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geejay50

Scarce Coin Watch

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JCO737

Thanks for shedding some light!!

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geejay50

Hi,

 

Some of you may have noticed that there are some high quality SA coins amongst the 114 so far listed at the September Heritage Auctions.

 

Some that caught my eye were as follows: PCGS SP64 Sammy Marks Tickey, AU50 1892 Single Shaft Pond, MS64 1874 Coarse Beard Burgers Pond and many more.

 

Geejay

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Guest Guest

Yup... the smart money is offloading while they can.

 

No need to tell you what I am buying.... a kilo of gold from the Perth Mint last week will (I believe) be a great investment.

 

Scott Balson

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qball
Yup... the smart money is offloading while they can.

 

No need to tell you what I am buying.... a kilo of gold from the Perth Mint last week will (I believe) be a great investment.

 

Scott Balson

 

Stick to the topic of coins....

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zarmaniac
Hi,

 

Some of you may have noticed that there are some high quality SA coins amongst the 114 so far listed at the September Heritage Auctions.

 

Some that caught my eye were as follows: PCGS SP64 Sammy Marks Tickey, AU50 1892 Single Shaft Pond, MS64 1874 Coarse Beard Burgers Pond and many more.

 

Geejay

 

Hi George

I think it is worth mentioning that the PCGS graded MS64 + Coarse Beard Burgerspond that is coming up for sale at Heritage, used to be in a SANGS slab graded as MS63.... It was sold by DNW earlier this year.

Werner

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jwither
Hi George

I think it is worth mentioning that the PCGS graded MS64 + Coarse Beard Burgerspond that is coming up for sale at Heritage, used to be in a SANGS slab graded as MS63.... It was sold by DNW earlier this year.

Werner

 

What is this supposed to show? That SANGS grades as well as or better than NGC and PCGS? Or that market perceived accurately graded SANGS coins of any meaningful value are going to be cracked out and end up in an NGC or PCGS holder so that they can be sold for more?

 

The first is debatable and ultimately meaningless. If it was meaningful, then the coin would still be in a SANGS holder now. I do not believe that anyone can show that most buyers (the lopsided majority) actually care what number is assigned on the holder aside from how it impacts the price. The second is something I pointed out in numerous posts well over a year ago.

 

The other thing I can point out is that though there are some quality coins in this sale, the number of those with a high value does not differ significantly from the prior year. It is certainly less than the Heritage sale of January 2012 at the peak of the SA coin market.

Edited by jwither

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jwither
I also have the 1953 in MS-65 and the 1960 (at least) in MS-64. The 1955 is scarcer than the 1960 but not really any more than the 1953, at least in the census. Previously, another 1953 in MS-65 sold for all of $15 on eBay. It was about a year or maybe 18 months ago. So while yes I think these coins are worth considering, I would not pay that kind of price or anywhere near it.

 

The same comments I made apply even more to the bronze. The coins you are describing are "grade rare" but this is no different than any other "conditional rarity". I do not consider any of these dates to be actually even scarce except in the narrow sense you describe.

 

Following up on my prior comments, the 2/ MS-64 I own is the 1958. NGC lists 30 in the census, with 17 in MS, mine as the single MS-64 and two in MS-65. PCGS lists a single MS-63 and one MS-64. It is a coin I bought raw either on eBay or from a dealer here in the United States, I do not remember.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

SCARCE UNION SHILLINGS

Hello all,

 

The title of this thread is Scarce Coin Watch and to be faithful to this, I would like to draw attention to certain (Queen Elizabeth) Union shillings that according to combined NGC and PCGS statistics are nearly as scarce as earlier Shillings which attract a premium from the Market. Only business strikes are considered.

 

These are the following :

 

1952 24 graded

1955 24 graded

1956 21 graded

1957 26 graded

 

By comparison

 

1926 17 graded

1944 13 graded

1946 21 graded

1947 26 graded

 

In years to come, it will be interesting to see if more of these Queen Elisabeth Shillings will be graded and in what grade.I dont see them being offered for sale over the last six months or so.

 

They do not fetch high prices YET !!! and are still affordable for a cash strapped collector/investor looking.

 

My feeling is - hang on to them,for whatever reason these coins have a low survival and the lag in the market will catch up soon.

 

At the moment, I have none to offer so this is not aimed at boosting my own sales.

 

Geejay

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Guest Guest
Yup... the smart money is offloading while they can.

 

No need to tell you what I am buying.... a kilo of gold from the Perth Mint last week will (I believe) be a great investment.

 

Scott Balson

 

As a true numismatist who's record speaks for itself when it comes to my love of and research on numismatic history I have to say my purchase a few weeks ago in early August was a GREAT investment!

 

Scott Balson

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jwither

Geejay,

 

Getting back to the subject of coins, I do not own the 1952 1/ but do own at least one MS example of each QEII 1/ date, all ungraded. I previously mentioned my one 1956 in a prior post and stated it is likely an MS-63. I now think that all of these coins are likely an MS-61 or MS-62 which would make them of little value today and I do not see them being worth much any time in the foreseeable future either.

 

My recollection is that the Coin Guide SA provides estimates of 200 MS for each of these dates which is consistent with the numbers I have provided in the past as minimums. Due to their current low value, I have no motive to sell or even grade mine and agree that anyone who owns them might as well keep them. However, I would not be a buyer in the current market paying substantial premiums for any of these coins in better grades, generally MS-64 or better.

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jwither

The Baldwin's September 26 catalogue went online today. LIke the DNW September 24 sale mentioned above, it also contains numeroous high grade specimens and quite a few of the scarcer dates.

 

Though it is a very low grade, this collection includes a 1931 half crown. Baldwin's grades it a "fine". I believe NGC or PCGS will more likely grade it G-4. The DNW 1931 Shilling came back as a G-4 and it appears much better than this coin.

 

A few other coins discussed in these pages which appear in both sales are the 1926 shilling (also mentioned above) and the 1946 6D. The Baldwin shilling I think is either a low grade AU or maybe an XF. There is a very noticeable scratch on the reverse. The 1946 6D in the Baldwin's sale appears to be as good as the one in DNW, and that one came back MS-64. So though the census population remains low for this con, that is two better MS coins in the space of a few months that have come "out of nowwhere". Though I do not think this increase is a big deal at all, for those who think otherwise, this is why I have warned against assuming that the census was or is complete. The high grade coins you see in this sale, there are going to be more of them out there, somewhere or anywhere. And there are also a few others that I have seen in prior sales that are less scarce but certainly among the finest known that I am not sure are in the census now. Specifically, those in the Noble Numismatics auction within the last year.

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Cold Sea

1931 Penny

 

A 1931 MS64BN PCGS graded penny sold for $2025.00 on ebay last night. The POP2 coin is a good example of the clashed die variety

 

 

58f5a74a9dc94_1931obv.jpg.03794338faac036e2e45d954035c1ec7.jpg

 

The current exchange rate makes it good for selling, but hurts when you're a buyer.

Edited by Cold Sea

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The parody of today's "money"

 

Cold Sea says....

The current exchange rate makes it good for selling, but hurts when you're a buyer.

In this global economy the price you pay for petrol, food, health and every other necessity of life is reflected by the exchange rate.

 

When I left S Africa in 1986 the Rand was close to parity with the Australian dollar - it is today close to ten rand to a single Au$.

 

For an overseas buyer BoB is a wonderful place to find bargains because the pendulum is swinging the wrong way for people in RSA.

 

What a shame we didn't stay on real money with gold and silver coins backing its value - the huge variations we all see on our own currencies would not be predicated by a few pulling the strings for their own benefit but be stable through the integrity of precious metal value represented in the coin you had in your pocket.

 

This is a great time for someone new to the hobby who lives outside S Africa to build a collection of old and rare union and Kruger coins but is near impossible for a similar person who resides in S Africa to build a collection.

 

Scott Balson

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jwither
A 1931 MS64BN PCGS graded penny sold for $2025.00 on ebay last night. The POP2 coin is a good example of the clashed die variety

 

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4763[/ATTACH]

 

The current exchange rate makes it good for selling, but hurts when you're a buyer.

 

I think you are making an assumption that is not necessarily supported. I do not know who the buyer of this coin was but usually especially for a Union coin, it is going to be someone in South Africa, If this is correct, then they are setting their bidding strategy thinking in Rand terms and not USD or any other foreign currency which means that there is no actual difference to a local (for those of you who live in SA) buyer. They do not benefit one way or the other. I know that this either makes no sense or is confusing but I make this comment because as a South African coin, the currency of reference is the Rand and not the USD or any other.

 

Now for a foreign buyer such as myself, yes. In this example, $2025 USD is about R20,000. Assuming for the sake of discussion that the same Rand price would exist in the recent past, then when the USD-ZAR rate was 7:1 instead of 10:1 as now, this coin would have been almost 50% more expensive to a foreign buyer.

 

What I am telling you is that if the USD-ZAR cross rate was as above in my example, foreign buyers are not likely to pay $3,000 then or R30,000 now for this coin simply because of the FX rate. I cannot say that none will but most will simply buy something else. Its what I have stated for myself many times because at the higher FX price, this coin is either less competitive or not competitive at all with other alternatives. Even though this is a coin I would like to own, I can buy many coins in my other series for either price which are likely better "investments" and definitely numismatically superior to a 1931 PCGS MS-64 BN 1D.

 

The example I gave above, the same reasoning applies to US coins for a buyer from outside the United States. If the USD depreciates versus the Rand or any other, it doesn't make any diffference to me or any collector in the US who collects them. Someone based in the US may pay more but there is no possibility of linking it to the FX rate one way or the other. The only possible difference might be in the proportion of buyers who do not use the USD (for US coins) or Rand (for ZAR and Union coins) as their currency of reference. Proportionately, there are or might be more foreign buyers of Union because the collector base is so small, but I do not believe it is significant in absolute terms.

Edited by jwither

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Cold Sea

Hi jwither,

 

If the coin was bought by an SA buyer bidding in Rand terms, and the benchmark price, if set in rands, is R20 000, then the future dollar based buyer would be buying cheap. If the benchmark price is $2000 and set in dollars, then the Dollar based buyer would still benefit and the future Rand based buyer would pay more. However, with continued depreciation of the Rand, this SA buyer (if indeed it was) would be able to sell at a rand profit by way of the FX. I think we are saying the same thing though. I am always reminded not to think in Rand terms when travelling or buying.

 

The "clashed die" pennies are in higher demand, and this one is a very good example. Even though the coins are sometimes referred to as minors, they still sell for decent prices.

 

Derick

Edited by Cold Sea
Trying to unconfuse myself

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jwither

Yes, i think we are saying the same thing. It just depends upon the assumptions used. In this example:

 

Current FX rate approximates 10 ZAR = 1 USD

At R20,000, this is about $2000 USD.

A few years ago, 7 ZAR = 1 USD

At R20,000, this approximates $3000

 

In the example above, the price is unchanged to the SA buyer but 1/3 less to the USD buyer such as myself. In theory because of this, I could bid or pay more than $2000 but less than $3000 and buy this coin "cheap". How often it happens, I do not know. I can tell you that I recall what many SA coins sold for in USD terms but virtlually none as priced in ZAR. The reason is that it is not relevant to me.

 

in actuality, to a foreign buyer such as myself, since late 2011, I have benefited from both a depreciating ZAR and the decline in the ZAR price of these coins. To give you an example, a 1934 NGC AU-58 KGV 2/6 sold for R3200+ this past week, an absolutely pitiful price for a coin this scarce. If paying for coins that I buy on BoB weren't such a pain, I would bid on more fo them. Instead, I will save my money and use it to buy a few in the upcoming DNW and Baldwin's auctions. I'm not going to bid on it, but I expect the DNW MS 1934 2/6 to sell for as much as 10 times this coin and yes, I expect a SA collector to buy it.

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jwither

Here are my observations of the DNW results which closed on Tuesday. I do not have access to the catalogue as I write this and the website's search feature is absolutely abysmal (in the event that anyone from DNW is reading this) so i am going off of memory.

 

The results were mostly as I expected. A few strong prices, mostly weak or average ones and a substantial number of unsold lots due to unrealistic opening bids or reserves. The auction report feature of the site does work and it lists 71 unsold lots out of 324 which is over 20%. I have not compared it to prior DNW (or other ) auctions with substantial SA offerings, but it seems very high to me.

 

Union coins of note include the 1927 NGC MS-64 2/ at 6800, 1931 NGC MS-65 RB 1D at 3000, 1934 NGC MS-62 2/6 at 2800 and the 1933 MS (forget the exact grade) 2/ at or around 2800 (maybe 2200).

 

There also quite a few other MS NGC 2/ and 2/6 which sold in the vicinity of 1000 to 1500 which I suspect is probably less than what most think these coins are actually worth. I do not remember the price on the 1925 2/6 NGC MS-62. I presume it was similar to the 1934.

 

There were also many coins that I thought sold for weak or very weak prices. A 1928 NGC MS-63 BN 1D sold for 200, a 1927 NGC MS-64 BN 1D sold for 450 and the 1946 NGC AU-58 1/ sold for 390. The latter price by the way, only approximately 9% of the NGC MS-63 which sold for about R70000 and was the subject of much "hoopla" on this forum last year. The MS-63 appeared to have a much better strike but the quality is and was nowhere near enough to explain the price difference.

 

The 1926 NGC AU-58 1/ sold for 1200 which was about twice what the AU-50 sold for on BoB recently. So much for either grade remotely being worth R50,000.

 

All of the above prices in GBP and do not include the buyer's fee.

 

Of the coins that did not sell, one was the 1946 NGC MS-64 6D. The estimate was 100 but I presume that the reserve was actually higher or much higher. This versus the $1000+ USD which the specimen on Heritage realized within the last 18 months. A high number of the other unsold lots I recall as being those which were not submitted for grading. As I said prior to the auction, the fact that they were not submitted was a "dead giveaway" that DNW apparently did not believe it made economic sense. Of these, I presume that they will grade AU-58 or low MS and since the dates are common, no knowledgeable collector was going to pay the estimates.

 

I did bid on a few lots but won only one. I used a "lowball" strategy intentionally, so I lost out but for the most part, do not care. i expect many of these to show up later on BoB and most likely for ridiculous or absurd ask prices which will not be paid and the coins will sit for months if not years unsold. I may attempt to buy some of them later if the prices reflect a semblance of reality.

Edited by jwither

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geejay50

Hi Ernesto and all,

 

I appreciate the feedback on the DNW auction and I agree with most of what you have said. I think DNW really did a good advertising of the auction and their computer side seems to have undergone a revamp for the better.

 

I dont want to repeat what you have said but some comments I can make are the following.In General,there were unusually scarce coins in this auction that have never seen the public domain up until now and collectors and speculators in the know were really given a few choice offerings in a thin market. CoinguideSA has already uploaded a lot of the prices fetched so we can have a benchmark for the future - the more data they load the better the guide to graded prices.

 

Some of the exceptional coins on offer and prices I noticed - please note that the 20% buyers premium must be added to the rand pound factor to get to the actual price so multipy by 20 to get the price in Rands :

 

1874 Burgerspond Finebeard MS61- 20,000 GBP

1896 Halfpond NGC MS61 - 3600GBP - never before has this been offered in MS and after the 1893 Halfpond it has become the next toughest Halfpond to get in MS (it has displaced the 1894 Halfpond)- I regard anything under R100,000 as a buyers bargain!!

1893 Halfpond PCGS AU50 - 8000GBP

1902 Veldpond MS63 with a slash - 15,000GBP on one bid - a price that seemed a bit low .

 

1934 Halfcrown NGC MS64 - 2800GBP - finest known at NGC - there are 11 in MS (PCGS & NGC) - never before offered in MS

1927 Florin MS64- 6900GBP - Pop1 - never before seen

1925 Halfcrown MS62 - 2400GBP

1924 Halfcrown MS64 and Pop1 at NGC-1650GBP on second run- a bargain for buyer I thought (1800 on first)- very seldom seen maybe once in the last 5 years

1934 Trial Shillings two different coins - both MS64 - 1300 and 1100 GBP - I thought these were lowish prices but the market must be just a few collectors.

1923 Penny MS65 Red Brown - Pop2 and extremely scarce in this colour variant (5 graded)- this was the market test for that colour as never has this been sold in public - hammer price 880GBP or about R17,600 - I thought a bit low.

1931 Penny MS65RED went for 3000GBP or about R60,000 as a pop1 of two graded that price compared well with the 1932 MS63 Penny that was sold on Bob recently.

1925 Halfpenny MS63RB one of just five graded fetched 1500GBP or about R30,000

I thought the 1926 Shilling AU58 and a pop3 coin fetched a low price at 1200 for such a nice grade.

 

A 1930 Sixpence MS64 fetched 2000GBP in strong bidding - desperately scarce (sold privately a year ago for a bargain of R20K!)

 

The 1942 Pattern Farthing (8 minted) at 1850GBP or R37,000 was the first public exposure to this coin (I have been offered this coin privately for around R40K)

 

It was nice to see the Republic 1962/65 Pattern series and I dont recall ever having seen both the 1963 Trial or Comittee series and the 1965 Type being offered in whole ungraded sets. The 1963 Set went unsold but was sold later privately for 1800GBP. Individual coins from both sets fetched decent prices - like the 1965 10cents MS66 with the funny Springbok received 880GBP ( a previous sale of this coin in 2009 fetched R9000 on Bob) The drab looking MS62BN 1965 2c Pattern A33 fetched 320 GBP or R6400 - (In 2009 an MS63 was sold for only R1610 on Bob or about 4 times less) I like these 1963 Patterns, they have a value rubbed out and a bigger value shown - THIS IS A REAL COIN TRIAL STRIKE and is in its roughness really what the concept is about.

 

 

This was also a first for the 1965 One Cent Proof Afrikaans legend (raw) not the thick flan variety - 4 graded only - which sold for 500GBP- a good price for the buyer given that a graded coin was sold by Randcoin on private sale for R20,000 a few years ago.

 

 

The most regretable withdrawal of the whole auction was the 1925 Wreath Threepence in AU58. This coin has never been seen for sale anywhere public and we needed a benchmark.

 

The S&Co set was similarly withdrawn and it has been some time since a set has been offered.

 

The market remains strong for top grades and we can take heart from this DNW auction that Numismatics is resilient to tough economic times.

 

Coinguide is up with the latest prices . Please remember that the price they give must have the 20% Buyers premium added just as they dont add SA VAT.

 

The organisers of DNW auctions need a big thanks for bringing us these excellent coins as I am sure many many hours of behind the scenes work must go into staging such an auction. They have shown us that Heritage is not the only place where top SA coins can be found and English Auction houses have a world class act as well. They dont sell Elvis Memorabilia and non Numismatic stuff but in dedicating themselves to coins tokens and medals, they deserve our support.They also have a more personal feel to them that doesnt come through in the massive Heritage organisation especially with staff turnover as is inevitable.

 

A comment on the Baldwins Auction 26th September will follow.

 

Geejay

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

Geejay,

 

Let me add to your comments.

 

I do not believe the 1934 2/6 price is strong at all. I forgot it was an MS-64. At this grade, I think the price is somewhat weak even though the census counts are somewhat higher than they used to be. I would prefer this coin over the 1925 2/6 at those prices, as I have commented that this coin is over rated versus other dates given its actual scarcity and availability from what I have seen.

 

The trial strike shillings, very weak prices. I believe I have seen them for sale twice before and though I cannot remember the specific grades, the one sale I do remember was for a two coin lot (and maybe even the same coins) for 6000 GBP. I do agree with you that there probably aren't many collectors for them. There is no need to buy them as a substitute for the 1934 circulation strike because this is cheaper coin and not scarce. Second, I have never heard of anyone trying to put together a set of Union patterns. It is pointless given that a disproportionate number of them are owned by ABSA and there are several hundred. If both of these are true, then that only leaves "novelty" buyers. Not much demand at all. I have changed my opinion on these patterns 180 degrees since I started collecting Union.

 

The 1942 pattern farthing also sold in Spink sale #130, though I cannot tell anyone the price.

 

I did not check the 1930 6d but I agree it is a strong price. The coin is very scarce.

 

I do not believe the price for the 1923 RB 1d is low as I interprept from your comments. The coin is "color rare" but as i have said before, it is still a 1923 1D and this coin is probably the most common in high grade for all of Union, as the census currently shows.

 

The same comments apply to the 1925 1/2d. You are once again ignoring the BN specimens. In my prior comments, I mentioned the 1927 and 1928 1d. The fact of the matter is that except for the 1928 1/2d, 1931 1d and 1932 1d, NONE of these bronze are apparently as scarce as most either believed before or think now. I say "apparently" because I make the assumption that there are not that many duplicates in the census, likely at most a few. If you compare the pops of these scarcer KGV bronze in MS to other Union, except for the dates i listed, all now have over 20 MS. This is not even considering the likely additonal coins which are still available to be graded, as both the DNW and Baldwin's sales prove and as I have stated more times than I can even remember.

 

On the 1926 1/, I do not really think the price was that low either. I believe this coin is just worth less than probably most or all here actually believe it should be. The market for Union coins below MS is very weak generally, so actually I think this is about all that could be expected. The second is what I have said many times. From the image only, I do not believe this specimen is a particularly good one. As the listing stated, it was "scuffed". This is not uncommon for AU-58 or even MS, but it might and definitely should have impacted the price.

 

I recall seeing one 1925 wreath 3d for sale in the same grade before, on eBay for $1000. I believe it was Warren Biller (Caselinick) who sold it a long time ago.

 

On the ZAR, since I was not looking to buy them, I never paid any attention. Taking the veld pond you mention, I believe 15,000 GBP is actualy about the same as a recent Heritage sale for this grade at somewhat over $25,000. So actually, I do not think this price is low at all. Yes, I know the coin is held in high esteem and deserverdly so but it is not scarce at all.

 

Lastly, the Rhodesia 1977 1/2c was one of the 71 unsold lots. Above in this topic, I included a detailed write-up explaining why I thought the $1500+ the AU-55 BN realized at Heritage was too much. The DNW coin appeared to be an MS and much better. The first reason I can use to explain why it failed to meet the estimate of 500-700 is that maybe it is "artificially colored" which means it will not grade. The second is that maybe there just aren''t that many collectors of this coin who want it and think it is worth this price, even if only 10 or less supposedly exist. I will leave it to everyone here to guess which is the more likely explanation.

Edited by jwither

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Pierre_Henri

Thank you Georg and Ernesto

 

After our recent Anglo-Boer War trip, I have been struggling to catch up on my workload and had almost no time for reading the last 2 or 3 weeks posts on our forum.

 

Slowly catching my breath and reading all your wonderful posts, I must congratulate both of you on some sterling comments on the recent DNW auction.

 

Wow, I must say that It really take some effort and cross referencing to take in all the information but that I will do that for sure in the next few days to come - its always nice to see top collectors on top of their game!

 

Well done again guys!

 

Pierre

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geejay50

Hi Everybody,

 

Thanks for your support. I really appreciate some feedback on what I write, good or bad.

 

The Baldwins Auction Number 85 featured The Arielle Collection of British Colonial Coins. I dont know where the name came from and it would be interesting to know some details around the person/s who had the patience, foresight and love not to mention money to put together such a wonderful collection. One can only stand back in awe of this achievement for one feels insignificant in one's numismatic efforts alongside such giants.

 

The Auction covered coins from no fewer than 11 countries colonised by Britain ie British West Africa (Nigeria) ,Sierra Leone,Gold Coast (Ghana),St Helena,South Africa,Rhodesia,East Africa,Mombasa,Zanzibar,Mauritius and Seychelles. When I say 'covered' from my limited knowledge on these other countries, it was plain to see that what was offered was really much of the finest ever minted in history. I view the past auction therefore with much respect and what made it especially interesting for collectors was that most of the coins were not encapsulated and in spite of that had still survived in such pristine condition.

 

It was for me also heartening to see that Rhodesian coins in top and sometimes unique condition received prices equaling and even exceding coins of similar scarcity from South Africa. Who the bidders were and from where will never be known but the fact is there is plenty of overseas interest in that country's coins. This contradicts what some have said in this forum about that country. I will just mention a few of those prices later.

 

Whatever I say here is only a tiny opinion on a very big picture therefore and I welcome other insights.

 

To start with South Africa and rightly so, the first coin made for indigenous people was offered ie Griqua Halfpence in choice EF (probably AU) sold for 1600GBP or R32,000 with Buyers premium. I have a price for an XF coin (later graded VF25) sold at a St James' Auction in 2009 - R26,824 so the price fetched was probably a bit low.

 

The only Griqua coin was followed by a string of Lauer Patterns - 12 in number (Griqua, Transvaal, Free State and Cape) and these fetched mostly decent prices most well over 1000GBP (R20,000) and one has to mention the three Nickel Free State Patterns two of which went a lot higher. The unique Aluminium FreeState Pattern Penny (HO12) which has an unknown mintage, has never been graded at NGC/PCGS fetched 4000 GBP without another bid - the auctioneer sounded surprised ! .I dont know if everyone realised quite how special this coin was???

The second Nickel Free State Pattern (HO17) with a mintage of 20 fetched even more at 4800GBP (R96,000). In retrospect the first coin was a bargain. The third Nickel Free State Pattern (HO17) was a worn coin and only fetched 800GBP.

 

What followed the Patterns were a bunch of nice ZAR Silver coins (no gold) with a few obviously Mint State ones that fetched stronger prices than the graded coins one sees on the ebay market - for example: 1892 Threepence in unc 2100GBP or R42,000 (compare this with an MS62 PCGS coin on ebay that has been on a buy now at $1395 for a month on ebay). Other prices of interest I thought were a 1892 Florin in unc 1600GBP or R32,000, 1896 Halfcrown in Unc (lovely toning ) 760GBP or R15,200.There was a nice EF 1895 Shilling that got a deserving price of 1050 GBP or R21,000 which i think most will agree has been selling far too cheaply on Bob in AU grades of late (AU58 fetched only R5,800 on bob) given its scarcity !!

 

What followed the ZAR was a dazzling array of Union Copper and Silver some of exceptional quality. Of interest was a specimen strike 1928 1/4d that fetched 3000GBP or R60,000 - would this be another MS67? (there are two graded already) or is this a proof strike? A 1934 Farthing in Proof followed soon after and was sold for 1550 GBP or R31,000 (24 minted). Copper farthings and halfpences followed in grades between ef and unc. Of note to me was a pair of halfpennies from 1926 and 1928 in ef that fetched 840 GBP or R16,800 and when I looked at the 1928 member, I noticed the exceptionally poor strike of the reverse that is typical of a subsection of this coin that i feel prevents an MS grade even if there is no wear. The 1928 Halfpenny remains one of the toughest halfpennies to find in MS.

 

A set of three unc halfpennies in 1939,1938 and 1937 fetched 400GBP or R8000 and I thought the 1939 member was the main reason behind that price - it is very tough to find in unc. The previous DNW auction had a specimen that had a dubious spot on one side - lot 2189.

 

The full Pennies that followed deserve a few comments especially the pair of Unc 1926 and 1927 Pennies that fetched 1250 GBPs or R25,000 (maybe the 1926 was AU?) that price redeemed the low price of the MS64 1927 Penny fetched in the earlier DNW sale (450GBP). A 1931 Proof Penny fetched a good price of 980 GBP or R19,600. I paid 532USD for a Pf63BN coin in 2005 or R3724.

A 1933 Penny in ?Brown Unc fetched 1050 GBP or R21,000 - that is a vastly higher price than what the MS63BN coin fetched at DNW earllier (200GBP or R4000).

The market went crazy on a Gem Unc 1935 Penny at 620 GBP or R13,000 i think you will also aggree but I think the fast pace of the auctioneer had a lot to do with the pressure on prices unlike DNW.

 

Next came an unremarkable bunch of threepences and then sixpences. I thought in today's prices, 280 GBP or R5600 was too much to pay for an EF 1923 6d. A flat bargain came the way of an astute buyer with a threesome of 6ds 1940,41 and 42. Both 1940 and 1942 were choice unc and the 1940 6d in particular is really tough to find in Unc. That lot was sold for just 45 GBPs or R900 !!.

Shillings followed , an Unc 1923 Shilling fetched 400 GBPs - probably OK.Other union shillings fetched average prices but of note was a Choice Unc 1937 Shilling that fetched 340 GBPs. That is a scarce coin - there is only one MS65 that has been graded, very different to its cousin the 1938 Shilling. Lot 3368 a so called 1945 Shilling had a picture where the 5 was actually a 3 !! ? mistake in description.

Florins followed , of note a 1924 Unc toned coin for 720 GBP or R14,400 and a BU 1934 Florin that went for 450 GBP or R9000. Coinguide SA has a price of R27,000 for an MS63 coin sold in 2012. A 1937 Florin PCGS graded MS65 pop2 fetched 340 GBP - possibly a bit low. A 1939 Florin in BU fetched 540 GBPs or R10,800.There were others and I have prices if people want to know send me a PM.

Halfcrowns followed and of note a 1935 2/6 in BU fetched only 540GBP - given the scarcity of this coin in unc (equivalent to 1934 2/6 - 11 in MS) this coin should have gone well over 1000GBP. The market responded to the next coin a Gem Unc 1936 2/6 at 600GBP - this coin I feel is destined to be the next pop1 (MS65/66) I would welcome the owner to share with us the grade please??

The 1946 Halfcrown ?AU I thought went cheap at 240 GBP and should it be an Unc will be an absolute bargain !!

The pair of 1947 Florin and 2/6 in Unc were great value for the bidder at 640 GBP or R12,800. The 2/6 is worth that alone and is exceptionally scarce. Interestingly the 2/6 offered has a very poor reverse strike very similar to the MS64 that is in my collection.

The 1948 2/6 in BU fetched 240GBP a fair price.

To end South Africa were a set of Union proof sets : 1938 in top condition fetched 2800 GBP or R56,000, 1943 fetched 1600 GBP, 1944 fetched 900 GBP ,1945 960GBP and 1946 fetched 1050 GBP. I thought the 1943 set went for a strong price but the rest went for lowish prices.

 

 

Just a short incomplete note on the Rhodesian coins. There were many unique proof coins in all metals besides gold that were very rare and fetched prices that seemed good. Tellingly there were no unsold lots that I saw and everything was auctioned. A 1954 Penny in Gem Unc was sold for 400GBP - this coin is exceptionally scarce with just 5 graded in MS at NGC. The 1939 2/- in Good EF (AU) fetched 460GBPs - there is no MS graded so far and I paid R4307 at Heritage in 2012. The 1946 2/- in Choice Unc fetched 640 GBP or R12,800. A 1954 2/- in Unc fetched 720 GBP.

If you think the South African 1939 Proof Set is expensive, the Rhodesian 1939 Proof Set fetched 6000 GBP or R120,000 with 10 sets struck !! A 1955 Bronze and Copper Nickel Proof Set fetched 4000 GBP or R80,000 with 10 sets minted. A first year of strike 1932 Proof Set went for 1350 GBP or R27,000 - I bought a graded set in 2009 for R7637 on ebay from China.A graded 1937 Proof set fetched 2500 GBP or R50,000 - I have no comparative price on this do you?

 

I hope you find all this not too monotonous and at least useful in parts?

 

Comments are most welcome

 

Geejay

 

 

 

 

Edited by geejay50

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jwither

I cannot see the Baldwin's prices (yet) but will add my preliminary comments.

 

Let me make a few about Southern Rhodesia since I am the one who believes that the interest in these coins is not that great. Many of the coins in this auction have not come up for sale often or to my recollection, not at all which can result in high prices. Just go look at the Millenia collection sold by Goldbergs about 5 years ago and you will see what I mean. Many of those coins have since sold for less. The reason for this is that auctions like this are intended and often succeed in getting buyers to pay prices they would never pay otherwise. It is not uncommon at all if the buyer incorrectly assumes that the coins will "never" be up for sale again. The price for the 1939 proof set is probably reasonable. Others such as the 1932 set and the 1946 2/, hardly. I have seen both many times before and even though the 1946 2/ is actually somewhat scarce, it is not equal to comparable Union coins which sell for less than this price.

 

One other general comment I can make is that there is no real correlation between the catalog and prospective TPG grades. It is something which has been discussed by me many times here before. The other general comment I can make is that while Geejay's post expresses some excitement over some of these coins (whether SA or otherwise), I am going to claim right here and now that these are not their "real" prices in many instances anyway. This especially applies to those which are "too high" but maybe also to those which are "too low".

 

Think anyone is going to pay 620 GBP for any 1935 1d anyone else owns? Only if it is RD or maybe a new "conditional" rarity which I did not see. From what I can see, it is a very nice coin but overpriced at that level.

 

The price on the 1933 1d in DNW might have been too low but this one I believe was too high. Even if the coin ultimately grades MS-65, I think it is at best "fair" value, at least today. As I said in my last comments on the DNW sale, the 1933 is not as scarce as most apparently believed before. In this instance, I could see that there are in the vicinity of 40-50 unique (excluding duplicates) MS specimens in existence, as the CoinGuide SA I believe estimates. Given the number of likely "serious" Union collectors at this time, I do not see that this potential supply is really that low. It will only be "low" if there are more "serious" collectors than I believe or if there are (far) more in the future. As an MS-65, it does quality as an "investment" quality coin which the MS-63 in my opinion does not anymore. Maybe that will make a difference.

 

The price on the 1937 2/ was cheap and I agree the 1/ is likely to grade MS-65 and maybe has an outside chance at a 66.

 

I think the 1935 2/6 might have sold low because no picture was included in the catalog. Or at least, I could not see one.

 

In my opinion, the 1923 6D is MS but even if not, is not remotely close to an EF.

 

I also noticed the error on the "1945" shilling. The coin in the picture is a 1943.

 

I considered bidding on the 1946 2/6 but do not believe it is an MS. I admit I have a hard time telling whether there is wear on the hair in the portrait sometimes (even when inspecting the coins in person) but in my opinion, this coin is not MS. I did not see anything in the image to indicate it was really any better than the one offered by DNW which I also think is an AU. This is also one of the coins which I believe might not grade, which could account for its low price. This is why I did not bid on it.

 

On your comments on the 1947 2/6 reverse, this should definitely penalize the price of any coin that has this defect. Normally, KGVI coins have a strong strike on the reverse and less than full detail on the obverse. Those with full hair detail in the portrait deserve a premium and maybe even a big one because.a strong strike makes a big difference in the overall appearance as far as i am concerned.

 

I agree with your comments on the 1936 2/6. The Baldwin's images were less than optimal (as usual) but this coin appeared to be very high quality. I am not sure though that it will achieve a very high slab grade, even though it is likely actually better than others if it does not. Many of these coins require conservation or apparently could use it. The luster and strike appear superior but I cannot tell whether the dark spots on the portrait are residue that can be removed or something else, like contact marks. If the latter, then its likely that the grade will be penalized somewhat for it.

 

I consider the price on the 1938 set low but not the 1944-1946. These seem to sell for $3000 graded now which I think is too much because there is an ample supply of them. The 1943 from my experience is much harder too find and I believe it deserves to sell for a greater premium than indicated by the difference in the mintage.

 

I bid on a few lots in this sale myself, none of which you mentioned except for the 1937 1/. I have only bid in a Baldwin's sale before once and the lot I won was cleaned and obviously so even though Baldwin's said nothing about it. Since the images were poor in some instances, I suspect that the coins which realized low prices did so for this or a similar reason, at least in some instances. I did and do not feel comfortable bidding absentee on their lots and paying high prices. I would only do so if I first had the opportunity to inspect the coins in person myself or had someone represent me. It will not surprise me if I win some of my lots and find that they are problem coins.

 

What I describe above, this is the risk that I am not going to take and which I suspect more than a few who did bid high and won these lots took. I expect that it will be "hit or miss" in terms of what they actually get. If you do not mind surprises (good or bad), then auctions like these are fine for you but they are not for me. Comparing these two auctions to the DNW September 2008, I was able to win many lots of comparable quality for relatively nominal prices because the competition was much less. But at these prices, there is no possibility that I was going to bid "strong" and then buy a "dog" as I suspect will happen in more than a few instances. I would rather buy coins in my other series from a source like Heritage who I believe is much better at disclosing how the coins in their actions actually look. They do not sell many raw coins but when they do, this is another reason why their prices are generally better..

Edited by jwither

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jwither

I just checked my account in Sixbid and I can see the results of the lots with my bids. The only lot I won is the 1939 2/6 at 55 GBP. This is an example of a coin which needs conservation, which could be either AU or MS but which could simultaneously either be a winner or a loser. Who knows what lies beneath that "clutter"? But at this price, it was worth the risk of the downside which I think is an "AU Details".

 

One other lot I did attempt to win was the one with the 1931 2/6. I would say that 300 GBP is a very strong price for this coin, actually probably far too much despite its extreme scarcity. (The lot did include a circulated 1934 2/6, but I assume everyone here knows that this coin is worth no more than "melt".). Considering that the DNW 1931 1/ NGC G4 sold for 170 GBP and it is actually a much higher quality coin than this one (yes, DESPITE the grade), I believe that coin is probably somewhat of a better deal. I see no reason why this 2/6 will not grade but if the 1931 1/ was graded correctly, this one is at most an AG-3. Throwing in the buyer's premium, shipping and the grading fee, I do not see an NGC AG-3 (or even a G-4) being worth almost $800 USD. It is a coin I want for my collection even in one of these grades but nowhere near this price.

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geejay50

Hi Ernesto and all,

 

One of the reasons why I think there is a higher price paid for say a raw unc 1892 threepence than the far cheaper graded MS 62 coin that is still unsold on ebay is the following.

 

I think people who love coins and havent the time and patience to wade through the endless amounts of rubbish on ebay to find something worthwhile simply ignore the internet and pay their attention to key auctions like DNW , Baldwins, St James or Heritage. Many of the strongest bids came from the auction rooms themselves so I can only assume there were buyers who had had a look at the coins and had the time and probable money to win the auctions.

 

The interest in Rhodesia remains and in my own admittedly limited acquisitions, I have made value gains that are nothing to be sneezed at and certainly equal or better than many South African coins have given. One example that Ernesto didnt think much of a 1946 2/- I bought raw in 2009 for R4500, had it conserved and graded at MS63 by NGC - pop2 - an Unc specimen fetched 640 GBP or R12,800 or almost 3 times what I paid.

 

My two cents worth !

 

 

Geejay

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