Heritage january 2012 has opened !!!!

[geejay50 11]

Hi all,

 

The biggest sale of some of the highest calibre of SA coins has just opened for bidding.Two hundred and forty four lots are on offer and cover the period from 1874 to Modern Times. Many of these coins very seldom if ever leave collections so this is an historic event.

 

This will be an acid test of the international value of our high end coins as well as many middle of the road grades.

 

Last week as Number one of featured highlights put out by Heritage is the 1892 Proof 65 ZAR Pond (finest known). It has been punted at going for $300,000+ (R2,52 Million+)

 

Even if you cant afford it, its nice to dream that one day your nearly forgotten gem will reach retirement value !!

 

Geejay

 

 

Edited December 15, 2011 by geejay50

[EWAAN Galleries 11]

The gold natura coins have very high reserves. Anyone else notice that?

[EWAAN Galleries 11]

Hi

 

 

Amazing.... The 1939 Proof Set already sitting on $18400-00......

 

Can anyone here on the forum guess what it will fetch in the end??

[jwither 17]

Hi

 

 

Amazing.... The 1939 Proof Set already sitting on $18400-00......

 

Can anyone here on the forum guess what it will fetch in the end??

 

Bids placed prior to live bidding are not a good indication of the realized price as I presume you know. There are many coins which sell for the high internet bid and receive no live bids at all.

 

In this instance, I would expect this set to sell for more than $18,400, maybe a lot more. It is only the second full set I have ever seen for sale and it is a good one. The other was the Remick which probably includes the PR-60 grades we see in the census. It was not a good one at all from the images in the auction catalog.

 

In terms of what it "should" sell for, there are two ways to look at it. First, there are a few proof only issues and because of this, these coins are more highly valued than otherwise. Personally, since I do not consider business strikes and proofs interchangeable, I do not see any sense in this pricing (or mentality) at all, regardless of whether it is these coins or any others. As I have said many times, it is likely the primary (if not only) reason the 1931 set sells for the price is does because it certainly is not based upon its scarcity versus the other KGV proof dates.

 

Second, if the basis of comparison is a set like the 1931 which it probably is, then it should sell for somewhat less than the $48,000 that set did in a prior Heritage auction. On the other hand, if the basis of comparison is the 1938 which is only slightly more common (going by the mintages), then it will not.

 

One other thing which all of you need to consider is the current value of the ZAR versus other currencies, especially the USD and others which are the currency of reference for foreign buyers. I do not pay attention to ZAR cross rates with other currencies but the ZAR/USD rate has declined about 15% from its peak earlier this year.

 

From a practical standpoint, what this means is that either that SA buyers will have to "pay up" in ZAR terms to acquire these coins, they will be "priced out" or the coins will sell for less USD even if the ZAR price is the same as before. I expect it to be a combination of all three which will vary by coin. There are only a few Union coins in this sale, but I expect more SA buyers to be "priced out" of ZAR because that is where most of the foreign demand exists. For Union, I expect them to sell for less in USD than they would have earlier in 2011.

 

Going forward, I expect the Rand to lose A LOT OF VALUE versus the USD. Today, it is slightly less than $.12. I believe the prior low earlier this decade was around $.07 or $.08. I expect it to hit a new all-time low in the next few years. And if it does, then a lot more SA buyers are either going to be "priced out" or the coins will end up losing value in foreign currency terms.