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Bellcoin

The Coins of the Republic 1965 to date - hidden gems?

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

Zar coins and then Union, all have there top coins.

Republic has them to! Are we missing them completely?

 

I am not talking about the 60's english and afrikaans variations but those hidden gems.(or gems to be)

A good example: 1990 Third decimal series two cent coin. Proof mintage is 10239 (which is not the point) business strikes = 22469 (thats the point.) Taken in relation that is an exceptionally low mintage for a "modern" business strike. Another example(again third decimal) 1990 20c and 1991 20c. How difficult are these coins going to become obtainable in UNC in years to come?

 

So all fellow collectors - what do you think? Is there future value?

Edited by Bellcoin

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Pierre_Henri    10
Pierre_Henri

No - BAD investment I would think ....

 

A good example: 1990 Third decimal series two cent coin. Proof mintage is 10239 (which is not the point) business strikes = 22469 (thats the point.) How difficult are these coins going to become obtainable in UNC in years to come? So all fellow collectors - what do you think? Is there future value?

 

No sir, 12 230 UNC sets of that year were issued by the SA Mint - there are maybe 5000 collectors of that series currently and when all of them have a set who will buy the other 7 000 unc sets /issues?

 

Multiply that disaster-to-happen by a thousand and close your eyes ...

 

Now think about the Mandela R5 frenzy ...

 

THEN cut out the two ignorent German tourists in Cape Town who might buy a set or two and THEN think what will happen to the thousands of graded R5 pocket change coins (in capsules nogal) that will implode on itself like the "Kubus" disaster of a few decades ago ...

 

My take on this is the following: Collect ZAR and Union Coins in top grades and your grand grand children will honor your grave for the next 200 years ...

 

Pierre

Edited by Pierre_Henri

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

I tend on this to disagree.

 

I am not at all talking about "Mandela R5" (I have stated my feelings on the Mandela R5 a number of times and they have proved and are proving they are no investment)nor am I talking about now. Neither am I talking about republic coins in general. I bet the same was said about union coins some time ago. I remember, and not so long ago, union coins were relatively inexpensive, no longer in many cases. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

An example- Union pennys - not one single penny date (except 1925 for obvious reasons) comes even remotely close to the 1990 two cent piece - proof, business and mint pack included. Just an example of what I am trying to achieve in this attempted debate.

 

My thoughts are entirely long term - not a quick buck. I am simply trying to open a debate. You seem to have missed the point, already certain first decimal coins are underrated and under priced - which YOU have confirmed in auctions, and simply in the future we will have second decimal and then third. Bet my kids will collect second decimal sometime in there life!

 

After union, whats next - first decimal? What is the real value of a 1965 1 cent afrikaans???

 

Maybe I should have stated a bit better, in years to come, certain republic coins WILL be not be so easy to find in decent grade. Most can be found at the moment. History always repeats itself, always.

 

I do agree with your ZAR and Union comments completely - thankfully my ZAR collection is complete, or as complete as I want. Union - getting started. Republic - careful selection and my kids will thank me again one day! (NO Mandela R5):cheesy:

Edited by Bellcoin

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jwither    10
jwither

The simple answer to your question is and will be the coins that nobody is paying attention to today and therefore, not saving them.

 

The coins that probably most people probably first think of as "elite", I think they are overpriced or vastly overpriced at this time. By these, I am referring to the 1960's "language" coins since I would have to check my catalog to even remember which specific ones are rare. Most or even all of these coins almost certainly still exist and most still close to their original state (whatever that grade is). And on top of that, the prices I have seen for them (some realized on venues like Heritage and others "ask" on BoB) are either higher or much higher than comporably scarce or even much scarcer Union coins. And this even though RSA as a series is now and has mostly been "dead money" to my knowledge from the beginning. I consider these coins to have among the worst financial prospects compared to most Union or ZAR coins.

 

Though they are much cheaper, I do not think the prospects are necessarily that favorable for other low mintage RSA coins, though I am not in a position to know specifically which ones because I do not actively collect them and never have. Those mintages you used as examples, if most of them have been saved in MS, then likely the coin will never be worth a lot of money or not worth much for a long time. Based upon the prices of RSA generally at this time, there is almost no demand for most RSA coins. There only a few that are the exception.

 

In the US "low" mintage is actually the WORST indication of scarcity for MOST coins. The reason for this is because most collectors and even many non-collectors were aware of it when they were issued and saved them by the roll or even larger numbers. In relatively recent times, examples include the 1955 and 1958 25c and the 1955 50c. These have mintages of 3MM (yes, I know this is not "low" but it is for US coins of any recent vintage). I'm not sure exactly how many are left (and I doubt anyone else does either), but I would guess that it is possible that there are actually MORE in MS than in cirCulated grade! And they probably exist in the tens if not hundreds of thousands even in mid MS grades (MS-64 to MS-65). Going back to the 1880's, the 25c and 50c had mintages of between 5,000 and 10,000 in many years. None of those coins are rare.

 

In my opinion, I think that some earlier RSA coins might be good values, but that they only have real potential as "conditional" rarities or near it. To give an example, I bought a 1976 PCGS MS-66 50c for all of $13 which is LESS than the grading fee. I don't know how many there are like it, but probably not too many, at least proportionateLy. I do not expect it to be worth a lot of money anytime soon (maybe "never") but at this price, I think it is a bargain even if just added to a collection and ignoring financial considerations altogether.

 

But in using this example, I do not believe that simply because a coin is in MS is going to make any difference at all, at least most of the time. That almost certainly will be true given the likely availability of most of these coins and the grades in which they are available.

 

Even though it is likely than in absolute terms these coins are scarcer or much scarcer than most US circulating "moderns", zero US moderns sell for more than the grading fee to my knwoldege as a generic date in MS. It is only in "higher" MS grades or as "conditional" rarities where these coins have any premium worth considering at all. (There are some US moderns that sell for big premiums as scarcer or rare die varieties, but these are the exception.)

 

I expect that this will likely be true with RSA coins also. The simple reason for this is that, just as in the US, I do not see most SA collectors being willing to pay "high" prices when they can use the same money or near it to buy Union or possibly the common ZAR. And this will be especially true for mid-grade MS (probably up to MS-65) because it is only specialists who are dedicated enough to prefer these coins over others which the lopsided majority of collectors consider superior or vastly superior. In the US, there are far more collectors of US moderns than any others, but most of them are either casual collectors or do so out of economic necessity. Given the low prices of US circulating "moderns, the lopsided majority of collectors must shift their focus to others as soon their budget allows them to do so.

Edited by jwither

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kimbo11    10
kimbo11

@jwither

 

"1960's "language" coins" .. please explain to a newbi

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jwither    10
jwither
Look at the below link:

Uncirculated Coins - PCGS 1965 Afrikaans 50c MS66 for sale in Johannesburg (ID:47491748)Yes I overpriced it, and I know that no one will buy it; but I don't want to sell it for any less. Mintage +-1100? How many graded by NGC & PCGS? :)

 

I do not know what this coin or others like it sell for at this time. And to answer the second question, I am calling "language" coins those where the majority were struck in English and a small number in Afrikaans, or vice versa.

 

As for how many have been graded, I think you are asking the wrong question. I consider it the wrong question because it seems to imply that the census is mostly complete when I do not believe there is any reason to reach that conclusion based upon what is known from coin collecting today. And this is either in South Africa or in the United States.

 

If my statement is actually not correct, the best evidence of it to me would if collectors see these coins in circulated grades more often than not. Or, if there is any substantiated evidence that a disproportionate number of these coins were melted. Is there any evidence of either?

 

If the answer is "no" as I suspect, then likely, mosr of these coins exist and mostly in their orginal state. As I explained in my last post, that is the norm in the United States for coins like this and likely, it is the norm in most countries where there was established coin collecting at the time the coins were issued. Not always, but more often than not or usually.

 

And remember, another thing working against the scarcity of these coins. In 1965, 50c was actually worth something so it is not like they would have circulated as much as a lower value denomination either. This is typical of higher face value coins everywhere for which I can give you any number of examples.

 

Absent specific evidence to the contrary, it is more reasonable to assume that most of these coins exist and more often than not, in at least mid-MS grades. If this is correct, then probably 95% still exist and of these, maybe 80% in MS and from that, maybe a further 50% or more in grades like MS-64 or better. These specifics are a guess of course, but regardless if the actual number differs, then this means that these coins are really not actually scarce at all as "investment" material.

 

I can arrive at this conclusion by comparing these guesstimate survival and attrition rates to those for better grade Union and ZAR. I believe that most of these coins are not quite as scarce as most here believe, but only a few are likely to have as many "high" grade survivors as my example.

 

And even if the actual number is much less, given the popularity of RSA which is very low, I do not see that a coiin like this one deserves to sell for a particularly strong price. In my opinion, maybe if this coin you have has as few as 20 or 30, then it would be worth that kind of money, but not otherwise. Just compare it to the price of KGV proofs with the similar mintages and you can see what I am talking about.

 

Since I do not look for them, I cannot tell you how often they become available for sale. Based upon what I know, I admit that the availability for sale does not seem to equate to what I am describing. If the actual availability is much less than the mintage records indicate, then maybe the mintage records were wrong? I doubt it but if not many come up for sale, I cannot explain it. But however many there actually are, I would not assume that the census is mostly complete because I do not believe there is such evidence for most SA coins.

Edited by jwither

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

My thoughts on actually starting this thread was simple things that stuck me as unusual, RSA mintage figures on certain coins seem not to make sense. (Or make make sense to me).

 

Is there a potential for certain RSA coins in the distant future - yes I think so. Currently - no I do not think so. And this includes both first, second and third decimal.

 

By no small measure invest in Union and ZAR, the benefits should be and are obvious to see. But as noted by jwither - very true, not everyone can afford ZAR. A union collection is at the same time becoming expensive in real terms. That leaves Republic - and yes they are in certain circumstances easy to find. Without a doubt however I feel that certain coins are in TIME are going to become difficult to find in certain grades.

 

I am personally attempting to complete a first decimal set - UNC - all variations - and at this time its not too difficult but also not to easy. (my amusement only)

 

Lastly - RSA coins in general would take decades to reach some sort rarity - but hey is the fun not collecting?? or must a monetary future value be attached to everything coin?

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jwither    10
jwither

To your last point, from both a collectible and financial standpoint, I believe that increased interest in RSA is going to be necessary to expand the collector base in SA. I do not know how many collectors in SA pursue RSA coins. I suspect it is very low and to the extent that they do, that it is for more recent issues such as the (somewhat) lower mintage proof coins. Like those I have called the "language" coins, I consider these exorbitantly expensive and do not think much at all of their future financial prospects.

 

If you read other posts here regularly, you will see the implied or sometimes explicit price forecasts for both Union and ZAR. As I have repeatedly stated, while nothing is impossible, I see no reason to believe that these expectations make any sense at all. A price structure which prices out the majority of collectors out of most or a substantial minority of coins does not exist anywhere else to my knowledge and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that it should exist in South Africa either.

 

If there actually was or will be a substantial base of collectors across the RSA series, that would improve the odds of these price expectations substantially. The reason for this is that in large numismatic markets such as the United States, that is how most people get started. It is like a funnel. What I see in South Africa is not the complete opposite but about as close to it as I can see anywhere.

 

Collectors generally start with much cheaper coins and then work their up to those that are more expensive, generally as they get older and their income increases. In South Africa from what I can see, a disproportionate number of "investors" go right to the more expensive coins. In the past, that did not matter much because both ZAR and Union were so cheap but that is not remotely true anymore for many coins. If that is how the typical SA collector is going to buy their coins, then I do not see that most are even going to be interested in collecting in your country at all. Given the price forecasts implied on this forum, in the future, almost no one will be able to afford to buy any of the nicer coins in any quantity at all.

 

For anyone who is considering RSA coins for collecting or "investment", if you look at the United States, there are four specialties in modern circulating coinage that contain premiums that are noticeable: "conditional" rarities (or a few grades below) primarily by registry set collectors, toned and "rainbow" toned coins, die varieties and error coins. That is where the money is. Because the coins as generic dates are so common, none of the others have any premiums worth considering.

 

If South Africa continues to follow in the footsteps of the United States in terms of its collecting practices, that is where the money is likely to be in RSA also. The one exception will be as you state. Because the mintages are so much lower and likely because most are ignoring these coins, it is possible or even likely that some of these coins are going to be much scarcer than most believe.

 

But scarce is still only going to be in a relative sense because the chances of any of these coins becoming absolutely scarce (much less rare) in the foreseeable future are very remote. This is no different than in many other countries where some "moderns" are actually fairly scarce.

 

If anyone wants to find out which these are, the only way I see to do it is exactly as you stated. Go out and try to find them and see how hard they are to find. My guess is that you are likely to be surprised by what you see, if there is anything to find out at all.

Edited by jwither

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

Absolutely perfect reply!

 

I am not punting collection for gain here at all but for the sake of collecting coins.

 

I completely understand the investment value of Union and ZAR - but is coin collecting not only a hobby?

 

Thank again for the valued input - its JUST what I was hoping for and hope there might be a few more comments?

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jwither    10
jwither

If you go forward with your search, I would be interested in your results. I would imagine that you are one of the few who will or has done any type of investigation to determine how available these coins are. Probably, it is because most assume that they are and will always be available. And in my case, do not consider them particularly artistically appealing either.

 

The only issues I have owned are a few of the silver Van Reebek and those from the early 70's. Since I lived in SA from 1972-1974, I would like to buy the best quality proof and mint sets I can find for those years. And to me, "best" means CAM or DCAM and RD proof, not just the grade. I have the 1974 like this up to the 50c at a cost of about $200.

 

The Van Reebek I do not consider particularly scarce, I have a small hoard of the 1964 silver except for the 50c and I have seen them quite a bit even without looking for them. I'm not sure what grades they are usually found but I would guess mine are probably no worse than an MS-64.

 

One group of coins that I think may be somewhat scarcer than many might believe are MS RD bronze. I have seen them for Van Reebek but do not recall any others.

 

As for your hobby question, in my opinion, the answer to it in South Africa is a disproportionate no if this forum is representative of collecting in your country generally. Obviously, given the sums involved in some instances, I do not expect others to view their collection as an alternate form of consumption. But I do not believe that collecting is more important to most on this forum than the financial aspects. Because if it was, then I would not read the commentary that I see.

 

When I originally resumed collecting in 1998, I never intended to view my collection as a profit center. I still do not even though I am not collecting coins to lose any substantial money either. It just happened that I was able to make a good profit with my SA coins but now I am less willing to buy them and I am making no attempt to complete my collection because of the recent price increases. To the contrary, that is why I sold most of them.

 

It is entirely possible that I sold too early but here is what I can tell you. If a disproportionate percentage of current owners actually are more interested in the financial as opposed to the collecting aspects, that is a big negative for price stability. It is a big negative because those who are primarily "investors" are almost certainly more fickle and far more likely sellers when prices stop rising and fall for any extended period of time which they will at some point in the future. That is exactly what must happen in the United States with certain coins which is why prices decline substantially on occassion.

 

In my opinion, coins are combination hobby and "investment". Viewed in their primary context as a collectible, they can be both financially rewarding and fun. Yes, it was nice that I sold my SA coins at a profit, but I enjoy collecting them much less now because my money cannot buy anywhere near the same items as it could before and I do not think they represent good relative value versus my other series anymore either, not anywhere near it.

Edited by jwither

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

So far

 

I have spent a week solid searching:

 

The issue coins are 1965 and 1966. Certain are available a "dime a dozen" BUT certain NOT so easy and honestly cost a lot more than I originally thought. I have however found that it is possible to collect a complete set UNC in 1966, both english and afrikaans. Took some creative searching, but yes its possible. 1965 however has presented a couple of problem coins. The problem being un-circulated coins. Many well worn and low grade available. Herns states that it is impossible to collect a 1965 UNC set, so far I do not think that it is impossible its going to be difficult.

 

I do however agree that they really are not the most attractive issue! But somehow a struggle to find them is rewarding once found.

 

One more thing - the MS RD - that could be interesting? Never thought of that - well searching I go again?

 

More to follow.

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jwither    10
jwither

Are you looking for these on BoB? In circulation or with banks? Or buying them from dealers?

 

I would not expect that you will find too many (if any) UNC from 1965 or 1966 in circulation. I never check my change of US coins (and do not use coins often either) but do not recall seeing any of those dates at all. Not just now, but for as long as I can remember.

 

I do not have my Hern guide with me, but the only sets that I recall him stating were impossible to complete were for those which did not have any coins minted. For example, since there is no 1925 farthing, penny or shilling a full set is not possible IF the definition of a full set includes all denominations.

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

Herns does actually state that it is impossible to collect an uncirculated set for 1965. I have found few on BOB and have purchased a few, the balance that I have bought come from Australia, Greece???, UK, Netherlands. What I have found is SA coins can be found far and wide. (I have bought ZAR coins in the oddest places eg: Poland.

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Bellcoin    10
Bellcoin

Hi all

 

Just a quick one:

 

The 1965 series IS NOT a simple series to complete. The one cent Afrikaans is obtainable but price wise, surprise surprise, the price. In the auctions and sales I have looked up and compared it is about equal terms to a 1892 zar penny MS64 ( this assumption is based on the sales I have been able to track) And in one instance this was for an ungraded one cent. The 1965 english again seems to reach the price - if I may compare this way again - 1898 ZAR penny MS64.

 

The two cent both english and afrikaans - can be bought for a couple of rand - same goes to the five , ten cent and twenty cent. The 50 cent pieces can be found. The R1 english can be found in UNC. Next coin Afrikaans R1 - have noted the following prices: R25 000.00, R20 000.00 and R30 000.00.

 

I can only base this assumption on 1965. I have started looking at 1966 and will see what happens from there.

 

In the past three weeks I have obtained the following for my collection - all UNC - one cent afrikaans, one cent english. two cent afrikaans, two cent english, 5, 10,20 and 50 cent all in UNC. English R1 UNC BUT missing a 1965 R1 afrikaans. I have started 1966 which off the top seems easy except again - there are a couple difficult ones.

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Nickel and Dime    10
Nickel and Dime

I NEED an Eng 1965 circulation R1, PLEASE. If anyone can help, I would really appreciate it! I've only ever seen 1 (on auction).

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Robdon    10
Robdon

Hi There, do have any opinion on the Prf 1 rand English. In Herns it says that some were minted, do you agree?

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