bar the truly TOP ones) are a BIG no-no ...

 

Pierre[/color]

 

Which top graded Mandela 5R are you referring to? If it is those such as the 2008 NGC MS-69, those are even worse "investments" than those in lower grades. In a prior post above, I gave the example of the South African Coin Company specimen which they sold (according to their website) for about $338,000 USD (using the then exchange rate). Taking this claim at face value and even assuming that it was a "top pop" at the time, it would have been the absolute worst "investment" in the history of coins, bar none. Or if there is a worse one, I would like to know it.

 

The NGC census lists 11 MS-69 and 27 MS-68 at this time. And given that there are almost 20,000 MS-67, logic far better supports that none of these MS-68 or MS-69 are duplicates. The potential risk of a subsequent downgrade for anyone who might "crack" it out of the holder and send it back in for a potential upgrade is just too great that no one who has any common sense would even consider it.

 

Using this logical assumption, compared to other coins, these are common for a "conditional" rarity which makes paying the absurd prices these coins did and probably still do fetch even more ridiculous than with any or every other coin.

 

The idea that the higher grade is either usually or always the better "investment" is apparently something that most collectors and especially "investors" here seem to believe but it is demonstrably false. In this instance, to give you an idea of how absurdly overpriced these 2008 5R are or at least were, if the NGC MS-69 lost 95% of its value since the SA Coin Company sold it, valued at almost $17,000 USD it would still be the most overpriced coin on the planet. And even a loss of 99% or a current price of about $3400 would hardly make it a bargain. The same concept is going to be true of an MS-68 versus an MS-67 and probably for an MS-67 versus an MS-66.

 

Let's use the assumption that some "lucky" buyer was able to acquire an NGC MS-69 today for "only" $17,000. To put this price in perspective, last year a 1926 NGC MS-64 2/ sold for $12,650. If anyone tells me that the NGC MS-69 is the more compelling coin, my reponse is, are you serious?

 

In one of your prior posts above, you included a link to the 1630's Dutch Tulipo Mania. From what I can tell, the Mandela coin craze was the closest analogy I have ever seen to it both in scope and the extreme relative over valuation. It was a miniture national obsession. And from what I know based upon comments here, this mania is over and just like tulip prices fetch a fraction of what they did in 1636, these coins are never going to achieve their peak prices either, certainly not in real value.

 

Given how common these coins are except as "conditional" rarities, they must be owned primarily by speculators and non-collectors. And the MS-68 or MS-69, probably only by speculators. Probably, there are many people who own these coins (even graded) in large numbers, by the hundreds or maybe even by the thousands in some instances. Now that the mania is over, who exactly is going to want this vast supply at anywhere near the prior prices, whatever they were?

 

Even though these Mandela 5R are far more popular than RSA generically and even other post-1994 issues, there is almost no "investment" demand for the RSA series. From what I know, there is some for other issues but these have much smaller mintages and even then, these moderns are also relatively vastly overpriced.

 

The fact of the matter is that the coins which make the better "investment" is a combination of its current price, the trend in popularity for the series or coin and the grade. This is true of US coins, it is true of South Africa coins and it is true of any coin. In actuality, there are many LOWER GRADED coins that are better "investments" than their higher graded counterparts as the many examples I have provided here before illustrate.

Edited by jwither
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How tall is Mandela?

 

Hi Pierre,

 

He really is that tall, 1.94m - Nelson Mandela Centre of Memory – Frequently Asked Questions

 

Mandela is not close to that. Remember the picture with Francois Pienaar holding the world rugby cup above him in 1995 with Mandela clapping hands next to him? Francois is towering over Mr Mandela and even he (Francois) was "only" 1.91 meters (6.3") tall. Mandela is 6 feet at best - see here ...

 

Nelson Mandela Height - How tall is Nelson Mandela?

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People often shrink (and stoop) as they get older. Official sources all put him at about 6'4, but now well into his 90s, I wouldn't be surprised if he's lost a few inches.

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Hi Pierre,

 

Pics of Mandela next to Clinton (6'2") shows off his height better. I think I will rely on the info supplied by The Mandela Foundation.

 

I notice the link you supplied lists his profession as an actor. But we digress.

Edited by Cold Sea
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