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geejay50

Scarce Coin Watch

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jwither

Scott,

 

Thanks for the "heads up". I will check the listings out.

 

Geejay,

 

My comments were generic to KGVI as an issue and not specifically to the 1947 2/6. I have never owned this coin as a circulation strike.

 

The price you obtained for that MS-63 in my opinion was a very good one. I would not pay anywhere near it which at current market levels, is a reason I will likely not own one. Since Heritage sold a 1944 2/6 NGC MS-66 for (I believe) $1400 plus buyer's fee relatively recently (within the last few years), I would guess that the Bakewell 1947 would sell for $3000 or maybe even more or a lot more under approximately equal market conditions.

 

$3000 is a relatively modest premium by today's standards but by my equally strict standards, there are other better alternatives for the same money. Scott mentioned the Spanish colonial coinage. A few years ago, a 1761 Peru NGC MS-65 2 reales sold for $2990 (with buyer's premium). I would far prefer to own a coin like that, or even a lower MS grade(for the few that exist) for a fraction of that price.

 

On another note, an 1888 OFS "pattern" 1D PCGS SP-63 closed on eBay for $1136 yesterday. I do not recall the variety but the price seems to be a lot lower than what I thought these coins used to sell for which was in the vicinity of $1500 to $2000. Except for a few of them such as the ones made in nickel, I do not consider most of these "patterns" to be scarce at all. They are popular but I would rather buy the 1947 2/6 in MS than any of them..

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Pierre_Henri

Times are Tough ...

 

On another note, an 1888 OFS "pattern" 1D PCGS SP-63 closed on eBay for $1136 yesterday. I do not recall the variety but the price seems to be a lot lower than what I thought these coins used to sell for which was in the vicinity of $1500 to $2000. Except for a few of them such as the ones made in nickel, I do not consider most of these "patterns" to be scarce at all.

 

Here are a examples of few prices realized for these and similar "patterns" on Bid-or-Buy over the last say 18 months ...

 

1890 (No Date) Griquatown Pattern Penny NGC Graded MS61 BN - Mintage: 50 = R18,100.00

1889 Cape of Good Hope Pattern Penny Graded MS63BN by NGC = R9,101.00

1890 Griquatown Pattern Penny NGC Graded PF62 BN = R15,100.00

1888 OFS Pattern Penny NGC MS63 BN = R7,000.00

So the 1888 OFS pattern 1D PCGS SP-63 you mention selling at $1136 yesterday was realistic: - I remember these selling for about R18 000 (you quote $1500 to $2000) about 4 or 5 years ago.

Times are tough ...

Pierre

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jwither

I would have to check Heritage for exact prices but that is what I remember and this would be for a specimen of average quality. I was using these coins as examples of issues that are NOT SCARCE except as die varieties even though many or most collectors think that they are.

 

To give you some context on their scarcity, let's evaluate them using the US Judd rarity scale. This scale is taken from the "Handbook of US Pattern, Trial and Experimental Pieces" written by Dr Hewitt Judd and Abe Kosoff. Mine is an older version but the most recent one should list all of the slightly over 2000 different issues. The scale ranges from one to eight.

 

I'm not sure what the collecting practices are for these coins but I am going to guess (and that is all that it is) that to most collectors, the different die varieties are interchangeable because the designs look exactly the same. I would expect that there are few collectors who are trying to buy all of them by die variety. Yes, I know that all of them are not equally scarce and some (such as the 1888 OFS penny in nickel) sell for much more than others, but most collectors are not trying to buy these anyway.

 

Using this assumption, each of them have mintages over 100 since Hern lists the most common variety at 100. I'm not sure what the survival rate is but I would expect that for most of them, it would be at least 80%. As for the grades, I am going to guess that a "63" is about average or if not, slightly below it.

 

If this is also a reasonable assumption, then using the Judd scale, these "patterns" are a high rarity-4 being in the range of 75 to 200. And if not, then at most a low rarity-5 (between 31 and 75). (The aforementioned 1888 OFS nickel penny is a medium rarity-6, between 12 and 30.) For a pattern, a rarity 4 or 5 is not rare at all. Granted, there are a lot more US issues than these, and that is the only explanation for why they even sell for the current prices they fetch.

 

(The same applies for a coin such as the 1898 Sammy Marks tickey. The estimates I have seen are 30 out of the original 215 mintage. However, I'm not sure if this is all of them or those that are undamaged. In any event, for a "pattern", 30 is really not that rare either and this coin sells for an exorbitant price given it's actual scarcity. For a variety of reasons I can list, I believe this coin deserves to sell for a very strong price, but nowhere near what it sells for now.)

 

Now let's compare them to proofs which should have approximately equal survival rates because neither of them were intended to circulate. Union proofs might have a slightly higher survival rate because they are more recent but that should be it.

 

Taking KGV and KGVI proofs, the 1937-1946 are about equally scarce but especially until recently, they were vastly cheaper though the prices have closed somewhat apparently. Because these "patterns' are collected along with ZAR and look different, I would say that yes, they deserve to sell for more than these proofs (in approximately equal grade), but not substantially so. Personally, I would rather own the 1937 or 1943 at today's prices. (At one point, the entire 1943 set cost about the same as one of these coins, a ridiculous price difference.) While the survival rate might be slightly higher, I have seen them for sale much less often and for the 1943, do not recall seeing any that I would even really want to buy. Some are listed in the census but those I have seen have been of poor quality.

 

Given the combination of the factors I just described, I consider even current prices for these "pattern" pennies to be more than generous. To the extent that my assumptions are not correct, then I can address this in a subsequent reply.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

IN SEARCH OF GOOD VOC COPPER

 

Hello all collectors of VOC coinage,

 

This is an era mentioned by Engelbrecht in his book along with photographs . We must not forget that coinage did not just start with ZAR in 1874.

We have a rich and varied number of coins prior to that date that circulated in the expanding Cape and beyond from 1652 onwards. The VOC and the succeding Batavian Republic had coins in the 1700s & early 1800s minted back in Holland to facilitate trade in the Cape and the East. They were made from copper and silver and came in a bewildering variety of Duits (Copper and Silver) , Half Duits, Stuiwers and Guldens with fractions thereof from One Gulden (Silver) down to 1/32G (Copper).

 

We cannot ignore the impact that the VOC had on our early history - even the makers of Brandy have acknowledged that !!!

 

I have tried to get reasonable representatives of these coins without trying to get them all (that is just too much) but its been my experience that the hardest of this group to find in decent condition has beeen the smallest and supposedly cheapest of them all - the Copper Duit and Half Duit.

In the last few weeks, an AU58 VOC Duit from 1755 was sold by Northeast Numismatics for $325.

 

NGC has very few Copper Duits graded, despite being quite common in raw form but always corroded . Its been quite a battle and I dont have one graded VOC Duit or Half Duit in my collection and only one NGC MS62 Batavian Republic 1805 Half Duit (the only one graded KM#75)

 

I recently took a chance with an overseas auction on a lot of 22 Netherlands East Indies coins in the hope of getting lucky. Well most of the coins were typically nackered but there were three that were exceptions:

 

A copper Duit from 1790 (VF+) , a copper half Duit from 1793 (VF) and a copper 1805 One 32G or half Duit from the Batavian Republic (Holland under Napoleon). The last coin is really amazing and the striking is delightfully rough with blobs of metal evident on the smooth unmilled edge on a planchet that bent in the process (see pics) . I am quite excited about this coin. Mintage of this issue which was made between 1802 and 1809 - just 156,000. It has escaped the corrosion that is the rule and is actually lustrous !!

 

I am begining to realise why we cannot find many decent Griqua Copper Coins either.

 

Geejay

58f5a726c1c10_1805BatavianRepamp117.jpg.2c628b182feb65af472c9e262b378864.jpg

58f5a726c6307_1805BatavianRepamp117.jpg.0d51d594c83561b80b454a9d1ef8e581.jpg

58f5a726ca7e5_1793HalfduitObvamp46.jpg.b552fc063f02c21ae03c7673ae645afa.jpg

58f5a726cf304_1793HalfduitRevamp4.jpg.8f94d6cfcaefe0108c6739b9cbb328b8.jpg

58f5a726d3b4d_1790DuitVOCRev..jpg.c967f3fdd734585e0e2fefb96245fbaf.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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geejay50

Hello again,

 

The Batavian Half Duit issue up to 1809, goes on for three years longer than the existence of the Batavian Republic (1799-1806) and believe it or not, the VOC Duit from 1790 was actually struck in 1827,1834 and 1835 !!! long after the demise of the VOC (see CD form of Krause111.2).

Holland could not easily say good-bye to that huge multinational company that for two centuries had colonised and explored a huge chunk of the world .

 

We normally consider dates on coins to be reflective of the dates minted as shown but here is an exception.

 

Regards

 

Geejay

58f5a726d81b3_1790DuitVOCObv..jpg.1b8a2dfea4b306672ac2097517379969.jpg

58f5a726dc9a9_1790DuitVOCRev..jpg.12d3b5cfa273b5279d8d86800c275cb4.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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Pierre_Henri

There is a shipwreck laying on the coast of southern Namibia whose name's been lost over time. But to this day, at low water, when one ventures chest deep into the sea, some VOC doits still pops up under your feet.

 

They are all dated 1790

 

I however, did not know that they were struck a decade or three later. The shipwreck must then date from say the late 1830s or even later?

 

Very fascinating stuff.

 

Pierre

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jwither

Geejay,

 

I am not familiar with these coins but if you want one, you should contact a dealer such as Jean Elsier. He is located in Belgium. He carries a decent stock of European coinage and has four auctions (at least) per year. I would expect that he should be able to find one for you if anyone can.

 

The only continental European coins I own are Spanish silver from the 1600's and 1700's and the 1790 Austrian Netherlands Insurrection. In my limited experience from informal observations, its my opinion that most European coinage from the 18th century (at least late 18th anyway) is not particularly scarce. And many times, this is even in high grade. Granted, this is a very broad area so of course some will be common and others will be rare, but I believe them to be much more common generally than contemporary US coinage which for the most part, are available but vastly more expensive. But what I can definitively state is that I have seen many more high grade European coins from this time period than from the US because I have seen them in tracking numerous auction for several years.

 

However, I will admit that copper and bronze appear to be much scarcer than at least silver. In the 1790 Insurrection coinage, none of the silver are "rare" in high grade (AU or better) by my standards even though the mintages were relatively low by modern standards. (The mintages range from 8,000 to 44,000.) I thought they were until I found the Elsier auctions and they appear fairly regularly (a few times year at least) though MS issues are more difficult to find.

 

With these coins, the copper/bronze show up much less often than the silver, even though the mintages were reportedly close to 200,000. They are almost always in low grade. (I have the Liard in NGC MS-63 BN and two of the 2 Liard in NGC MS-64 BN and NGC MS-63 RB. I have both version of the 10 Sols and Florin in NGC MS-63 or better.) I have not seen them with corrosion but this is very common with US early copper. Probably the reason there are not many is because as a low value coin, most of them circulated heavily. With silver, we must remember that the face value of a coin such as the 1790 crown sized 3 florin was worth a lot of money for the typical person and few probably ever even owned one.

 

Eventually, I want to buy both of these in RED but it's possible that they do not even exist because they were not stored properly and maybe in some instances, they were darkened though I do not know that with certainty. There are a handful of US large cents in MS RD in the census and these are very highly desired (and exorbitantly expensive) by US EAC collectors. If anyone can ever find such a coin from this period (from anywhere) for a reasonable price, I would recommend buying it.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

Thanks Ernesto,

I will search for Jean Elsier to see if he has decent examples of VOC Copper.

In the mean time, I had a further look at the batch of Batavian Republic Coins and have found a single 1805 Duit or One sixteenth Gulden KM#100 - that has a different inscription to the One Thirtysecond G or Half Duit shown before in Unc - it has the Crowned Overyssel arms on the reverse.

Eventhough the Dutch had seemingly gone Napoleonic by then with the abolition of the old seven provinces in fact, it seems from these inscriptions that echoes of the old Netherlands still remained in their coinage.

A double struck Half Duit was also found that I find interesting and reflects on mintage methods (obviously rough).

Regards

Georg

58f5a726e6a6b_1808BatavianRepamp117.jpg.d927aa2b73c4517b814b75cc341cfc96.jpg

58f5a72700baa_1808BatavianRepamp117.jpg.cd0b6804353b1309cbbbf920cd8a422f.jpg

58f5a72705170_1805BatavianRepamp117.jpg.969c5bedbc57fc24132a4f7e80f0728b.jpg

58f5a727094de_1805BatavianRepamp117.jpg.f5292d325fe95c6b6c69577a2f0324b5.jpg

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geejay50

Hi Pierre,

With reference to the year of striking of the 1790 Duit shown before, I need to correct the actual date of striking.

 

I however, did not know that they were struck a decade or three later. The shipwreck must then date from say the late 1830s or even later?

 

 

According to the CD version of Krause 6th edition , the coin shown is KM#111.4 and bears the Mint Mark as a single star. That coin was struck in 1840-43 and refers to the coin in this posting. The 1790 Duit with the Mint Mark bearing a star between two dots was struck in the years 1827,1834 and 1835 (KM#111.3)

 

There has not yet been a 1790 Duit graded at NGC. I tried to send one to NGC and PCGS but without success (environmentally damaged see pic ) I really thought I had an Unc coin when I bought it on ebay but one can see with the loupe that it has been altered despite being without wear.

 

Looking at all years, there have been a total of 9 VOC Copper duits graded at NGC spread over the years 1746 (1),1747 (1),1755 (1),1756 (2),1793 (1) and 1794(3) with grades from VF(2) to MS64(1) with Provinces Holland (2),Zeeland(2),West Friesland(2) and Utrecht(3).

 

The AU58 1755 Hollandia coin graded and sold at Northeast Numismatics for about $300 is shown.The strike is eccentric and soft, the colours original.The excellent pics NEN have taken have been removed because of copyright but I have received this coin and the pics are below.

 

Geejay

58f5a72721867_1790DuitVOCdeta.jpg.d905f5cac3b5824f2b02c76275c5d6c6.jpg

58f5a727270d3_1790DuitVOCdeta.jpg.87643dfd6dac34d8121b7216c6e8c373.jpg

58f5a72763c75_1755VOCCopperDu.jpg.5eebe4fef0ac844777c7517002a41dbb.jpg

58f5a72769822_1755VOCCopperDu.jpg.65d2c885bcafaf6cd5d7737c10d1da95.jpg

58f5a7276dcc9_1755VOCCopperDu.jpg.af273da92649dd5840bca512f3fcb891.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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geejay50

Hello all ,

 

I have managed to obtain a decent Copper Duit from overseas. The date is 1732 and it has lustre too.Some NCS attention is needed to improve this coin and I will keep you posted as to the grade (Please see pic). Rough the strike is and delightfully so, for a refreshing change, no corrosion or wear.Its the first time I have seen a specimen where the jewels of the crown are not worn in part.The obverse strike is so much better than the AU58 specimen above and the crown and lion so much clearer. They must have used the same die over and over again changing only the reverse die.

 

The VOC obtained permission for the mintage of their own coinage carrying their logo in 1726 from the State General (Dutch Government) and this is one of their earlier issues coming from the mint of the Hollandia Province (Dutch crown over rampant lion with claws extended). Silver Duits struck for the VOC followed from the middle of the 1700s onwards and the bigger Silver 10 Stuivers, One Guldens and Three Guldens from 1780 to nearly the end of the 18th century when the VOC went insolvent.

 

To repeat myself, we must give the VOC a space in our South African numismatic history from the period 1726 to 1796. It had a very significant role to play in the development of South Africa even if it was an unwilling developer and the process not well documented.The coinage of this period moves into the Batavian Republic of 1799 to 1806 which in turn indirectly involves us as a colonised nation in the tumultous effects of the French Revolution and Napoleon on Europe.

 

It adds scope and depth to a Numismatic scene often too obsessed with immediate monetary concerns. In the long run, it will be a careful interpretation of historical facts that will be important in how our complete South African coin story will look. Engelbrecht has probably done the best pioneering work in this regard in his work 'Money in South Africa'.

 

Geejay

58f5a7272c4d6_1732DuitNEIHoll.jpg.6eeef8fa9f009f950bbb3cdf3a3faa61.jpg

58f5a72731a45_1732DuitNEIHoll.jpg.ffae6861ffbcab05421a286a1640c8d4.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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geejay50

Hello all,

 

Something quite fundamental struck me in reading the book "The Making of the Union of South Africa" by M.S.Geen. The VOC Governors at the Cape starting with Jan van Riebeeck were subordinate and accountable to the Governor General at the Company headquarters at Batavia (Indonesia) and Council of India.We do not to-day consider our country as part of Indonesia but in those days our country was considered a part thereof.

 

We must therefore consider coins that bear the inscription "Indiae Batavorum" as minted for the Cape as well as the VOC possesions in the East. The second occupation by the British following the battle of Trafalgar in 1806 changed that but those Scheepjesgulden fractions that were already at the Cape as brought by Commisioner de Mist (please see pics) were used by the General David Baird for the British as currency for circulation (Engelbrecht pg 26) .The Napoleonic Dutch origin of these coins was ignored by the British because of the desperate need for small currency in the expanding Cape.

Off the subject but the two coins shown below are grouped in the same category by NGC despite the obvious differences with the reverse lacking the rope around it and a smaller design on the Obverse. I have sent Dutch Catalogue evidence of these and the 1/16G varieties that has been forwarded to the NGC graders three months ago without reply. Its probably too hard to correct I can only assume.

 

Geejay

58f5a7274020b_1802NEIBatavRepamp.jpg.0e868f74d0a62e2ef4707d9396884e76.jpg

58f5a727444fb_1802NEIBatavRepamp.jpg.8cade58c45baf30e1c504e890bd31698.jpg

58f5a727486fa_1802NEIBatavRepamp.jpg.df55a25646766f10af8581fc560ed8a2.jpg

58f5a7274c76d_1802NEIBatavRepamp.jpg.f321497856b283c8f28a86b7270b49c4.jpg

58f5a727508be_1802NEIBatavRepamp.jpg.ec11002294cd296047fea673ffbfb34d.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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Pierre_Henri

1931 Union Series Shilling - How does it compare against the 1893 ZAR Shilling ...?

 

A month ago on this thread, I posted a picture of a 1931 Shilling.

 

The coin was bought through City Coins from the well published Ford Collection on the 31st of May 1985 for R250.00. The starting price was R175 and the coin was described as GF.

 

Its owner is an "Old School" collector and at 76 years of age, do not "believe" in grading companies - so for the time being, we will not know if the coin will grade or not.

 

Today, I came across the following 1931 Shilling that is in worse shape than the one above, but I think there is a good chance that it just might grade (although at a very low grade maybe a G4 or some grade seldom seen)

 

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e71/Pierrex/Shilling1931.jpg

 

But what I really cannot understand, is that cataloguers though the years - not only Hern - have valued the 1931 Shilling (in all grades) well below that of say the ZAR 1893 Shilling.

 

But in terms of scarcity , the two coins are like chalk and cheese - the 1931 shilling is seldom seen in any condition whilst the 1893 ZAR 1/- is fairly frequently offered on say an auction site like Bid-or-Buy.

 

It was quite a shock for me to see that NGC has only graded three (3) 1931 Shillings ever, and the grades are G, VG and F ... that is all - whatever happened to the other 6600 1931 shillings is a total mystery . I mean, even in those depression years in the early 1930s , there must have been SOME collectors who must have searched for a 1931 shilling and put it aside - but no, it seems like it never happened and "nobody" truly realized their true rarity.

 

I would personally rate a 1931 Shilling in VF as 5 to ten times scarcer than a 1893 ZAR shilling, so if a graded 1893 Shilling should sell for R4000, can one imagine what a similar graded 1931 shilling would reach - bearing in mind that it will be the ONLY one in the world in that grade?

 

It is therefore an enigma : Hern values the 1893 Shilling as almost 10 times more valuable in Fine as the 1931 issue. How do these respected cataloguers arrive at their values?

 

Kind regards

 

Pierre

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jwither

NEN sold the 1931 NGC G4 for $495. So if this is a fair market price, it should already sell for more than the 1893 in at least some equivalent grades now because the Hern catalog prices are meaningless. Heritage has also sold a few of the 1893 in better circulated grades (at least an XF-45), but I'm not convinced that a 1931 would sell for more. I believe it deserves to sell for more but it may not.

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geejay50

Hello Ernesto,

 

Do you know when the G4 1931 1/- was sold by NEN? I consider $495 quite low for any graded 1931 1/- seeing as the best is only F. The surge in George V prices happened around 2008 about.

Drawing a comparison with 1893 1/- is a bit difficult for me as the ZAR market is so much bigger and more established whether we like it or not.An AU50 1893 1/- sold last month on Bob for R70,000 and that is a good grade but quite far from the best. Even much scarcer George V coins like the 1931 1/- will never get quite to that price level at this point in time although that may change in the future.

 

My 10 c worth.

 

Geejay

 

Geejay

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Pierre_Henri

A Question ....

 

An interesting question for me as a collector and dealer in the Union of South Africa coin series is the following: -

What silver coins in this series (if not in top condition) would you consider sending to NGC or PCGS for grading at a cost of say R300 per coin and still expect to make a profit when (re)selling them?

Let’s make it fairly safe for a seller – say you must sell the coin for more than R500 to make a good clean profit on a VF30 or VF35 coin...

THEN, I would (with maybe two or three other coins possibly considered and one or two left out) send the following 35 coins for grading if at the very least their grading would be guarenteed in the VF30 or VF35 range. .

Tickey: If I know the grade would return as a VF30 or VF35, I would only send the 1931 date and maybe the 1925 wreath.

For the sixpence I would only send the 1931 date.

For the shilling I would consider sending the following dates: 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930, 1931, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1948.

For the two shillings I would consider sending the following dates: 1923, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1931, 1938, 1946, 1947, 1948 and 1950.

For the Half Crowns I would consider sending the following dates: 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1950.

For the Crown I would only send the 1959 date.

Please remember these are only for VF grades – if I should consider XF dates, then obviously the whole scenario changes – for example the 1925 Half Crown, will surely be a winner for grading then ...

Pierre

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Pierre_Henri

The Old vs. the New ......

 

... because the Hern catalog prices are meaningless.

 

O well, Hern's catalogue is ALL we have at the moment regarding mintage figures, latest issues, example pictures, ets. etc. and I will keep on ordering his catalogue for some unknown reason.

 

But regarding catalogue prices I consider the last (and now outdated in terms of its publication) issue of Cliff van Rensburg's "Coin and Banknote Catalogue" of 2002/3 the best we have - those prices are nearer to the current selling prices than any other catalogue I can think of including the Krause and Mishler world coin catalogue.

 

If a catalogue is not based on current selling prices (and I think you will agree with me) - and only on the old styled -- "keep adding a 5 % or 10% value per coin from year to year regardless of what the market says" -- it is, like you say, meaningless"

 

Pierre

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jwither
Hello Ernesto,

 

Do you know when the G4 1931 1/- was sold by NEN? I consider $495 quite low for any graded 1931 1/- seeing as the best is only F. The surge in George V prices happened around 2008 about.

Drawing a comparison with 1893 1/- is a bit difficult for me as the ZAR market is so much bigger and more established whether we like it or not.An AU50 1893 1/- sold last month on Bob for R70,000 and that is a good grade but quite far from the best. Even much scarcer George V coins like the 1931 1/- will never get quite to that price level at this point in time although that may change in the future.

 

My 10 c worth.

 

Geejay

 

Geejay

 

That 1931 1/ sold sometime in early 2009. I'm not sure exactly when but I agree that this was a poor time to sell coins because that was the low point of the financial crisis, at least as measured by the stock market averages such as the US DJIA.

 

Given how infrequently the 1931 come up for sale, establishing a market price is difficult, just like with many other coins. For example, Baldwin's sold a 1931 6D raw graded "Fine" for 200 GBP recently. I believe it is exactly the same coin which they sold maybe a year ago or so for 80 GBP. Personally, I do not believe this latter coin deserves to sell for that price which is about $400 USD with buyers premium. This implies that if the coin graded, it would likely sell for a lot more given the spreads between graded and raw coins. Now, compare this actual and any potential implied graded price for a F-12 or F-15 to the Heritage NGC "AU Details" which sold for $1265 last year. Even if the latter price is somewhat low, there is no sense in that at all because the latter coin is vastly better, regardless of the fact that it was not eligible for a numerical grade.

 

But on your comments about the current grades of the 1931 1/, I do not believe it should sell for a lot more just because of the current census. I do not believe there are many of these as I have said, but the fact remains that KGV coins in lower grades are not popular at all. Most collectors do not even want them at all unless this has changed without my knowledge. Yes, even for a coin like this one. To give you another example, the Bakewell NGC AU-58 1944 1/ which I owned before, I offerred it to two other collectors and neither of them wanted it because it was not MS. I consider this a poor reason not to buy a coin but I consider those sentiments typical of SA collectors and have seen nothing on this forum to give me a reason to change my opinion. With a basal grade like G-4, only those who want a "filler" coin would likely consider it just to say they have a complete set.

 

On the 1893 1/, I consider a price of R70,000 for an AU-50 to be far too much. Heritage sold an NGC XF-40 last year for $1955 and a PCGS AU-50 also last year for $4830. I see no reason to believe that this BoB coin should sell for that much more.

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jwither
O well, Hern's catalogue is ALL we have at the moment regarding mintage figures, latest issues, example pictures, ets. etc. and I will keep on ordering his catalogue for some unknown reason.

 

But regarding catalogue prices I consider the last (and now outdated in terms of its publication) issue of Cliff van Rensburg's "Coin and Banknote Catalogue" of 2002/3 the best we have - those prices are nearer to the current selling prices than any other catalogue I can think of including the Krause and Mishler world coin catalogue.

 

If a catalogue is not based on current selling prices (and I think you will agree with me) - and only on the old styled -- "keep adding a 5 % or 10% value per coin from year to year regardless of what the market says" -- it is, like you say, meaningless"

 

Pierre

 

I do agree with you, not just for Hern but even more for Krause. I have no idea what "hat" Krause pulls their prices from. When I looked at the 2008 edition, the prices were almost identical to those in the my 1998 version. Yes, you read that correclty. How much sense does that make?

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jwither
An interesting question for me as a collector and dealer in the Union of South Africa coin series is the following: -

What silver coins in this series (if not in top condition) would you consider sending to NGC or PCGS for grading at a cost of say R300 per coin and still expect to make a profit when (re)selling them?

Let’s make it fairly safe for a seller – say you must sell the coin for more than R500 to make a good clean profit on a VF30 or VF35 coin...

THEN, I would (with maybe two or three other coins possibly considered and one or two left out) send the following 35 coins for grading if at the very least their grading would be guarenteed in the VF30 or VF35 range. .

Tickey: If I know the grade would return as a VF30 or VF35, I would only send the 1931 date and maybe the 1925 wreath.

For the sixpence I would only send the 1931 date.

For the shilling I would consider sending the following dates: 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930, 1931, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1948.

For the two shillings I would consider sending the following dates: 1923, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1931, 1938, 1946, 1947, 1948 and 1950.

For the Half Crowns I would consider sending the following dates: 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1950.

For the Crown I would only send the 1959 date.

Please remember these are only for VF grades – if I should consider XF dates, then obviously the whole scenario changes – for example the 1925 Half Crown, will surely be a winner for grading then ...

Pierre

 

You did not say how much profit is your target, but I do not believe most of those coins would sell for much in those grades. At least not enough to me to be worth the bother of sending the coin for grading, especially to NGC or PCGS from South Africa. By denomination:

 

I agree with you on the tickey and 6D

 

For the 1/, I would not bother with the 1928, 1930, 1945 and 1948. Some of the other dates such as the 1947 are marginal as well even though that coin is very scarce and I have seen few of them.

 

For the 2/, the 1923 is scarcer than many apparently think, but I doubt that it would sell for much in a grade like VF. The 1948 is presumably scarcer than most other dates because of the mintage, but I believe it to be more common in MS than many others probably believe. Today, there are about 40 in the combined census versus 15 for the 1944. I consider the latter coin more common in AU or below but much scarcer in MS. I believe that any collector who can afford to buy an MS would prefer and be better off buying the 1948 in that grade. There are enough of them to make it feasible. I do not recall even seeing one in a grade like VF.

 

For the 5/, if you have seen a 1959 in VF, I would like to know. I never have though I assume it is because I have not looked hard enough. I used to see this date a lot more six or seven years ago, but I do not consider it scarce at all. I expect that the typical grade of a circulation strike (as opposed to proof or PL) is either XF or AU. I would not buy or want this coin in VF and I am not interested in paying current prices for this coin in MS either. I consider it one of the most overpriced coins in the Union series.

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geejay50
To give you another example, the Bakewell NGC AU-58 1944 1/ which I owned before, I offerred it to two other collectors and neither of them wanted it because it was not MS.

 

Gee Ernesto, I think you were unlucky to offer the AU58 1944 1/- at a time when Union collectors were not aware of scarcity yet. If you had to offer such a finest known coin to-day, the story would be very different. I had a bidder who was prepared to go up to R11,000 ($1571) for an XF40 1944 Shilling I had for sale last year.

 

Regards

 

Georg

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jwither
To give you another example, the Bakewell NGC AU-58 1944 1/ which I owned before, I offerred it to two other collectors and neither of them wanted it because it was not MS.

 

Gee Ernesto, I think you were unlucky to offer the AU58 1944 1/- at a time when Union collectors were not aware of scarcity yet. If you had to offer such a finest known coin to-day, the story would be very different. I had a bidder who was prepared to go up to R11,000 ($1571) for an XF40 1944 Shilling I had for sale last year.

 

Regards

 

Georg

 

You could be right. I sold my coin for quite a bit more than $1500 USD but not as much as this price for an XF-40 implies. However, unless you are in a position to tell me otherwise, I'm not sure that an XF-40 would sell for that price in competitive open bidding. And certainly not outside of South Africa which is a disadvantage in selling these coins for someone such as myself.

 

As for the scarcity of this date/denomination combination, apparently, I was aware that it was much scarcer than most or almost everyone believed it to be. Because I bought it cheap where anyone else could have bid against me but apparently, no one else wanted it. It should have been obvious that this coin was and is scarce to anyone because at the time I bought it, there were ZERO in the combined NGC and PCGS census. I recall being offered this coin in MS by a well known South African collector about five years ago (before I was also aware of its scarcity and presumably them based upon the asking price), but they later changed their mind. However, assuming that my recollection is correct and this coin was actually an MS (since I never even saw an image), it is the only other specimen that I am aware of that would be equal to the one I owned.

 

Personally, I believe there are others out there in equivalent or better grade than this AU-58. I say this because it would be essentially unprecedented for a coin of this late date with this recorded mintage (50,000) to have such a miniscule survival rate. I do not believe there are more than a few in higher grades, but "few" could be more than most others believe. As to where they are, it is the same sources discussed here. The first are "old time" South Africa collections by those who do not prefer graded coins and the second is foreigners such as myself. Particularly with collectors who do not follow the census pops (which includes both of these groups), it would not be unexpected for many of them to be unaware of this coin's actual scarcity given the recorded mintage. The fact I was able to buy my prior coin so cheaply is not conclusive proof of this but strongly supports this opinion.

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geejay50

Hi Ernesto,

 

The 1944 Shilling is perhaps a very good example how a whole market can sleep on a coin that has a low mintage and there had until a year or two ago not been one coin graded.Then suddenly a few key collectors start finding a few remaining coins but the big money remains with the 1893 1/- eventhough there are at present 84 coins graded at NGC alone - compare that to just 6 1944 1/- graded with AU58 as finest known- it remains the second scarcest South African business strike shilling ever after the 1931 - but the Market has not yet given the coin that place by and large. The 1926 Shilling has had 13 coins graded at NGC (11) and PCGS (2) with 4 in Mint State - yet one will pay a lot more for that coin than the 1944 Shilling at this point in time.(I paid R22,200 - about $3000 in a hard fought local auction for an AU55 1926 1/- in September 2010)

 

Now for the real wild card, there is a 1956 1/- with a massive mintage of 2 143 360 but there have only been 13 coins graded and 8 in Mint State at NGC 0 at PCGS yet there is no interest in the coin at all with one for sale !! One can argue that there is a whole heap still coming for grading but what if there isnt? I dont see many on any market , on and off the internet.This could stand as one of those many missed bargains by the market which has a history of sleeping too long !

 

Geejay

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

Geejay,

 

I do not believe the 1956 1/ is that scarce in MS, though of course it depends upon what MS grade you are talking about. I have all eight dates in MS raw but I have not bothered to send them in for grading because the cost-value proposition does not justify it. It is probably an MS-63. I cannot say how hard it is too find though because frankly, I have not paid attention to it. I have the one specimen I need and I am not looking to buy a second one. Possibly, most other collectors thought likewise about the 1944 1/ but I see no ACTUAL similarity between the two coins.

 

On the NGC Message Boards, I have had a periodic debate with one particular collector of US circulating moderns. These are the US coins that are still available in your pocket change today. This person has repeatedly claimed that there is (in this instance) future pent up demand that is going to drive prices for some of these coins apparently substantially higher. I say "apparently" because they have never provided specifics, always only generalities. Never how much they think the price will increase, which coins (since this field includes over 500 issues) or what grades.

 

What I have written on my posts here on the census numbers is the same thing I have told him. With US coins though, it is not so much collector preference as current market value.

 

Though the 1956 1/ is much scarcer (in my opinion) than any US circulating modern (as a generic date), let me give you one example for illustrative purposes. The coin is the 1982 "D" Washington Quarter.

 

I saw this coins for sale this past sunday as a PCGS MS-65 for all of $25. At a cost of $11 per coin or maybe $9.90 with Collector Society discount, how many people can be bothered to send such a coin in for grading? It does not make sense except maybe for the registry set collector.

 

Yes, this coin, which has a mintage of about 500 MILLION, is much scarcer than most people probably believe, but it still is not scarce in absolute terms and not even scarcer than more than a few other coins from other US series that are not "moderns", maybe none except the cent . When I checked the census pops this past week, there were 98 with NGC. And most of these are either MS-65 or MS-66. I do not have access to the PCGS data but I suspect that there are at least as many as its sister coin with "P" mintmark which is 359 for PCGS and 52 for NGC. (The source for this is Heritage. I could not find a Heritage sale for the "D" coin.)

 

Now, I do not consider any of these numbers to be low, especially for these grades. Common sense tells you that given the low value, there are likely quite a few more MS-65 at least and probably MS-66 (valued at about $100). And there are likely a VAST number of coins graded MS-64 or below because they are likely worth about the same as the grading fee at most.

 

Ok, so now given these facts, why would anyone believe that most of these coins have been graded? I see no reason given what is known about coin collecting generally. It is only as "conditional rarities" which are sometimes MS-66 but usually MS-67 where the census is likely to be "mature". I think there are more, but even if "only" 5000 exist today for this example in MS, that is not remotely scarce. Given the low current value, its not improbable that this is how many MS-65 or better exist, at least today.

 

Back to the 1956 1/, I have no idea how many are actually still available in MS. Smeltings, demonetization and lower mintage should unquestionably result in this coin being much scarcer than my example. But I could see and actually expect that at least a few hundred are actually available, though likely not very many in grades MS-65 or better.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

Hi Ernesto,

 

You could be right that there are more 1956 Shillings around that nobody bothers to grade, after all the mintage is 2 143 360 but if one can go back earlier in time, the 1924 Halfcrowns had a mintage of 2 555 875 and yet the number in Mint State are only 13 (NGC & PCGS) after intensive grading effort in the past 3 years.Prices for such Mint State coins are easily over R20,000 - I paid R25,000 for an MS63 ($3570) in 2010 . We may though be in for a surprise in a few years time with the 1956 1/- if not many more get graded to supply a suddenly hungry market.

 

The market often mistakes high mintage as meaning high survival without looking a bit further.

 

Have you noticed the 1933 Two Shilling MS61 that was sold recently for $3800 on ebay ? An MS61 was sold on Northeast Numismatics on 11/03/2008 for $425 - effectively an increase of 900% in three years !!! The dynamics are interesting - 5 Mint State coins graded between NGC & PCGS with finest known at only MS62. Mintage quite high at 890 591 although again like the 1924 Halfcrown, Mint State survival very low with very few or no new raw coins in Unc around for grading so not likely to change - 44 bids from 12 bidders. Hind sight would confirm the growth in interest towards George V coins especially the Mint State scarcer coins in the last three years. Objectively these coins are really very much scarcer than the ZAR group for a few reasons including neglect by a fickle market.They may be the best investment for the future!

 

See pic of a recent addition.

 

Geejay

58f5a7278f55c_1933PennyMS65RBamp.jpg.939e0db7e2dc32ac32daaee258c7f41c.jpg

58f5a7279409d_1933PennyMS65RBamp.jpg.febb19355ecd45204d0a216ab8f84c78.jpg

58f5a72798c74_1933PennyMS65RBamp.jpg.97c1ad7c9e8203fc64bf459ba57e75dd.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

Geejay,

 

I have a few comments to make on yours.

 

I saw the 1933 MS-61 2/. And yes, I know that there are only five MS in the census. But on its price, I will make the same comments I did before. Either this coin in this grade is overpriced, or its counterparts in higher AU grades are underpriced. Or maybe it is a combination of both. It is one or the other because there is simply not that big of a difference between most AU-55 or AU-58 and an MS-61. I have two of this coin in AU-55. One is "white" and the other is nicely toned. How much would these coins sell for now? $200? $300? Less? You can tell me. But if these prices are approximate, what is the justification for an MS-61 selling for 10 to 20 TIMES an AU-55 when the ACTUAL appearance between the two coins does not differ that much? I have raised this question many times. I have two 1936 2/ in NGC MS-61 and I can tell you that while both are nice coins, one of them has MANY contact marks. It is semi-PL which is why I believe it has this grade but the toned 1933 AU-55 either has fewer or they are somewhat hidden.. My answer is irrational bias for MS primarily because of the number on the slab and its current unjustified market perception as an "investment" coin versus the others.

 

On the 1956 1/, I think you have it backwards. UNLESS the price increases substantially, normally there will be no large increase in the census numbers. This is not always true but it is the norm. the census pops have increased a lot for KGVI silver and I gave you the example of US circulating modern. But normally, low prices = low census pops and not necessarily scarcity. Ultimately though, it will only be if prices increase a lot and there is NOT a large or proportionately large increase in the pops that we will THEN know that this coin is ACTUALLY scarce.

 

On the 1924, that coin is scarcer than I used to think. I saw a decent number in AU in the past which fooled me on its scarcity in MS. But I do not agree that most of the KGV 2/6 are actually scarcer or much scarcer than equivalent ZAR. This might sound like a strange comment but let's look at the data based upon the last time I performed an actual comparison which was on 8-13-10.

 

The common ZAR date is 1897 and the slightly more common dates are the 1892 and 1896. The most common KGV dates are the 1930, 1932 and 1936. Aside from the 1897, yes the ZAR are slightly more common than these other KGV dates, but this is overwhelmed by the huge advantage in popularity whcih ZAR currently has over KGV when it comes to price. I expect the price gap to narrow somewhat - maybe a lot - but never to the point where KGV sells for a price to ZAR based upon the relative census pops.

 

Looking at the popularity of US coins since I started collecting coins in 1975, to my knowldege, there are exactly ZERO series which have overtaken another one since then. Yes, this is correct. Obviously, relative prices have changed somewhat both between them and within them, but NO CHANGE in the order.

 

Now let's look at the other ZAR and KGV dates. Yes, it is true that the KGV are still slightly scarcer, but not really that much except in a RELATIVE sense. Neither of the census pops are that large for MS for either. The 1923, 1924, 1925 and 1928 are not really that much scarcer than the 1893-1895. Matching them coin for coin, some are MORE COMMON. It is only with dates like the 1931, 1933 and 1926 where I consider the difference significant at all. And once again, the popularity of KGV is unlikely to increase enough relative to ZAR as I described before. I can see a future MS 1931 selling for more than any MS ZAR, but not otherwise.

 

It is only when the AU specimens are included in the analysis that KGV is ACTUALLY that much scarcer than ZAR. But coincidentally and ironically, the market has little interest in KGV AU at this time which weakens the comparison you are making. As far as I am concerned, including these coins and for the scarcest dates, even lower grades, is an entirely valid consideration but most collectors and "investors" disagree with me which is why KGV prices below MS are so low in most instances.

 

Also, when you say "intensive grading", I agree with you that this generally applies to collectors in SA and of course, the US. But not elsewhere. R20,000 in the example you gave is a big increase from the recent past but in the "bigger picture" it is still "chump change". For collectors in markets who do not prefer graded coins, there are MANY such coins that have not been graded. How many I do not know but I would say generally MOST of them. Take a look at European auctions on Sixbid and you can confirm this for yourself. Take a look at the census pops for most non-US coins outside of Canada and South Africa. Most issues either have either ZERO graded coins or a handful, not because most of these coins are "rare", but because these collectors prefer their coins ungraded. Now, I happen to believe that these collectors do not own that many of these KGV coins, but I still think more than most others generally believe.

 

And because most KGV mintages are large, it is easy for a non-specialist to be fooled by the perceived versus actual scarcity for most dates like the 1924 2/6 and 1933 2/. Just like each of us DOES NOT generally know how scarce coins from series that we do not collect really are, others do not know how scarce SA KGV are either. They do not know about the collecting history in SA (or lack of it) or the smelting levels due to silver prices and demonetization. This may seem obvious to you and me, but not to everyone else.

 

Given that the prices of ZAR are so much higher than KGV, if I was going to make a wager, I would defintely place my money on the odds that the ZAR census is more complete or far more complete than KGV.

Edited by jwither

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