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geejay50

Scarce Coin Watch

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jwither

Geejay,In my opinion, it all depends upon why someone wants to buy coins from a series such as Southern Rhodesia on whether they represent a good or even reasonable value. From a strictly financial standpoint, I am really not in a position to say so one way or the other, and I am not sure that anyone else really is either. To my knowldege, there is effectively a zero "investment" market for these coins. And if this is not correct, then I suspect that the only buyers who have that mindset are those in South Africa who are looking for alternatives to South African ZAR and Union coins now that the prices have risen substantially. I doubt that many (if any) locals think in those terms and the same applies to expatriates or collectors of Commonwealth coinage either.I do not see any significant increase in demand within Zimbabwe, ever really. Just as with the majority black population in South Africa who I do not expect to collect ZAR or Union coinage in any numbers, I see no reason why the majority population in Zimbabwe would either. Whatever local demand exists is presumably almost (if not entirely) exclusively from the white population and there are both fewer of them as time passes (because they leave the country) and given the environment there, they have far bigger things to concern themselves with than whether these coins do or do not represent good value. If I were one of them, the LAST THING I would be doing now is putting any significant money into ANY coins held locally.Outside of Zimbabwe, I do not see any real reason why there should be a substantial increase in demand either. I do not know what the preferences of Commonwealth collectors are between one country and series. I would say that of the obscure countries (excluding the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa Union), that there is probably more demand for Southern Rhodesia than say, British East Africa or British West Africa. But that is not really saying much.None of these countries really have much of a "series" to even collect. I suppose that can be either a good or bad thing, depending upon your point of view. I suppose where it helps is that by developed world standards, any collector of modest means can (In theory) go out and buy every coin. I could do so if I wanted, I just do not because I have far better things to do with my money.But what I would not do is think that those coins are rare or particularly desirable just because of the census numbers or mintages.As I have tried to explain many, many times, for most coins, the census does not really tell us anything about their scarcity. I do not believe that anyone on this forum agrees with this statement, but the evidence from collecting generally which I have provided here far better supports my position than the opposite.Taking a coin like the 1939 2/, I assume it is scarce or rare because others who are supposed to or know more say that it is. After I wrote the last post, I went and checked one of my dealer price lists. They actually listed TWO 1939 2/, one UNC and one "XF+". The ask prices were $650 and $350. I suspect that the first would grade MS and the second AU. On the 1946 2/, I have seen it quite a few times, even without looking for it.But in the instance of the 1939 2/, obviously, it is not in the census now, even thoug it is or supposedly is rare. It is the same with a coin like that1941 Sarawa cent or the pillars I collect. There is really no way to know how available most of these coins are I know that those pillar minor I profiled are very hard to find and scarcer than most would believe, but hardly anyone else is going to know that because they pay no attention to them. The opposite is going to be true for coins that others collect and I do not.But invariably what i can tell you is that for MOST COINS, they are more available than most people believe them to be. They are out there - somewhere - waiting to be "discovered", owned by collectors who do not consider it anyone else's business what they have or by non-collectors who are mostly indifferent to them, like that 1931 Union MS set I have commented on several times. I do not know the owner of this set but someone a SA collector whom I know well does. This owner knows the set is rare but apparently doe snot know anything about NGC or what the set is even worth except that it is "a lot".The primary exception to what I just described are those that are worth a lot of money and that come up for sale reasonably often. The majority of these are from the United States. We can know in general terms how available most expensive US coins are because it is the most developed market commercially, the prices are higher than anywhere else, it is either the most researched field in numismatics or at least among the most and the sales of these coins have been tracked repeatedly in many instances for a century or more. These attributes I described either do not apply at all to most coins from other countries for a country such as South Africa, only selectively so (VERY selectively).Once on the NGC Message Boards, the subject of the availability of "key" dates came up. One member replied that for a coin like the 1909-S VDB cent, there are probably 50,000 still in existence out of an original mintage of $486,000

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jwither

But what I would not do is think that those coins are rare or particularly desirable just because of the census numbers or mintages. As I have tried to explain many, many times, for most coins, the census does not really tell us anything about their scarcity. I do not believe that anyone on this forum agrees with this statement, but the evidence from collecting generally which I have provided here far better supports my position than the opposite.Taking a coin like the 1939 2/, I assume it is scarce or rare because others who are supposed to or know more than I do say that it is. After I wrote the last post, I went and checked one of my dealer price lists. They have actually listed TWO 1939 2/, one UNC and one "XF+". The ask prices were $650 and $350. I suspect that the first would grade MS and the second AU. On the 1946 2/, I have seen it quite a few times, even without looking for it. But in the instance of the 1939 2/, obviously, it is not in the census now, even though it is scarce or rare. It is the same with a coin like that 1941 Sarawak cent or the pillars I collect. There is really no way to know how available most of these coins are I know that those pillar minor I profiled are very hard to find and scarcer than most would believe, but hardly anyone else is going to know that because they pay no attention to them. The opposite is going to be true for coins that others collect and I do not. But invariably what I can tell you is that for MOST COINS, they are more available than most people believe them to be. They are out there - somewhere - waiting to be "discovered", owned by collectors who do not consider it anyone else's business what they have or by non-collectors who are mostly indifferent to them, like that 1931 Union MS set I have commented on several times. I do not know the owner of this set but a SA collector whom I know well does. This owner knows the set is rare but apparently does not know anything about NGC or what the set is even worth except that it is "a lot".The primary exceptions are those that are worth a lot of money and that come up for sale reasonably often. The majority of these are from the United States. We can know in general terms how available most expensive US coins are because it is the most developed market commercially, the prices are higher than anywhere else, it is either the most researched field in numismatics or at least among the most and the sales of these coins have been tracked repeatedly in many instances for a century or more. These attributes I described either do not apply at all to most coins from other countries or for a country such as South Africa, only (VERY) selectively so. Once on the NGC Message Boards, the subject of the availability of US "key" dates came up. One member replied that for a coin like the 1909-S VDB cent, there are probably 50,000 still in existence out of an original mintage of 486,000. Where did this number come from? It was a guess on his part of course. But the point he was making is that, as common and expensive as this coins is, apparently he and others he knew still saw it all the time ungraded. Given that the scarcity of this coin was known almost from the beginning, it is not infeasible that this number is at least directionally accurate. Yes, even though the combined census has about 5,000 or slightly more at this time.I will close by saying that if someone wants to buy these coins because of their scarcity, they might want to consider others such as that 1933 New Zealand proof set. That set is both much harder to find than one such as the 1937 Rhodesia (which I have seen many times before) and far more desirable. I also believe it is a much better “investment” because the demand for it should be much greater.

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jwither

There is a porblem wiht this site and I cannot edit my posts.

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geejay50

Hi Ernesto,

 

I understand your thoughts about the past poor performance of Southern Rhodesian Coins. It has been my impression over the last two years or so though that the number of coins graded by NGC (more so than PCGS) for Southern Rhodesia has increased markedly.

 

From my own collection my records of pop reports of graded coins at time of purchase are unfortunately incomplete but here are some stats from 2009:

1935 Halfcrown First coin graded AU58 (Pop 1) - now there are 3 coins graded by NGC

1939 Shilling MS61 Finest Known of two graded - now there are 4 coins graded by NGC

 

Its a pity I did not record grading figures of especially the 1932 coins at time of purchase because it is especially the first year of strike that draws the most interest in any country's issue.

 

If people have coins graded , it is my conclusion that they value the country enough to do so. Unfortunately NGC and PCGS do not tell one how the grading figures have changed in the last months or year - that would be useful in knowing which way a country's coins are going.

 

There will always be collectors whatever the racial makeup of any country.It is not true to say that just because the majority of people were oppressed as they were in South Africa , they will not be interested in coins of the old regime. Coins were innocent bystanders in the equation - used by oppressor and oppressed alike.They have traditionally been hoarded and preserved by all people everywhere going back to Ancient Greece.

 

Although I am not a Stamp collector, it does seem from looking at Stamp Auctions that Southern Rhodesia and British South African Stamps have a lot of interest . So why not the Coins too? Bank Notes from erstwhile Southern Rhodesia also seem to attract collectors.One would welcome an input from Stamp or Note collectors.

 

My thoughts and thanks for your interest.

 

Geejay

 

 

 

 

Edited by geejay50

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Pierre_Henri

Rhodesia is doing fine ...

 

Rhodesiana is huge at the moment - I cannot find enough Rhodesian material to list and they are sold before I blink my eyes.

 

The buyers are mainly now-Yank expats from Rhodesia but there are also (for some unknown reason) very much demand from the far East. I cannot figure that one out - how many ex Rhodies left for China or other Eastern countries?

 

Whatever - anything to do with Rhodesia is hot in demand at the moment - they truly are.

 

Pierre

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jwither

Geejay,My last post was all garbled and hard to read. But what I was trying to communicate is that no, though I cannot say one way or the other whether Southern Rhodesia coin are or are not a good "investment", there is no compeeling case to make that they are or will be. If someone wants to buy them because they like them and can afford to do so. But not otherwise.On the NGC and PCGS population reports, obviously the people who submitted the coins for grading value them. that is obvious. But the absolute census numbers do not really tell us anything alone about how scarce these coins are or are not just as the counts from most other countries do not. In the examples you gave, there is no possibility of extrapolating the scarcity of those coins. Those coins may be scarcer than I or other believe or they may not be. To believe that there is is simply to fall for the illogical fallacy that most people prefer to have their coins graded when it is obvious that this is not true. I suspect that most of these coins have been graded by those in South Africa and possibly the United States. All I can tell you is that, if this one dealer had those two 1939 2/, then it is likely that there are others out there available regardless of how few are in the census.In terms of collecting by the majority population, I do not believe that many will collect them though I agree that this does not mean none. It would not take many of them to puch the prices higher anyway for the simple reason that you and I could probably manipulate their prices higher between the two of us given the puny size of this market.If I were looking to actively buy coins for "investment" now which I am NOT, I would still look for others. The example I gave of the 1933 New Zealand set was exactly that, an example. It sold for $17.600 AUD in 2006 and maybe it would sell for 25,000 AUD now. If this is accurate, it is a vastly better deal than the combination of 1932 and 1937 sets that could be bought for the same money. The problem is that this set is just not available while these others are.

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ATOMICSQUIRREL

Hi'

 

Can anybody help me with some info on this token? I saw a few here on BOB and a 6d but no 9d. I cant find any info on the net either.Value?

CSC_0281.JPG.37a8c34a7686bc1cdace0403b0b80b7b.JPG

CSC_0280.JPG.2617df5ab0b47a2d448f6bac8538e916.JPG

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ATOMICSQUIRREL

Have any of you ever seen a Tickey like this?

Look at the huge gap between 19 & 47. The 47 is a bit crooked as well.

CSC_0291.jpg.cd75944257d5a42143bb9ec5459bdf14.jpg

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republikein

There will always be collectors whatever the racial makeup of any country.It is not true to say that just because the majority of people were oppressed as they were in South Africa , they will not be interested in coins of the old regime. Coins were innocent bystanders in the equation - used by oppressor and oppressed alike.

 

"Racial", "oppressed", "people", "regime" - I am amazed to find these political terminology on the BOB coin forum, as they were the exact same words spoken in Bloemfontein at the ANC100 celebrations! Not that I was present...

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geejay50
What SA coins were considered valuable 50 years ago?

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e71/Pierrex/ValuableCoins.jpg

The 1959 Shilling had me frowning ?

 

Pierre

 

Good one Pierre,

 

Its amazing how you manage to find these old Newspaper Cuttings. With grading reports we now have a far better idea what is really scarce but the author of that list certainly got it right with most of the difficult to find coins.So what if the 1924 Half Penny, 1923 Penny and some other coins known to be fairly common are there.

 

Keep it up

 

Geejay

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jwither

That list actually excludes many scarce coins. For example, it excludes the 1931 florin which is easily one of the scarcest Union coins, probably not less than second or third.

 

I have a copy of the 1962 Kaplan Price Guide published by Spinks. I'm not sure if these prices are representative of what coins actually sold for but presumably they reflect the general price structure. And yes, the relative scarcity implied is completely wrong in many instances, at least compared to today. But then, it is possible that many coins were not nearly as scarce in 1962 because that was before the majority of the meltings occurred.

 

To give a few examples, the 1923 and 1924 1D are listed at 10/ and each is twice the price of all other KGV, including the 1932 which I consider to be the scarcest with the 1931 second. The most valuable 1D was a variety of the 1942 (which I have never even heard of) which actually sounds more like a mint error since it was a misstruck coin. I would pay very little premium for such a coin because the market for Union errors is basically nonexistent.

 

The most valuable Union coin (non-gold) was the 1959 5/ at 90/. (The 1931 silver have no price.) Yes, even more than the 1925 2/ with a value of 60/. The latter coin was also valued lower than 2/6 such as the 1948. My guess is that, at the time, these values were primarily based upon the reported mintage figures even though it is likely that in 1962, a coin like the 1959 5/ was far more common than it is today.

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geejay50

Underrated Union Coins - 1957 Threepence,

 

Hi all,

 

I would like to bring to your attention an elusive coin that has had me actively searching for about a year now. It was up until a few weeks ago an irritating gap in my otherwise respectable Union Collection. The 1957 Threepence Mintage 1 893 736 - NGC graded 14 coins only. PCGS nil . I have found a very few damaged and poor specimens on Bidorbuy that would not have graded well if at all.

 

My search ended happily on ebay when I found a BU specimen in the USA. There were two other lesser quality coins listed by the same seller.

 

The mintage isnt a problem but decent survivors are. There are some other coins in this era that are giving collectors headaches too.

 

This coin has a full strike and apart from one tiny hairline on the obverse is worthy of MS64 at least in my opinion.What do you think?

 

Geejay

 

 

58f5a72ecb886_19573dBUObv.jpg.d664bfe88f744e7aad09e0803ce53702.jpg

58f5a72ec5ac4_19573dBURev.jpg.98bd733860026a576740aa91cf0de68b.jpg

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jwither

Geejay,

 

I believe that your grade of MS-64 seems accurate for that coin. I do not have any of my QE II graded coins with me but given what I see on the portrait, I would agree with that grade.

 

I do not think this coin (or others like it) are necessarily common, but I think it is reasonable to expect that there are probably several hundred in MS still in existence (at least) depending upon the date. But since grades lower than MS-63 for this design are not appealing much of the time, not many that collectors will actually like.

 

From this series, I have owned two MS-66 (the 1953 1/ and 1960 5/) which I sold. Now, I have one MS-65 (1953 2/), several MS-64 and a few more MS-63. I also have quite a few more MS that are not graded but none of the better dates are higher than MS-63 in my opinion. I just cannot remember what most of them are other than I know I have all of the 1/ and 1D, several rolls of the 1959 1/2D and 1959 1D in MS RB and multiples of the 1954 1/2D also in MS RB.

 

I cannot tell you exactly which ones are actually harder to find outside the census because I never really tried to find all of them. I am confident that I have seen every one of them in MS at least several times since I started collecting, but do not recall specifics. Because images are often so poor, I got tired of buying coins that looked much better than they actually were. I would receive the coin and then when I looked under magnification, I would see the typical dismal striking quality on the portrait.

Edited by jwither

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4kids
Underrated Union Coins

 

Underrated in my opinion is a underrated statement. I was part of a group of collectors and some dealers about two years ago when the values and availability of higher grade QEII was discussed. The following was forthcoming:

 

1. Few or no people known ever collected this series mainly because of the poor design and strike of the coin. Many believed it to be an inferior series to the rest of the SA coins.

2. Some claimed that they never even considered the series for collection till recently, Peter Wilson said it does not form part of his collection.

3. All dealers present said that because there is/was no demand at the time, they simply had them melted as the silver value mostly exceeded what they could get for them from collectors.

4. One dealer claimed that the coins in this series is still widely available and I challenged him to find me any amount of the silvers in UNC condition and I will gladly pay his asking price within reason. A challenge that he could not fulfill.

5. I have seen very few, and I mean very few UNC specimens on offer both local and abroad.

 

In my opinion the most rare are the larger silvers in the dates 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958 but across the range it is extremely difficult to built a set in UNC, even some of the bronze pieces are extremely difficult and challenging to find.

 

My most recent NGC submission was for a complete set QEII coins with the only following coins that graded lower than MS64. All other coins graded MS64/65/66.

 

1953 6D MS63

1954 1S MS63

1955 1D MS62BN

1955 1S MS63

1957 2S MS63

1957 2/5 MS63

1958 2S MS63

1958 1S MS63

 

The 1957 3D graded MS65

 

Regards

Jan

Edited by 4kids

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Pierre_Henri

Queen Elizabeth II SA Union Series

 

The QE2 series of Union Coins in general are not scarce in UNC, but due to their soft strikes, are not receiving high MS grades. Grades from MS64 and up should be snapped up by those interested in the series.

 

A friend of mine is sending a large part of his QEII collection for grading to NGC:- a collection build up over 2 decades, so I am particularly interested in the outcome.

 

I foresee a growing interest in this series when, and it seems to be very eminent, QE2 out reign (in terms of years on the throne) Queen Victoria in a very few years’ time.

Now THAT would be a record wouldn’t it?

 

Pierre

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jwither

Whether the QEII series is under rated depends the definition being used. These coins are in certain instances "grade" scarce and I would agree that this is MS-64 or above. I do not believe though that they are so from a financial perspective for the most part to any significant extent.

 

Coins that are MS-63 or below are unlikely to appreciate much for a few reasons. The first is that despite the likely survival rates, there are probably too many of them still in existence given current or likely future demand. I do not see that a significantly larger number of collectors will want to pay much higher prices for them given the way these coins look.

 

Even though the survival rates are low, the absolute number of survivors is probably not low at all for most of these coins. For MS, I used "several hundred" as an estimate but that is likely the absolute minimum and probably in most instances, it is some multiple. The correlation between mintage and apparent estimated survivors in South African coins differs from what exists in the US, but I would still say that with later coins like these, that the lower mintages are likely to have higher survival rates than what seems to be apparent for KGV and KGVI. But however many actually exist, there is zero possibility of extrapolating this from the NGC and PCGS census data.

 

The most common coins from what I see are the 1959 1/2D and 1D. I myself probably own at least 100 of each in MS RB and I have seen them many times on eBay and a few times at public auction in "hoards". Another apparently common date is the 1959 3D even in a grade like MS-64. There was an MS-66 specimen for sale on Teletrade a few ago which failed to sell even though the bid was $150. I would not pay anywhere near that price for it. The 1954 1/2D is also A low mintage date, but it is not scarce even in the census in RD and there are likely a large number of others that are available. So is the 1960 2/6 which I have seen many times in MS.

 

With the coins MS-64 or above, I can see the prices going up enough to make them profitable to buy, but almost exclusively as raw coins which are then graded. For example, that 1953 NGC MS-66 Shilling I bought for $4 raw and after paying the grading fee and related costs, I sold it for $200. I see some opportunity for this coin to be worth more but much less proportionately, like maybe $500 ten years from now or slightly more.

 

With coins in MS-64 or MS-65, most of these coins are still probably not going to be scarce enough to be worth "big" money and I do not see them selling for much higher or exorbitant multiples to what I believe are going to be low prices for most MS-63 coins and below. As another example, that 1953 NGC MS-65 2/ I own, another one sold on eBAY recently for all of $15 or less than the grading fee. I probably should have bought it. The buyer at that price might be able be able to sell it now for some multiple of this price, but given the unpredictable price variance between sales, the next buyer might pay a lot more which would make it far less profitable.

 

The main exceptions to what I described are likely going to be for coins which are later determined to actually be much scarcer than others in the series. I do not believe this is known now for most of these coins.

Edited by jwither

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ATOMICSQUIRREL

Hi Geejay,

 

In your opinion what grading do think this 3d would fetch?

CSC_0271.JPG.dfc7e2aa0f7686c9a7b5aa8d6f14c7c6.JPG

 

I am sure the two black marks can be removed, they are not scratches.

There is almost no wear on the reeding or landing.

 

Ps: I need some tips on photographing coins, i struggle to get nice photos like you guys.

I was thinking of making a light box to photograph my coins in.

CSC_0270.JPG.64b5673566d7dada9e55c1ba520fb01b.JPG

Edited by ATOMICSQUIRREL

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kimbo11
Hi Geejay,

 

In your opinion what grading do think this 3d would fetch?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2691[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]2692[/ATTACH]

 

I am sure the two black marks can be removed, they are not scratches.

There is almost no wear on the reeding or landing.

 

Ps: I need some tips on photographing coins, i struggle to get nice photos like you guys.

I was thinking of making a light box to photograph my coins in.

 

Hi vortechz

 

I scan my coins with a normal scanner. Some people have very nice photos but that is the cheapest way i can get some nice pics.

 

kimbo

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ATOMICSQUIRREL
Hi vortechz

 

I scan my coins with a normal scanner. Some people have very nice photos but that is the cheapest way i can get some nice pics.

 

kimbo

 

Hi' Kimbo

 

I use to scan my coin as well, but angle and lighting is a problem hehehe.

I recently bought a nikon D3100 with a sigma nikon lens 70-300DG but i am not even an amateur photograper, i am still learning.

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kimbo11

Hi vortechz

 

Yea me to lol

I have a Canon something but the flash gets me all the time, you can get nice and close with the macro setting but the light from the flash just kills it

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ATOMICSQUIRREL

Lmao, i know what you mean... 2 bright...2 dark..2 sharp...2 dull...2 fuzzy.

 

I take like 30 photos of 1 coin then i get 1 average photo at best....lol, then its 30 on the other side.:razz:

 

It is much harder then ppl think.

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geejay50
Hi Geejay,

 

In your opinion what grading do think this 3d would fetch?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2691[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]2692[/ATTACH]

 

I am sure the two black marks can be removed, they are not scratches.

There is almost no wear on the reeding or landing.

 

Ps: I need some tips on photographing coins, i struggle to get nice photos like you guys.

I was thinking of making a light box to photograph my coins in.

 

Hi Vortechz,

 

Sorry I have been off line for a while because of work. The 1957 3d looks unc to me but try and use some Siverbrite (Pick n Pay) to get the black off gently.

 

Photographing coins needs simple Tungsten type lighting (not Fluorescent) - I use a Canon SX-130 Digital camera on a small desk top Manfrotto Tripod. As far as Camera settings go, I use the M (manual setting), big exposure setting ,200ASA, and a 10 second delay to avoid camera shake with the coin placed on a matt black surface at abour 30 degrees - you have to improvise a bit to get this. I do try to move the coin during the 10 seconds until I see it ats best under the camera and try to hold it as still as possible for the shot.

 

Hope this helps

 

Geejay

Edited by geejay50

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Pierre_Henri

Burgerspond

 

I was just looking at this listing by Edwaan Galleries ...

Graded Coins - 1874 Burgers Pond Fine Beard NGC XF45 ### Ultra Rare for sale in Johannesburg (ID:59395528)

I was always of the opinion that, with a mintage of less than 1000, the Burgerspond was minted not for circulation purposes, but more as a statement by a fledgling Republic saying “look at us – we are no start-up wannabees – we even have our own gold coins

 

But some of these coins must have circulated – looking at the XF45 grade - alongside the then Victorian British gold Sovereigns for almost 20 years before the ZAR minted the Kruger issues in 1892.

I see on the NGC stats that there is even an F graded, so for some reason, these coins may not have been seen then as “rare” in the years following their issue.

 

Today they are only seen in the collections of the “rich and famous” – but then, a few exchanged hands for only their face value for many years between the impoverished Boers and their trading partners.

Maybe I must invest in a time machine that will take me back to those times and buy up all the rarities, come back, pay back my loan, and stick out my tongue to all of you lucky ones that can afford these stunning rarities ...

Kind regards

Pierre

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Cold Sea

Hi Pierre,

 

Some say that 24 coins were distributed, one to each member of the Volksraad in payment of their first day's work in the session of 1874. President (Dominee) Burgers was given one and the balance were paid out to favoured creditors of the Government. Others say that members of the public could also buy some.

 

When you get that time machine, count me in please, because never mind that Burgers was accused of vanity and breaking the second commandment, or that the production costs were too high (twenty-six shillings for one pound !), I think a visit to the Volksraad is a must.

 

I see that Pilgrim's Rest, where the Burgers gold is reportedly from, is having a Gold Panning competition in October this year. Maybe you do not need that time machine after all.

Edited by Cold Sea

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