2011 is kicking off well for Union of South Africa coins

[Pierre_Henri 96]

As a serious collector of Union of South Africa coins, I keep daily track of all graded coins sold on Bid-or-Buy.

 

It seems like 2011 is kicking of very well: I compared some prices of last year (2010) to coins in the same grade that sold in the first two weeks of 2011...

 

With very few exceptions, all coins are selling for considerably higher sums than last year.

 

The highest price that a 1929 Half Penny in MS63 could get last year was R2550, and the FIRST one that sold this year went for R3475 – a 36% increase.

 

Two 1930 Half Crowns in XF45 sold last year (I have no records of any others in this grade that sold in 2010) for R555 and R700 respectively and the FIRST one that sold this year went for R1405 – that is a 100% increase!

 

The scarce 1933 Half Crown sold last year for R1830 in VF20 and R2322 in VF30. The first 1933 Half Crown sold this year was an ungraded coin (sold by Kobie Venter) – in my opinion the coin is a VF25. It sold R5 short of R3000. Again a massive increase of 44% (and we are comparing two graded coins vs. an ungraded coin)

 

I also had a look at proof sets and the best price realised for a 1956 proof set last year was R902 and the FIRST one this year sold for R1825 – that is more than a 100% increase.

 

I did NOT pick prices randomly to paint a good picture – almost everything seems to be moving up at astonishing prices – maybe Herns new catalogue could be a factor? I just do not know.

 

The only coin I really wanted this month was a 1923 Shilling in AU 58 (I think it was listed by Veto) that went for R1425. For some or other reason I went to bed early that night and missed the biggest bargain I could have hoped for. Last year a similar graded coin went for R2100 so for the one exception (where the price came down) I paid dearly – I was more than willing to pay a premium on last year’s price!

 

O well, at least things are looking good for sellers – but buyers like me seems to catch the short end of King George’s beard every flippen time!

 

Pierre

[geejay50 10]

Hi Pierre,

 

I aggree with you that one cannot always be guaranteed a higher price as you say. It depends a lot on who comes to the auction (and can stay awake or whose ADSL suddenly doesnt work in the floods !!).

 

If one looks at the grading figures of Union Coins, they remain fairly modest in general despite some high mintages. On the other hand a timeous browse through ebay these days will have to look hard to find anything raw (ZAR or Union) of real quality. The cash strapped collector who actually would like a piece of the very expensive ZAR pie has to settle for the next best in the Union area. Actually it is not hard to see that there lies a lot of less expensive high quality coinage that will really appreciate in value in the future as the magic of Numismatics catches on in South Africa as it has in the more developed market of the USA.

 

Probably the only good thing about the Mandela Coin Saga is that it made the man in the South African Street aware of coin grading and NGC. Now he looks at Union coins with the eye of an amateur grader.

 

As I see it a major threat to the growth in Union coin value lies in hoards arriving on the market. That is a risk every collector / investor has to take. Even ZAR coins are not immune, take the Sammy Marks Red Penny hoard that pushed the grading number from 19 to 165 !! Some disreputable sellers still tried to market them at prices as if the pop was 19!! Another more recent upheaval came when someone found a hoard of 1923 Pennies that pushed the finest known graded MS66 coin number from just 1 coin to 23 and the price dropped from R23,000 to around R5000.

 

The unknown quantity is the number of high grade coins that have survived in some high mintage union coin issues - a fair example could be the 1954 Halfcrown - mintage 4 248 911 with 20 coins graded by NGC , nil by PCGS and very few decent raw coins to be seen on the market.The market sems more happy to pay high prices for high grade George V coins like last night, a 1935 MS62 6d fetched $1336 on ebay - that coin has a mintage of 573 485 with 17 coins graded by NGC and 5 by PCGS. It is as if the market 'feels' that the graded coin statistic in the George V instance is a more true reflection of what of good grades is left out there than George VI or Queen Elizabeth II. Time will tell but who can wait? Hindsight is much clearer than foresight !!

 

Regards

 

Geejay

Edited January 18, 2011 by geejay50

[Pierre_Henri 96]

Africa is not a place for Sissies ...

 

As I see it a major threat to the growth in Union coin value lies in hoards arriving on the market. That is a risk every collector / investor has to take.

 

I just bought one thousand 1963 Silver 10c pieces of Jan van Riebeeck in their original Standard Bank bag as received by the customer nearly half a centaury ago

 

It is a sight for sore eyes to look at these brilliant uncirculated coins - but with silver now at astonishing high prices (the silver melting value of these coins are now R17 each) - who will NOT be tempted to just melt them up?

 

Regarding silver coins (or any other) from the era you are referring to - Kruger and George V - I very much doubt it that many hoards are still to appear from nowhere.

 

But as the chances, however slim, are there, you are right in saying that it is a risk that every collector / investor has to take.

 

O well, Africa is not a place for sissies...

 

Pierre

[ryno4711 10]

Hi Pierre

 

 

Yesterday a 1932 6D AU55 sold for an astonishing R1800.00 on auction. Taking into consideration the stats that I have been keeping for the last 2 years of all KGV graded coins that is about 5 times higher than the previous 2 sold of the same grade R405 & R318

 

Looking at MS grades MS62 sold for R952.00 MS63 R1895.00, R1297.00 R667.00 & R800.00 MS65 R4000.00 & R4950.00

 

What is even more amazing is the fact that currently there are 3 1932 6D MS63 coins available ranging from R1 - R792 on auction and one at R1950 on Buy Now.

 

I don't think that the Herns catalogue could have that big an impact on prices as to many other truly scarce graded coins are still selling at bargains compared to previous sales.

 

Regards

 

Ryno

[Pierre_Henri 96]

Hi Pierre

 

Yesterday a 1932 6D AU55 sold for an astonishing R1800.00 on auction. Taking into consideration the stats that I have been keeping for the last 2 years of all KGV graded coins that is about 5 times higher than the previous 2 sold of the same grade R405 & R318

 

Looking at MS grades MS62 sold for R952.00 MS63 R1895.00, R1297.00 R667.00 & R800.00 MS65 R4000.00 & R4950.00

 

What is even more amazing is the fact that currently there are 3 1932 6D MS63 coins available ranging from R1 - R792 on auction and one at R1950 on Buy Now.

 

I don't think that the Herns catalogue could have that big an impact on prices as to many other truly scarce graded coins are still selling at bargains compared to previous sales.

 

Regards

 

Ryno

 

Hi Ryno

 

Here are my stats for last year for graded (only NGC and PCGS) 1932 Sixpences sold on BoB ...

 

AU55 = R318 // MS 62 = R951.50 // MS63 = R1,896.00 // MS 63 = R1,280.00 // MS 63 = R667 //MS 65 = R4,000.01,

 

 

Bar a few rounded off cents, our figures seems to be on par - but you managed to have picked up a few BoB sales that I have missed.

 

 

The thing that bothers me though, is that I only keep track of Bid-or Buy sales, and am truly oblivious to prices realized from other venues like E-Bay and major auction houses like Heritage...

 

 

I really wish Invinci and Aljada could get their long promised catalogue up and running. Maybe this year things will start cooking?

 

Pierre

[jwither 17]

Of the coins listed in the original post, I consider the 1923 1/ a good buy and the 1933 2/6 a reasonable buy. I would not pay the prices listed for the 1929 1/2d, 1930 2/6 or 1956 short set or anywhere near them.

 

The 1929 1/2D is not really a scarce coin at all and neither is the 1956 short set, even if the quality is above average. While the price for the 1930 2/6 is not that high, an XF coin is not particularly attractive and there are better coins that can be bought for the same money.

 

On the question of potential hoards, I am one who believes that they exist for some or many dates (almost always for KGVI and QEII) but to make it clear, I do not believe that in most instances, that they are very large though it is possible that multiple small ones exist for some dates.

 

However, I consider it unlikely that most hoards will show up in the census for quite some time, until prices increase quite a bit from current levels for the cheaper coins. If you look at the populations for many KGVI dates and even some KGV dates, the populations are not large in absolute terms in most instances, but the prices are low anyway. So there is little to be gained financially by submitting even a small hoard of these coins at current prices.

 

The same is true to a lesser extent even for submitting individual coins. While I believe that QEII coins are not that common in MS, especially in higher MS grades, I do believe that they are much more common than indicated by the census data. A coin like the 1954 2/6 is simply not worth that much money and though some have sold for higher prices recently than I have seen before, if this is the new price level, I would expect the census pops to increase because that is the norm for most coins.

Edited January 20, 2011 by jwither

[Pierre_Henri 96]

Coin Hoards still to be discovered. ...

 

I just bought 40 uncirculated 1932 GV Farthings but have no intention of having any of them graded.

 

Even if a handful might grade MS64 - (and sell for R700 each or so), the profit margin is too low to go through all the trouble.

 

So in a kind of funny way, as long as prices remain low, the market is protected against (some) hoards, as the chances are slim that they will be graded and appear in the grading stats.

 

Obviously, if a hoard is discovered of say 1923 UNC Shillings, THEN it would be worth while to have them all graded and then the market would feel the repercussions.

 

But my discovery of a bag full of 1932 George V Farthings in UNC will have hardly any effect on the market

 

Pierre

Edited January 21, 2011 by Pierre_Henri

[jwither 17]

Agreed. In 2009, I bought a group of MS coins that included about a dozen 1940 1D (with the MS-63 RD and two "no stars" currently in the census), half a dozen 1938 3D (including both MS-66 now in the census), a few MS 1942 6D and a few MS 1943 1/S. Most of these coins are now not even worth the bother of sending in for grading, given the prices and the uncertainty of what grades they will get since I buy most of my coins without inspecting them first.

 

The 1932 1/4D is one coin that consider to have several hundred (at least) in MS, though like you say most of them are likely in MS-63 or lower and not particularly attractive coins. I do not know what they sell for now but believe that ultimately even graded, they will not sell for more than the current USD equivalent of a few hundred rand, if that.

 

The same general comments apply to the 1923, 1928, 1931 (Z), and 1935 farthings, 1923 and 1924 1/2D, and 1923 1D though the 1/2D and 1923 1D are likely to always be worth somewhat more. (The last MS-65 1923 1D on Heritage sold for about $115 which is a generous price given its actual scarcity.) There are also many other dates where the coins are not as common as those I listed, but still likely far more common than the census pops indicate today.

 

The scarcer or rare coins, those that are ACTUALLY scarce or rare, I expect to do well, but many of them are not cheap versus comporable material at today's rpices.

Edited January 22, 2011 by jwither

[Guest Guest]

A bucket load of Hut tax tokens

 

Seems like the Union pieces are not the only ones to come up through the woodwork.

 

My ex-Rhodesian informant who has these BSAC hut tax coins (copied below) in his collection states that he knows where there is a bucket load of several hundreds of these pieces buried in Zimbabwe. My trip in September could take an interesting twist

 

And the twenty different BSAC pieces in the thumbnails below from his collection could soon become relatively common...

 

 

Kind regards

 

Scott Balson