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geejay50

1894 Halfpond MS63 on ebay $12,750

 

Seldom do we see the real good stuff for sale publicly.

 

I am referring to the near top of the scarcer ZAR Gold series.

 

This has a depth of buyers internationally that we must not underestimate.

 

Please see this link: South Africa 1894 1 2 Pound Gold MS63 NGC Very Very RARE CV 20000 | eBay

 

Unfortunately the coin was not offered to the SA buyers and would have fetched more if it had been (my view)

 

The buyer had no previous African coins in his profile and was clearly an international buyer. Perhaps he had an SA buyer to sell to.

 

The Grading stats for the 1894 Halfpond are as follows :

 

PCGS: 71 graded MS61(1),63(1),65(1)

NGC: 266 graded MS61(5),62(4),63(2),64(1)

 

We are talking third finest in a series that has big depth of interest.

 

So whilst we can talk about depression in prices of some areas of our market, we must not lose sight of where real value lies and the money that will become available to pay for it. The Mandela bubble did not help but tarnish prices elsewhere.

 

My thoughts

 

Geejay

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jwither
1894 Halfpond MS63 on ebay $12,750

 

This has a depth of buyers internationally that we must not underestimate.

 

Unfortunately the coin was not offered to the SA buyers and would have fetched more if it had been (my view)

 

The buyer had no previous African coins in his profile and was clearly an international buyer. Perhaps he had an SA buyer to sell to.

 

We are talking third finest in a series that has big depth of interest.

 

So whilst we can talk about depression in prices of some areas of our market, we must not lose sight of where real value lies and the money that will become available to pay for it. The Mandela bubble did not help but tarnish prices elsewhere.

 

My thoughts

 

Geejay

 

I agree with you that the coin would have sold for more if offered to a South African buyer. I don't agree with the rest of your comments.

 

What is your definition of depth? The fact of the matter is that there isn't much depth for hardly any coins whether this one or most others. In actuality, the demand and market for a coin like this one is thin though I agree ZAR is more popular compared a large percentage in the thousands or tens of thousands of other series but this doesn't really say much either.

 

Outside of expatriates who I believe are the primary foreign buyers and I don't believe that large in number, there is no evidence anywhere that any critical mass of foreigners are interested in buying a ZAR coin like this one at this type of price. You can see my rebuttal to this idea in the topic "Why is the ZAR market currently so low". On the NGC Message Boards, I have on occassion refuted this concept as well because the exact same reality applies to the buying of US coins by those who are not Americans. Foreigners aren't interested in paying the current prices either because they would rather buy their own coins which are disproportionately much cheaper, just as they won't with ZAR

 

The fact of the matter is that the coin you have profiled and others like it do not represent the best value. Relatively speaking, collectively they are the most overpriced because there isn't any substantial difference between them and those one or a few grades lower.

 

As for the money becoming available to pay for them, there is and never has been a shortage of money, not for this coin or any other. Potential buyers do not make it available because they would rather spend it on something elseand usually not on coins at all.

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Pierre_Henri
1894 Halfpond MS63 on ebay $12,750

 

Seldom do we see the real good stuff for sale publicly.

 

I am referring to the near top of the scarcer ZAR Gold series.

 

This has a depth of buyers internationally that we must not underestimate.

 

Please see this link: South Africa 1894 1 2 Pound Gold MS63 NGC Very Very RARE CV 20000 | eBay

 

Unfortunately the coin was not offered to the SA buyers and would have fetched more if it had been (my view)

 

The buyer had no previous African coins in his profile and was clearly an international buyer. Perhaps he had an SA buyer to sell to.

 

The Grading stats for the 1894 Halfpond are as follows :

 

PCGS: 71 graded MS61(1),63(1),65(1)

NGC: 266 graded MS61(5),62(4),63(2),64(1)

 

We are talking third finest in a series that has big depth of interest.

 

So whilst we can talk about depression in prices of some areas of our market, we must not lose sight of where real value lies and the money that will become available to pay for it. The Mandela bubble did not help but tarnish prices elsewhere.

 

My thoughts

 

Geejay

 

Let us all be happy and just rejoice in this FANTATIC price this wonderful coin got.

 

Lets refrain from negative comments - our market is very small so PLEASE check your comments ...

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jwither
Let us all be happy and just rejoice in this FANTATIC price this wonderful coin got.

 

Lets refrain from negative comments - our market is very small so PLEASE check your comments ...

 

What negative comments are you referring to? Wouldn't happen to be because I disagree with the lopsided sentiments which are always attempting to promote higher prices would it?

 

I am aware that everyone else on this forum is in favor of higher prices only and would prefer that I did not contradict them. That is a given. If I am negative, those who take the opposite position are "cheerleading" and in many instances, blatantly so even when there is no support for such sentiments whatsoever. Anyone can read my posting history and those of other contributors to see who has been more impartial.

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Pierre_Henri

Most of us here are against lob-sided prices when some uninformed buyer/bidder burns his/her hands on e.g. Mandela nonsense hyped coins.

 

But when true rarities are sold - the well informed bidders decided - that is what they wanted to bid on and that is what they wish to add to their collection(s).

 

To tell them over and over and over again that they have made bad choices is in bad taste and a "klap" in their face -

 

Pierre

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jwither
Most of us here are against lob-sided prices when some uninformed buyer/bidder burns his/her hands on e.g. Mandela nonsense hyped coins.

 

But when true rarities are sold - the well informed bidders decided - that is what they wanted to bid on and that is what they wish to add to their collection(s).

 

To tell them over and over and over again that they have made bad choices is in bad taste and a "klap" in their face -

 

Pierre

 

You must be reading different posts on this forum that I am. There must be an alternative forum where my posts are recorded which are completely different from what I actually wrote.

 

First, I never said in my last comments that the buyer overpaid for this particular coin. Where did you get this idea and where did I say it? What I disagreed with was Geejay's characterization of the demand for expensive ZAR which I do not believe is remotely correct. Most of the demand for scarcer and higher priced ZAR comes locally from your market and to some limited extent probably from expats now living elsewhere. This is what I was challenging because I don't believe there is any evidence whatsoever that foreigners in any number of consequence are generally interested in buying expensive coins from elsewhere, whether ZAR or otherwise. It is hardly "negative" and I don't see anything in your last two replies to refute this claim I made. That you do not like this opinion which I think is much better supported than what all of you would like to believe is a completely different consideration.

 

Second, for you to single out the Mandela issues which others (besides me) have identified as the only or even primary overpriced coins is disingenuous to say the least and it is not remotely correct. Would you like me to remind you of some of the coins you have highlighted which were also overpriced and terrible values? You certainly aren't even close to the worst to do this but you have definitely done it yourself and this is endemic on this forum. It isn't or wasn't just the Mandela issues which were overpriced. Disproportionately, it is all of the highest graded coins. Many of them are still overpriced. If you or others want to believe otherwise, you are free to do so and buy them. If you don't care about the financial aspects, then it doesn't matter whether they lose value or not and you certainly won't hear me telling you that you should not have bought it. I have occasionally bought overpriced coins myself with full knowledge of it and while I don't know if I have said so here, I can point you to my prior posts on the NGC Message Boards where I did. Going by your prior posting history and the coins you apparently buy, I don't see that you are going to buy them any more than I will.

 

Third, I agree that anyone should buy a coin at whatever price they want and never said they should not, either in this last post or in the past. I disagree that most of the bidders who do so for the more expensive coins are necessarily well informed. Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not. Most of the time, I don't believe they are financially because it should be obvious that the primary consideration in paying these prices is financial for the reasons I have provided before and from the historical comments on this forum which make it apparent that this is true. Because if collecting was the primary motive, the prices I have highlighted more often than not never would have been paid.

Edited by jwither

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Pierre_Henri

I am Sorry

 

You must be reading different posts on this forum that I am. There must be an alternative forum where my posts are recorded which are completely different from what I actually wrote.

 

First, I never said in my last comments that the buyer overpaid for this particular coin. Where did you get this idea and where did I say it? What I disagreed with was Geejay's characterization of the demand for expensive ZAR which I do not believe is remotely correct. Most of the demand for scarcer and higher priced ZAR comes locally from your market and to some limited extent probably from expats now living elsewhere. This is what I was challenging because I don't believe there is any evidence whatsoever that foreigners in any number of consequence are generally interested in buying expensive coins from elsewhere, whether ZAR or otherwise. It is hardly "negative" and I don't see anything in your last two replies to refute this claim I made. That you do not like this opinion which I think is much better supported than what all of you would like to believe is a completely different consideration.

 

Second, for you to single out the Mandela issues which others (besides me) have identified as the only or even primary overpriced coins is disingenuous to say the least and it is not remotely correct. Would you like me to remind you of some of the coins you have highlighted which were also overpriced and terrible values? You certainly aren't even close to the worst to do this but you have definitely done it yourself and this is endemic on this forum. It isn't or wasn't just the Mandela issues which were overpriced. Disproportionately, it is all of the highest graded coins. Many of them are still overpriced. If you or others want to believe otherwise, you are free to do so and buy them. If you don't care about the financial aspects, then it doesn't matter whether they lose value or not and you certainly won't hear me telling you that you should not have bought it. I have occasionally bought overpriced coins myself with full knowledge of it and while I don't know if I have said so here, I can point you to my prior posts on the NGC Message Boards where I did. Going by your prior posting history and the coins you apparently buy, I don't see that you are going to buy them any more than I will.

 

Third, I agree that anyone should buy a coin at whatever price they want and never said they should not, either in this last post or in the past. I disagree that most of the bidders who do so for the more expensive coins are necessarily well informed. Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not. Most of the time, I don't believe they are financially because it should be obvious that the primary consideration in paying these prices is financial for the reasons I have provided before and from the historical comments on this forum which make it apparent that this is true. Because if collecting was the primary motive, the prices I have highlighted more often than not never would have been paid.

 

I have always respected your posts but just get worked up sometimes - not to worry - I am sorry if I offended you

 

As a matter of interest - I see this listing now on BoB

 

Ponde - ########## 1902 VELDPOND NGC MS 64 - Ultra Rare in this high Grade !!! ######## for sale in Vanderbijlpark (ID:179536828)

 

Then I recall this post by Georg a few years ago...

 

 

  1. VELDPOND PRICES
     
    Hello Collectors,
     
    I was recently asked by a collector what one should pay for an MS63 Veldpond. He also asked me whether the coin in the slab was authentic. Well all the authentic Veldponde have a 9 that has a sharp incurve to the "O" of the 9 compared to all the Forgeries made in my view and that is the quickest test as to authenticity. All Mint State coins except one that I know of have a slash just above the "Z" as well.
     
    Heritage Auctions had a number of Veldponde on offer last year - in such a live international auction, one can get an idea of what is reasonable to pay for such a coin - all prices inclusive of buyers premium.
     
    Lot 22924 Jan 4 2010 MS63 $48,875
    Lot 22633 Jan 4 2010 MS64 $54,625
    Lot 22923 Jan 4 2010 MS61 $34,500
    Lot 22922 Jan 4 2010 AU55 $21,850
    Lot 7399 Aug 5 1998 MS63 $2,415
     
    I included the last price fetched for the MS63 coin - it reflects a 20 times increase in price over 12 years - an increase of 166% per annum!!! Just in case anybody is short of confidence in the high end ZAR market.
     
    Quality,low mintage and story line fetch their price in the end.
     
    Geejay

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jwither

Pierre,

 

I wasn't offended by your post and I didn't mean to be harsh. I tend to write in a tone which sounds harsh but I promise I am actually not like this at all in person. And I also apologize if I am repetitive with the points in my posts. I will attempt to keep it in mind in the future.

 

But surely you must see the point I made in my last post. For anyone who really wants to pay any price for any coin, I say go ahead and do it. It is their money and as long as they do it with full knowledge, I don't see any problem with it.

 

However, I absolutely do not believe that most of the buyers of the more expensive coins do so for collecting purposes, certainly not from the historical posts on this forum. There isn't much activity here but in the past, the comments I read indicate to me that collectors in your country don't really understand why the South African pricing structure is "out of whack" and isn't normal at all. However, since "groupthink" is a very common human trait, most just "go with the flow" without questioning it.

 

The price structure in your market isn't normal at all. The United States isn't normal either but it is actually a lot more normal than yours, despite the much higher price level. It is actually all other markets where TPG is not preferred that are normal, except as they have been distorted by US buyers and US practices.

 

Additionally, if I see comments which attempt to provide unsubstantiated evidence to support the financial aspects of collecting, I am going to point it out because people need to have an unbiased view which I don't think exists here at all. I wasn't trying to pick on Geejay though it might seem I do it a lot, but this is only because the two of you are about the only ones aside from me who still post here with any regularity.

 

This is why I wrote my commentary on collecting by foreigners. The first topic explaining why they do not and aren't going to collect ZAR like all of you do at the same prices. And the second, to show that there isn't anything unsual about it at all. I believe these two topics provide a far more balanced view than any claim implying foreigners are interested in buying the more expensive South African coins at anything other than massive discounts to your local prices..

 

On your last post, I also find Geejay's comments misleading, though he might not have intended it. It implies that the trend at the time was somehow indicative of the future. I don't know if he meant that or believed it and he can answer for himself. But I definitely believe many others on this forum and maybe in your country did generically just because many of the coins are unsually scarce or rare versus others. There wasn't any reason to believe it then and I cannot think of a single reason to believe it now or in the future either. These coins (highest priced ZAR and Union) were and are among the most expensive and in my opinion, relatively overpriced coins in the world. I thought this then (in 2010 when those auctions took place) and I still think the same now, though the value proposition has improved somewhat.

Edited by jwither

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jwither
I am totally lost on this forum - All I see is sticky posts - how do one see the non-sticky posts?

 

Why don't BoB just delete 90% of the stikeys so that we can carry on with subjects like this one?

 

Pierre

 

 

Go to the bottom of the page and there is an option to change the view. It is a drop down list where you can see topics for the last, day week, etc

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admin
Go to the bottom of the page and there is an option to change the view. It is a drop down list where you can see topics for the last, day week, etc

 

Hi jwither,

 

Thank you. When one clicks on a forum e.g. Coins and Notes (for the Numismatist), you are supposed to see all the threads in that forum by default.

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jwither

Assessing demand for high priced ZAR ($10,000 USD or more)

In my prior estimates, I am assuming the active collector base in South Africa is between 5,000 and 10,000 for ZAR, Union and RSA combined. Is this correct? I do not know but I don’t see how it can be substantially higher. Even at 10,000, if my 300-500 estimate for the higher spending “serious” ZAR collector population is too low and its between 500 and 1000, this implies an abnormally large proportion though its possible the typical collector in South Africa is relatively more affluent than in the US because the base is so much smaller. Or more likely, a disproportionate percentage of “investors” exist as I said many times which is why prices have declined substantially since YE 2011.

 

In reviewing the census counts, the 1874 Burgess pond and veldpond have a combined NGC and PCGS population of about 250 with an unknown number of duplicates, details coins and others yet to be graded. This appears to be approximately 50% of the ZAR census total at my $10,000+ price point with the others including “patterns”, gold ½ pond and pond mostly in MS, some 1892 proofs and a few of the highest grade silver and bronze. Excluding the Burgess and veldpond, the remaining gold are disproportionately concentrated in the 1892 SS pond, 1893 ½ pond and 1898/99 overstamp.

 

Since the veldpond is by far the most popular coin in your country, its possible that a large number of non-collectors own it. If they do, it is irrelevant to all others because there is no evidence that any (much less all) of them are pursuing the rest of the expensive coins anyway. If this was remotely true, then the price level of the others should be much higher because in better grades, the veldpond is actually more common. In addition to non-collectors, some low but noticeable percentage might be owned by foreigners.

 

The Burgess pond supply is much lower but it’s a lot more expensive. I also don’t see it having the stature where as many non-collectors will really want it. If more own it than I believe, a disproportionate percentage must be speculators who own one or both coins. Many collectors may also have acquired it along time ago when it was much cheaper and never sold it. Foreigners probably also own some low but maybe noticeable percentage.

 

Foreigners might own some of the more expensive “patterns” and 1892 proofs, but I doubt many. I can see that a few might have an interest in the Burgess and Kruger but not really the others at the same prices you do. I make this comment not really believing any of the most expensive are owned by foreigners because of the price level but some have in the past, such as Royle Baldwin as illustrated on the NGC website maybe five years ago and King Farouk with the “Single 9” pond. I believe foreigners buy the pennies and 2 Pence bronze but at a cost of maybe up to $3,000 or slightly more. I see noreason whatsoever why they would have bought the Heritage PR-66 BN of whatever issue recently sold for about $14,000.

 

Of the approximately 200+ remaining coins in the combined census worth $10,000+, my suspicion is one of these two scenarios or a combination of both. First, many of them are concentrated in the same collections such as the recently sold Mitchell and Bakewell, though of course, these are now dispersed. Second, many others were also acquired a longtime ago at much lower prices and still held. I believe this especially applies to the 1893 ½ pond and 1892 SS pond though I cannot prove it.

 

I don’t believe the 1898/99 pond has enough prominence elsewhere where anyone other than an expatriate will want it anywhere near current prices. There are hundreds of well known coins or world class rarities which sell for less or a lot less that are considered better to most who are aware of both. This is even more true of the 1893 ½ pond and 1892 SS pond which don’t have anything more to distinguish them with a foreigner than the 1894 ½ pond previously used in my other topic as an example.

 

So taking into consideration what I just explained, the population of two dozen or somewhat more (as in maybe 25 to as many as 40 buyers) seems reasonable for the supply, excluding the veldpond and Burgess pond.

Edited by jwither

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Pierre_Henri
Assessing demand for high priced ZAR ($10,000 USD or more)

In my prior estimates, I am assuming the active collector base in South Africa is between 5,000 and 10,000 for ZAR, Union and RSA combined. Is this correct? I do not know but I don’t see how it can be substantially higher. Even at 10,000, if my 300-500 estimate for the higher spending “serious” ZAR collector population is too low and its between 500 and 1000, this implies an abnormally large proportion though its possible the typical collector in South Africa is relatively more affluent than in the US because the base is so much smaller. Or more likely, a disproportionate percentage of “investors” exist as I said many times which is why prices have declined substantially since YE 2011.

 

In reviewing the census counts, the 1874 Burgess pond and veldpond have a combined NGC and PCGS population of about 250 with an unknown number of duplicates, details coins and others yet to be graded. This appears to be approximately 50% of the ZAR census total at my $10,000+ price point with the others including “patterns”, gold ½ pond and pond mostly in MS, some 1892 proofs and a few of the highest grade silver and bronze. Excluding the Burgess and veldpond, the remaining gold are disproportionately concentrated in the 1892 SS pond, 1893 ½ pond and 1898/99 overstamp.

 

Since the veldpond is by far the most popular coin in your country, its possible that a large number of non-collectors own it. If they do, it is irrelevant to all others because there is no evidence that any (much less all) of them are pursuing the rest of the expensive coins anyway. If this was remotely true, then the price level of the others should be much higher because in better grades, the veldpond is actually more common. In addition to non-collectors, some low but noticeable percentage might be owned by foreigners.

 

The Burgess pond supply is much lower but it’s a lot more expensive. I also don’t see it having the stature where as many non-collectors will really want it. If more own it than I believe, a disproportionate percentage must be speculators who own one or both coins. Many collectors may also have acquired it along time ago when it was much cheaper and never sold it. Foreigners probably also own some low but maybe noticeable percentage.

 

Foreigners might own some of the more expensive “patterns” and 1892 proofs, but I doubt many. I can see that a few might have an interest in the Burgess and Kruger but not really the others at the same prices you do. I make this comment not really believing any of the most expensive are owned by foreigners because of the price level but some have in the past, such as Royle Baldwin as illustrated on the NGC website maybe five years ago and King Farouk with the “Single 9” pond. I believe foreigners buy the pennies and 2 Pence bronze but at a cost of maybe up to $3,000 or slightly more. I see noreason whatsoever why they would have bought the Heritage PR-66 BN of whatever issue recently sold for about $14,000.

 

Of the approximately 200+ remaining coins in the combined census worth $10,000+, my suspicion is one of these two scenarios or a combination of both. First, many of them are concentrated in the same collections such as the recently sold Mitchell and Bakewell, though of course, these are now dispersed. Second, many others were also acquired a longtime ago at much lower prices and still held. I believe this especially applies to the 1893 ½ pond and 1892 SS pond though I cannot prove it.

 

I don’t believe the 1898/99 pond has enough prominence elsewhere where anyone other than an expatriate will want it anywhere near current prices. There are hundreds of well known coins or world class rarities which sell for less or a lot less that are considered better to most who are aware of both. This is even more true of the 1893 ½ pond and 1892 SS pond which don’t have anything more to distinguish them with a foreigner than the 1894 ½ pond previously used in my other topic as an example.

 

So taking into consideration what I just explained, the population of two dozen or somewhat more (as in maybe 25 to as many as 40 buyers) seems reasonable for the supply, excluding the veldpond and Burgess pond.

 

Thanks for a great post - will leave comment after Easter - on our way to Onrus

 

Pierre

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geejay50
What negative comments are you referring to? Wouldn't happen to be because I disagree with the lopsided sentiments which are always attempting to promote higher prices would it?

.

 

Ernesto,

 

I highlight really scarce highest quality coins and their prices that will always everywhere in the world carry a much higher price tag than lower quality coins. This apparent lopsidedness to use your word is precisely what drives the interest in numismatics. There is nothing wrong with highlighting perfection in a sea of mediocrity. The Marxist may not like it and call it names like bourgeois , elitist or whatever but there you have it.

 

If you think our coins are only bought by South Africans you are wrong. I have recently sold South African and Southern Rhodesian coins on ebay to mostly Russian and Chinese buyers. How many of our coins have you sold internationally?

 

I live in a very different country to you. We have a government that is unashamedly corrupt and has not yet been tested and voted out of power at the ballot box by a strong opposition. Impressions are that fraud and or violence will keep them in power. High value coins with third party grading are one way of holding assets. If you find our high end prices unrealistic then hear what I say. Perhaps your native Bolivia from where you come from has a similar background to us.

 

Geejay

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

Geejay,

 

If you actually believe what you wrote, you don’t know much about collecting elsewhere, especially the United States. I can’t tell you the specifics of how collectors think outside of the US and South Africa, but I can assure you it isn’t consistent with the comments on this forum.

 

Your claim that interest in the most expensive coins is what drives interest in numismatics isn’t accurate, plain and simple. Obviously, many collectors (but not necessarily most) aspire to and would like to buy the rarest coins (which in most countries, certainly is not evaluated by the TPG grade), but if your claim was an accurate description of other countries, then collecting in the United States and elsewhere where the participation is much broader would have the same level of popularity it apparently does in your country. This comment actually supports my claims much better than yours though you apparently don’t realize it.

 

I agree with you that your sentitments reflect the majority opinion of those who post on this board but if it is true in your country generally, this along with an outsized emphasis on the financial aspects is why collecting in your country is not as popular as you would like, this forum is as active as a morgue and to the extent it remains true, collecting in your country isn’t going anywhere.

 

How exactly can this comment be true when most collectors cannot remotely afford them? The fact of the matter is most collectors are actually most interested in the coins they can afford to buy and collect, not those they cannot. What don’t you see about this and why would you think most collectors think otherwise? This idea doesn’t even make any sense. It’s only “investors” and those who are primarily interested in making money off of them who disproportionately share the opinion you expressed which is exactly what I believe is more important to the disproportionate percentage in your country who buy the more expensive ZAR and Union coins since TPG came to dominate in your country.

 

If you believe this is true anywhere else, why don’t you or anyone else here go read the comments on PCGS, NGC, Coin Talk or any other US coin forum? Or those in other countries which I don’t? In these three US coin forums, only a very small minority of posts are about the most expensive coins for the exact reason I gave. Most collectors aren’t interested in coins they don’t buy and cannot afford. In the past, I have suggested that others here learn how US collectors think since South African numismatics follows US practices. I don’t believe anyone either has done it or has any interest in doing it because disproportionately, most would just rather believe what they do now, whether it makes any sense or not.

 

I also disagree with your comment about “perfection” in a “sea of mediocrity”. As I have already explained, the actual quality difference between the most expensive and highest grade coins and those one or even several grades lower on the Sheldon scale is either much less than what you claim or in many instances, completely trivial. The only reason anyone (including you) believes it is because of money. I know that you are never going to agree with this and most others who post on this forum won’t either and once again, it is because of money. You and anyone else here can believe it just as many do in the United States but the idea is a farce which is why I state it is one.

 

As to foreign buyers,I never said “none”. That is a literalist interpretation of my comments even though in two other topics, I went in great detail explaining what I actually meant. Of course some do, so what? Do you have any evidence or arguments other than your anecdotal experience to refute any of the claims I made? If you do, then what exactly is it?

 

I already stated that there are expatriates buying the more expensive coins and some unknown number disproportionately buying lower or moderately priced issues. This claim of yours doesn’t contradict anything I wrote at all.

 

As I already stated under the topic “Why is the ZAR Coin market so low currently”, there are far more buyers of other coinage than South African by those who don’t live in these countries either. This still doesn’t change anything I claimed and your personal experience doesn’t refute what I claimed either.

 

As for my sales, I am no longer an active seller and have’t sold hardly anything in the last four years. I still have some South African coins I wish I had sold but I didn’t, it isn’t worth selling them now and so I just keep them. Since I sold practically all of my better ones, few are left which any of you would have an interest in anyway.

 

Lastly, on your comments about assets protection, I have already addressed this topic several times. I have already told you that coins (regardless of origin) are a very poor wealth preservation or asset protection vehicle and explained the alternatives which are better for this purpose. You ignore these comments and the only reason I can see that you do is because it is contrary to your personal preference. I presume it is contrary to your personal preference because of the financial commitment you already have in your collection which is why we disagree on this subject disproportionately across the board.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

April Auction highlights at Heritage Auction Galleries

 

I think it is necessary to make some comment on the above auction results as many collectors will otherwise not have a record of these coins many of which will not be seen again in such grade. The US Dollar price represents hammer price plus buyers premium, the price in Rands (R11.7/USD plus 14% SA VAT)

 

1896 Shilling MS63 NGC (pop 2 ) $17,625 (R237,091)

1897 Halfpond MS63 NGC $14,100 (R188,065)

1898 Pond MS64 $3525 (R47,016)

1898 Pond MS63 $2232.50 (R29,7704)

1926 HalfCrown MS61 PCGS and one of only 3 coins in MS (NGC & PCGS) $22,325 (R297,770)

1923 Sovereign PF63 NGC $5875 (R78,360)

 

1890 Griquatown Pattern PF63CA NGC in Nickel - Unique Coin and not yet on Pop Report - $21,150 (R282,098)

 

1893 German East Africa 2Rupie MS64 NGC $6756 (R90,111)

1893 German East Africa 2Rupie MS63 NGC $4465 (R59,554)

 

I wont pretend that the above is comprehensive but I think they represent some of the top coins on offer for South African Collectors. Their prices are obviously a function of the needs of bidders and market availability at this point in time.

 

Geejay

Edited by geejay50

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geejay50
1894 Halfpond MS63 on ebay $12,750

 

 

So whilst we can talk about depression in prices of some areas of our market, we must not lose sight of where real value lies and the money that will become available to pay for it. The Mandela bubble did not help but tarnish prices elsewhere.

 

My thoughts

 

Geejay

 

Hi Guys,

 

The above coin is now for sale on www.coinvault.com by Clarke Smith of California at $15,000

 

The foreign interest in high end SA coinage dates far back . We have had big names in the world of coinage like Louis Eliasberg, Jerome Remick, Ford, Arielle Collection, J J Pittman to name but a few who made substantial investments in our country's rich coin heritage in the past. Some of them have left their illustrious names on the third party capsules as shown.

 

I personally went to Madrid in 2009 to attend an unbelievable auction held by Cayon in the Ritz Hotel (opposite the Prado Museum) where a raw ungraded top quality ZAR Proof Set including Gold outshone every other of the 5000 lots from the rest of the world. The price went for around R2 Million and it was a price that made the whole auctionroom stop ,stand up and clap.The bidders were from London, Canada and New York. ONE COULD BE VERY PROUD OF BEING A SOUTH AFRICAN THAT DAY !!!! We were offered free Tapas and drinks afterwards by Juan Cayon himself at a really top restaurant.

 

Our high end coins are very well received internationally and who buys them is a mere matter of who has money. They are an excellent international store of value. Third party grading by NGC and PCGS IS the international benchmark everywhere in the world.

 

My thoughts.

 

Geejay

58f5a75273874_1889CGHPatternPennySP64RDEliasbergLogo.jpg.ec4c3d3415faecf6dd3c458fcac43365.jpg

58f5a75278213_1902VeldpondAU58RemickCollectionLogo.jpg.312d0bf485c3c81b3804d2f9257f266a.jpg

58f5a7527ca9b_1935HalfcrownPostNCSMS63Logo.jpg.0aad70f9e586c204c20a4284abdb5a40.jpg

58f5a7528207f_1898PondPittmanLogo.jpg.97b2f03da68257c83c13bccc9d05e463.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

Geejay,

 

Since I know you are providing these comments as a counterclaim to mine, I provide a response here.

 

Nothing you wrote above or in any prior post refutes any claim I have made. That this one dealer (Clark Smith) who deals in "world" gold coins bought this one coin doesn't change it since this is no different than NEN doing so and many here already know that they have sold this type of coin in the past as I already admitted in my prior posts.

 

Neither does your anecdotal experience at the Cayon auction. What you didn't mention of course is that outside of Heritage and British auctions such as St James and DNW, this is the only foreign auction for years that had any noticeable selection of these coins at all. Anyone can verify this claim I made by looking on SixBid.

 

The same applies to someone like Eliasberg. In his world coinage, how many of these coins did he actually own? A handful out multiple thousands of what are now expensive coins? Do you even know? Moreover, given that they were so much cheaper over 50 years ago when he owned or bought them and the value of his collection, it says nothing at all about what someone else will pay now and how many will do so.

 

To go back to the original source of this particular disagreement from your comments on the 1894 1/2 pond, I never said there weren't any buyers outside of South Africa for ZAR in this price range. What I was challenging is your claim that the market for expensive ZAR outside of South Africa is "deep" because it is not and the reason I believe you made this unsubstantiated claim is because you are attempting to promote these coins to anyone who reads this forum. It is apparent there are some buyers from elsewhere and i explained in my subsequent posts that though we cannot know exactly who they are, the most probable source is primarily (NOT EXCLUSIVELY) expatriates because these are the most logical candidates to buy them.

 

If you think any of my claims I made in my subsequent posts aren't accurate and the evidence is so apparent, given the detail I provided, you should certainly be able to provide something better than what you just did.

 

To take but one which you should be able to refute if you know it is inaccurate, I estimated that the number of buyers for ZAR valued above $10,000 excluding the veld pond and Burgess pond is in the range of maybe 25 to 40. This is based upon the current census population for all ZAR which appear to be worth more than this amount which is about 250 coins, excluding duplicates, details coins and others yet to be graded.

 

If you think this number is too low, what is your estimate?

 

Even if I am way off and it happens to be double my high estimate, what gives you the idea that any large proportion of these buyers aren't from South Africa or expatriates? Do foreigners find these coins so compelling but not others which are disproportionately so much cheaper but frequently better known? I ask because outside of the series I profiled in a related post, disproportionately foreigners aren't buying them either.

 

There is and never has been a "shortage" of money to buy these coins, not in South Africa and not elsewhere. Those who can afford them and want them do so and those who don't want to, do not. I am one of these people who can afford to buy these coins in isolation or on occassion. I don't buy them because I have better things to do with my money, just as most others do.

 

Lastly, I also dispute your claim that NGC and PCGS are the "benchmark of the world". They are for South African and US coins but any claim to extrapolate it to collectors in other countries is unsubstantiated. One of my primary arguments against your claims which is undeniable fact is that most collectors outside the US DO NOT prefer TPG today. South Africa is an outlier. You cannot dispute this and no one else can either. Acceptance varies elsewhere and with some individual coins and series, those who prefer TPG are able to set the price level anyway, even where most collectors don't like it.

 

What this means to your claim though is that for the coins where most collectors don't like TPG but the price level is inflated by this practice, disproportionately (by an overwhelming lopsided percentage) they aren't going to pay the required price to buy them. This is true of US coins and given the evidence I have already provided, there is a much better reason to believe it applies to both ZAR and Union than your claim.

Edited by jwither

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zarmaniac

Can you please explain to me what a Burgess Pond is Jwither?

Thomas Francois BURGERS

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jwither
Can you please explain to me what a Burgess Pond is Jwither?

Thomas Francois BURGERS

 

Yes, sorry I didn't check the spelling. This is the coin I have been referencing.

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jwither

Market Statistics and My Additional Assumptions

 

As a follow-up to my last comments on foreign buying of the more expensive South African coins, I include data from the Heritage archives and then extrapolations using my "guesstimates".

 

First, here is the Heritage data:

 

# of US coins sold @ $10,000+ USD - approximately 39,000

# of "world" coin @ $10,000+ - 3355

# of ancients @ $10,000+ - 622

# of South African coins @ $10,000+ - 96

South Africa rank in "world" coins @ $10,000+ - 8th

Countries ahead of SA - UK, China, Russia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Australia

 

Now, some additional assumptions:

 

# of US active collectors - approximately 2,000,000

# of US collectors buying $10,000+ coins - approximately 10,000

# of US based collectors buying "world" coins @ $10,000+ - approximately 500

# of US based collectors buying SA coins @ $10,000+ - in the vicinity of five to 10

% of SA coins sold outside of SA by Heritage @ $10,000+ - at least 50% if not a lot more

 

Propensity of US collectors to buy coins @ $10,000+ from:

UK - Very high (at least 50% if not a lot more)

China - Moderate (maybe 25%)

Russia - Moderate (maybe 25%)

Brazil - Very High (maybe as high as 75%)

Canada - Very High (at least 50%)

Mexico - Very High (probably at least 75%)

Australia - Above Average (maybe 25% to 50%)

South Africa - Low (maybe as much as 10% to 25%)

 

Now, I add my comments:

 

The % of US collectors @ $10,000+ is the same as my estimate for SA of as many as 50 (or 1/2%) out of 10,000. This is 25-40 for ZAR and maybe 10 more for Union and RSA combined.

 

Heritage raw data is not representative of the relative popularity across markets but probably is for those who prefer TPG. Previously, I ranked SA between #20 and #30 and I stick by that ranking.

 

My estimates of US buying from these eight countries is a function of 1) Apparent popularity of the market among US buyers 2) My assumptions of the development of these markets locally 3) Local preference for TPG.

 

To give an example of the above, I know SA coins are not very popular in the US for the reasons I already gave. Since it is not and I concurrently know that TPG dominates in your country, this is how I conclude most buyers are in your country.

 

For Brazil, I don't believe this market is developed. There are also a lot of Brazilian nationals in the US. This is how I conclude most of these expensive TPG coins are bought by US based collectors

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

Dutch and South African Coins in History

 

Hi ,

 

The history of South African coins did not start merely with 1874 Burgers Ponden , 1892 ZAR or even 1815 London Missionary Society Griqua Circulated Coins. Our coin history went way back to at least 1652 VOC ,Dutch coins or maybe into Ancient Phoenician times if one puts all the fragments of history together.

 

We must have some regard therefore for old 17th Century Dutch coinage and for some this means having a few of these in our collection.

 

The trouble for us collectors is that we share this common interest with the other colonies that were occupied by the VOC , a company that was the first privately owned mega-corporation in world history. It declared an annual dividend to its shareholders for almost all of its two centuries of existence. Good quality coins are almost impossible to source as they are sought after by collectors from USA, Australasia, Indonesia etc.

 

I would like to show you a scarce coin from Dutch history that is almost always found in poor condition. It is a 6 Stuiver also called a Ruiterschelling. The Six Stuivers came with different obverse designs but were all called 'Schellings' . Scheepjes with a Ship (commonest),Arend (eagle), Roos (with a rose), Hoodjes (hat) and Ruiter (Knight on Horse). The Meerestein wreck (circa 1702) off Jutten Island was found to have Schellings from 11 different Mints in Holland (Turner pg115). We are easily enthralled by the big coins that came off that wreck like the Silver Ducatons and Riders but tend to overlook the smaller denominations that also circulated in the Cape but are lost to numismatic history.

 

The coin shown is undoubtedly Mint State but the strike is extremely poor with gross wear on the die such that the lettering and rider are apparently worn.The Legend Reads: CONCORDIA RES PARVAE (Obverse) , MONO:ARG:CIV: ZUTPANIAE (Reverse) Coat of Arms of Zutphen - Antlers (Reverse) It is unique in graded form.

 

My thoughts

 

Geejay

58f5a75292fb2_16886StuiverZutphenRiderschillingMS63Logo.jpg.88a9f2968937675000bac0a964063d13.jpg

58f5a75297481_16886StuiverZutphenRiderschillingMS63Obv.jpg.6531664721c5cb0554448ffcb82fc142.jpg

58f5a7529bb4b_16886StuiverZutphenRiderschillingMS63Rev.jpg.0954910df1416e65a0c6754f79564fb5.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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geejay50

Hi again,

 

Herewith some pics of 6 Stuivers (Schellings) from the wreck of the Merestein (Jutten island 1702). I dont have a Hoedjes Schelling.?Was there one?

 

Geejay

58f5a752a0074_1674SchepjesschellingWestFrieslandObv.jpg.34dd7b88345408a8b2a5e6489ec018f2.jpg

58f5a752a660b_1674SchepjesschellingWestFrieslandRev.jpg.49039116876cf16850eccfd594854d2f.jpg

58f5a752aac73_1675ArendschellingCampenObv.jpg.b1f7567290c94af9c6cc45fad290ae9f.jpg

58f5a752af46d_1675ArendschellingCampenRev.jpg.6e942f62260ee723322db3a34a318821.jpg

58f5a752b3ef4_1680RoosSchellingWestFrieslandObv.jpg.a5ab8f85f11512efc8c1255bc3663f9f.jpg

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jwither
Good quality coins are almost impossible to source as they are sought after by collectors from USA, Australasia, Indonesia etc.

 

 

The most likely reason you have difficulty finding these coins in the quality you want is because there aren't very many of them. Something I might add, which is not unusual from this period at all. I am certainly not familiar with all 17th century issues but the only ones I know which have any availability in higher grades are the 1696 and 1697 English 6D and some German states and Austrian states talers. I own a 1682 Spain (Segovia mint) NGC MS-63 2 reales. In lower grades, it is relatively common as I suspect these are. In equivalent grade, I recall one other which was not graded.

 

Why are these coins scarce in better grades?

 

First, generically, the availability of coins in earlier periods is usually much lower than later ones by a large multiple and probably because only a few collectors were around to preserve them. European coins from the late 18th century and later seem to be readily available in high grades but the earlier ones far less.

 

Second, the mintages of the smaller coins in particular were low or very low for a variety of reasons. They were primarily used locally and not in international trade as the cobs, pillars, 3 guilders and silver ducatons. They might have had larger mintages if struck intermittently but lower ones if annually, as not all countries strike coins every year or at least every denomination. The population in the territory were they were struck was also low or very low by today's standards, so there was no need to strike a large number.

 

The population in late 17th century England I believe was less than six or seven million. In the Netherlands, probably a third of this number. When these coins were struck, there were multiple provinces each with their own coinage just as occurred in what is now modern Germany, Hapsburg Austria, the Italian states and Switzerland. The population of these Dutch provinces was possibly in the vicinity of 100,000 (or slightly more) in a geographic area smaller than the greater Atlanta, GA area where I live now which numbers 5.5MM.

 

To provide a point of comparison, the Bolivian pillar minors struck from 1767 to 1770 have reported mintages on the low end of about 30,000 to about 325,000. But they were only struck for four years unlike these Dutch coins and I suspect the mintages were this high partly to "catch up" with demand since they were the first milled coinage. Also, these coins remained in circulation for a long time, for over a century from what I know which is why most Bolivian pillar minors are rare.even in average circulated grades.

 

Next, as for the demand for these coins, I don't believe there are very many collectors in the Netherlands who prioritize them, much less anywhere else.

 

If the US has an active collector base of as many as 2MM per my pror post, the Netherlands might have 30,000 on the low end to 50,000 on the upper end. The US population is about 20 times as high and I don't believe the participation in the Netherlands is anywhere near as large. Adjusted for population, 100,000 is the same ratio using my US assumption and I believe it is less, like maybe one-half to one-third.

 

Now, how many coins exist in the Dutch series? My estimate is at least 2,000 since 1570 (when I believe independence was achieved from Spain) and adding earlier issues previously circulating in what is now Dutch territory plus colonial issues, maybe another 1,000. That is a lot of variety for what is likely a relatively low collector base.

Is the base higher than i believe? Maybe, but if it is, the price level certainly does not indicate it. By European standards, I consider it "respectable" but it is low compared to Britain, Russia, Germany and Switzerland. It also seems to be lower than France and I don't think those prices are strong at all. I consider them disproportinately weak.

 

The other possibility the price level is relatively low is that many of the coins are quite common, especially those post 1815 which are those I suspect are the most widely collected along with the earlier crown sized 3 guilder and silver ducaton and gold trade coinage.

 

As for foreign buyers, I rate the number from Indonesia and any other former colonies as effectively zero. There is either limited or no organized collecting at all in Indonesia and I don't see them having any preference for Dutch coinage whatsoever anymore than the majority population does in Zimbabwe for Southern Rhodesia or in your country for ZAR and Union.

 

I also don't believe there is hardly any demand from buyers in the United States. Dutch coins generally don't appear to be that popular here. Obviously, there are some buyers generically and yes, I do see Dutch coins in dealer inventory but not much more really than ZAR; only somewhat and its predominantly the crown sized silver and gold trade coinage. For the coin you profiled in your post, however many collectors exist, it is certainly far fewer than the Spanish colonial pillar minors I collect and there aren't many either.

 

My suspicion is that most foreign demand comes from expatriates. I also believe (but do not actually know) that collectors in Belgium and maybe some in France and Germany will prioritize some of these coins over others outside their home country. An example I believe are coins issued during the Napoleonic occupation by collectors in France.

 

In the US, there tens of thousands (if not more) who buy coins like this one randomly but they have no preference for Dutch coins or this type either. Its my opinion these are the primary buyers of the moderately priced (by US standards) Dutch graded coins sold by Heritage or US dealers but the frequency of their actual buying is very low.

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Pierre_Henri
Hi again,

 

Herewith some pics of 6 Stuivers (Schellings) from the wreck of the Merestein (Jutten island 1702). I dont have a Hoedjes Schelling.?Was there one?

 

Geejay

 

Strange you should mention the Hoedjes-Schelling.

In 1978, the Africana Commemorative Mint issued the Cape Heritage set commemorating some coins that circulated in South Africa in the very early years of our country.

 

The crown-size coins were struck in sterling silver and plated in gold. They were truly beautiful pieces.

 

Thirty coins were issued and one of them was the Hoedjes-Schelling – see the third picture – a little booklet was written by Professor MTW Arnheim, the then Head of the Departmentof Classics at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Hoedjesschellinga.jpg.9bf37ede8da19509bbfca5cf25da66df.jpg

Hoedjesschellingb.jpg.d0b6d7ac7b32bb8033b2b42a8522ed68.jpg

Hoedjesschelling.jpg.07002d2a5d999e02fc461a30deb435d0.jpg

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geejay50

Thanks Pierre,

 

You have shed some light on the Hoedjes-Schelling and its origin. I looked it up in Krauser DVD Catalogue on the 17th Century and under Zeeland, it was minted in unknown quantities in 12 separate years between 1672 and 1700. The explanation of the abbreviated Latin Inscription by Professor Arnheim is of interest too. The "Freedom" the Dutch were referring to obviously referred to the freedom won at huge cost to life and property from the 80 years war against the Spanish (1568-1648).The latter is on reading less likely for in 1672, the Netherlands was invaded by a number of foreign forces ie English French (naval) and the Bishop of Munster from Germany whose armies besieged the town of Groningen.

 

I also remember seeing the Snaphaan- Schelling quite frequently in a batch of coins taken off the Merestein and that was only minted in a few years.

 

For collectors, a VOC coin that is very often seen and almost always in poor condition is the Copper Duit and Half Duit. The finding of a gradeable coin or if you are very lucky, an uncirculated one can be regarded as being very rare.Of course there were huge numbers made from varying provincial mints both for use in the Netherlands and in trade by the VOC overseas.

 

Interesting that despite the seemingly weak central government of the Netherlands in the 17th Century as reflected in the coins being made from both separate and even tiny provincial mints and the VOC, the country as a whole prospered unbelievably and won major sea battles against much bigger countries like England and France (Professor Arnheim). The country therefore was fundamentally united behind its leaders despite the diversity reflected in their coinage.

58f5a752c8688_1755VOCCopperDuitHollandiaAU58Logo.jpg.66d39f75e2048d7b5cb6a45db577b959.jpg

58f5a752e42a6_1755VOCCopperDuitHollandiaAU58Obv.jpg.11dd715431e1ddb0fa1421d4a7233939.jpg

58f5a752e8e74_1755VOCCopperDuitHollandiaAU58Rev.jpg.ce8f84b3fa29f4f3031ecf99c636c938.jpg

58f5a752ee378_1739NetherlandsDuitHollandiaRev.jpg.513fd8319ad1685c75a88c970180807a.jpg

58f5a752f3676_1739NetherlandsDuitHollandiaObv.jpg.9605b0d57a4a3cf378591c856a1c8ffd.jpg

Edited by geejay50

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