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Pierre_Henri

The Coin Market is Suffering at the Moment ...

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Pierre_Henri    14
Pierre_Henri

The reality of tough economic times is showing its ugly head in the numismatic market with prices falling noticeably over the past few months.

 

The good news is that bullion prices are reaching new heights as the days ticks by.

 

My heart truly goes out to those that still stubbornly invest in Mandela this-and-that R5 coins and the like – some ultra finger burning awaits many...

 

Only true rarities will survive the storm – put your money where the really scarce ones lie. The worse it gets, the better the opportunities.

 

Pierre

Edited by Pierre_Henri

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barbaro    10
barbaro

I only ever bought one mandela R5 coin about 10 years ago for R30, it was the one in the CD case. I saw someone recently had one here on BoB and there was a bid for R1400 for it. I have to agree thought that currently the circulation Mandela coins are not worht investing in, i believe they will be worth a little more once he is gone though.

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jwither    10
jwither
The reality of tough economic times is showing its ugly head in the numismatic market with prices falling noticeably over the past few months.

 

The good news is that bullion prices are reaching new heights as the days ticks by.

 

My heart truly goes out to those that still stubbornly invest in Mandela this-and-that R5 coins and the like – some ultra finger burning awaits many...

 

Only true rarities will survive the storm – put your money where the really scarce ones lie. The worse it gets, the better the opportunities.

 

Pierre

 

I would be interested to hear more specifics from you. I have not been an active buyer of any coins for about 18 months and have been liquidating most of my better South Africa coins to exchange for gold during that time, especially in 2010. Because I do not live in South Africa, I was never an active buyer on BoB, so the prices I paid and sold for were lower on both ends.

 

Judging by some of the comments I have read here in the past and ask prices for some coins I have seen on BoB, the best reason to explain why prices are lower (whether significantly or not) is that some, many or most prices before never reflected what the coins were "really worth" to start.

 

I have commented on this many times. The prime examples include conditional rarities and MS coins selling for substantial premiums versus their slightly better grade AU counterparts where the coin is actually scarce. I also suspect that more than a few collectors bought higher graded (as reflected in the census) MS coins that they THOUGHT were scarce under the false belief that the census was mostly complete when in actuality, there is and never was any reason to believe that at all. One example of that would be the 1943 shilling in MS-64. I sold two of them early last year for $300 USD each in private sales. I believe that mine were the only ones in that grade (or maybe there was one more) while now there are nine with one MS-65. And I doubt that any of them are duplicates either given that resubmitting such a coin would be a waste of money. I do not know what this coin sells for now, but I do not believe it is worth what I sold it for and definitely would not be a buyer at that price or anywhere near it. (In the interest of full disclosure, I have also sold some coins for prices that in retrospect were lower than necessary.)

 

I also believe that there will come a time to pick up some actual bargains in South African coinage, but I do not believe the time is now. Not now at least for most coins. I still believe that the primary bargains today exist with AU-55 or AU-58 issues such as KGV 2/ and 2/6, But these are not "investment" coins at all which is why most potential buyers are not interested in them. If I turn out to be wrong, I will simply go buy something else.

Edited by jwither

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Guest Guest   
Guest Guest

???

 

John says

 

I would be interested to hear more specifics from you. I have not been an active buyer of any coins for about 18 months and have been liquidating most of my better South Africa coins to exchange for gold during that time, especially in 2010. Because I do not live in South Africa, I was never an active buyer on BoB, so the prices I paid and sold for were lower on both ends.
Perhaps John you can then explain why you bought gold when, in 2010, you predicted a collapse in silver (and, by default, gold) to below US$10 per ounce in the thread ON THE CUSP? Your argument then was that DEFLATION would crush their prices.

 

Kind regards

 

Scott Balson

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Lateral thinking

 

Hi Pierre

 

I think there could be a new age "Dr Frank Mitchell" out there understanding one basic principle.

 

The law of supply and demand.

 

What I am talking about is a shift in thinking about what is "numismatically valuable and relevant" in post-1994 South Africa.

 

Just like societies evolve, so do the supply and demand for any rare item we feel at any particular time to be "valuable".

 

Often we are so tied up establishing the best we can in our hobby "as an investment" we do not realise that the market has moved on.

 

You would know the contempt I hold for Wall Street but one thing they do do well is sniff out where the "next dollar" is to be made. I am the first to say this is the antithesis of pure numismatics but it is also the financial reality that makes our hobby a good investment.

 

When we talk about the coin market in South Africa today we are currently talking about a market that is in a twilight zone because the focus of a new generation of collectors will not be on Union or ZAR but Mandela and post-1994 pieces. The S A Mint recognised this reality in their recent conference publicised here on BoB.

 

I have always advocated the importance of the early trade tokens in our numismatic history and (as a result) faced a fair amount of flack. My views have not changed and I am convinced that the tokens that were embraced by the indigenous population back in the 1800s .. yes East Griqualand comes to mind will be the Veld Ponds of the future once this new generation of collectors recognise their relevance to their ancestors.

 

Its the simple law of supply and demand.

 

Kind regards

 

Scott Balson

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Rare NotesCoins    11
Rare NotesCoins

Is that why you deleted yor Durban tokens?

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Durban Club tokens

 

Hi,

 

As mentioned earlier today in another thread they were not deleted by me - they did not sell.

 

In fact Mark picked up the bargain of the year with my carzy R1 start - getting the unique Pattern Durban Club 6d for under R1,000. Well done Mark!

 

The Durban Club tokens were clearly not aimed at the indigenous population so fall outside my prediction as a set that will "explode in value" in years to come. I was surprised by the lack of buyers in the Durban Club pieces but will now hold them and not sell them.

 

As in any transaction I, as the seller, have that right.

 

Kind regards

 

Scott Balson

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jwither    10
jwither
John says

 

Perhaps John you can then explain why you bought gold when, in 2010, you predicted a collapse in silver (and, by default, gold) to below US$10 per ounce in the thread ON THE CUSP? Your argument then was that DEFLATION would crush their prices.

 

Kind regards

 

Scott Balson

 

Nice try. I have already answered your question on your thread, "On the Cusp". Yes, I have expected gold to fall in price along with silver. And yes, I also REPEATEDLY said that people should own it anyway which is why I bought it. I bought it because I agree with you that it is real money and everyone should own some of either or both. That is exactly what I said and why I did as I did. Got it? Go back and read my posts to correct your selective memory.

 

As I told you before, unfortunately for people like you, the fact that this forecast of mine did not turn out correct has not prevented me from profiting anyway. I made gains on my SA coin sales and trades comporable to any that most made on silver if they listened to you. And yes, I can prove it. And I also bought the CHF last year and have made a good gain on that as well.

 

The fact that this particular forecast did not prove correct means that yes, that I can be wrong. But I do not limit myself to owning or trading one particular asset or market.

Edited by jwither

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qball    11
qball

Gentleman - argue the post not the poster... I won't ask nicely again... :twisted:

 

Thank you.

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Nickel and Dime    10
Nickel and Dime

Hi*5 Morne!!!

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geejay50    10
geejay50
Hi Pierre

 

When we talk about the coin market in South Africa today we are currently talking about a market that is in a twilight zone because the focus of a new generation of collectors will not be on Union or ZAR but Mandela and post-1994 pieces. The S A Mint recognised this reality in their recent conference publicised here on BoB.

 

I have always advocated the importance of the early trade tokens in our numismatic history and (as a result) faced a fair amount of flack. My views have not changed and I am convinced that the tokens that were embraced by the indigenous population back in the 1800s .. yes East Griqualand comes to mind will be the Veld Ponds of the future once this new generation of collectors recognise their relevance to their ancestors.

 

Hi Scott,

 

I am glad you dont group your S & Co Tokens along with the ZAR & Union Coins that are in your opinion part of a twilight zone of South African Numismatics. Very convenient that what you have in Tokens doesnt have a bad future and fits in with your indigenous coin theme and the current SA Mint outlook you think. Even if the ZAR market is a bit down at the moment for commoner grades and issues, if you look at what is for sale on Heritage at the moment, that is top quality ZAR and is where the high prices will be fetched.Unfortunately there isnt a Token in that category.

 

Geejay

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qball    11
qball

Right gentleman... topic closed.

 

Debate and constructive conversation is always welcome on the forum. Personal and confrontational posts are not permitted.

 

Sorry...

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